How does this make you feel?

Haha, good one!

I'll take statistics over opinions thanks

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Eh, it's not that impressive. 30 years is only 7 elections. Plus it's not a causal model, it's just a statistical analysis of 200 years worth of election data and he spotted some correlations.

Basically, with 7 elections if you were just picking at random from R or D you'd have 1 in 128 change of getting it right every time. Those are not terribly bad odds considering there are probably thousands of political/social science "professors" with abysmal understanding of statistics each with their own pet model.

im going to laugh so hard as he uncucks the nation

If you read the article, the prfo doesnt say that Trump wins. He says that Demo holds 6 keys and Trump likely -could- win by a small margin. Call BS.

MAGA!

Get out, you cuck. Hillary will ruin this country. Trump is the hero we need right now.

How is it not impressive? He had less than one percent chance of doing this.

Incoming leftist character attacks, because when you can't defeat the message, assault the messenger.

I don't know if Trump is going to win or not, but I sure fucking hope he does. All these smug condescending fuckwads are going to kill themselves.

>those desperate hillary shills

lol

Hillary lost when pic related happend. I know you kids are retards, but a 65% estate tax is fucking amazing.

France did a radical one of 40% and it almost ruined their economy before it was quickly scrapped

So, he predicted Obama and still didn't do anything about it.

Trump already won Florida in the early vote

Ah yes, typical political commentary. Fudge your predictions as much as you possibly can and then when the election is over start claiming you actually predicted anything.

Celebrities are backing Trump now because they want to keep their wealth. Fucking Kim Kardashian and Azelia Banks endorsed Trump.

>How is it not impressive?

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infinite_monkey_theorem

This is the same guy who was a complete cuck three years ago. Youre basing your hopes on this fat idiot from newyork to maga? Youre a huge faggot. If you had told me that Donald Trump was running four years ago you and I would of both laughed, but now you trust him? Crazy

>ruin the economy
>tax that affects 0.2% of estates

look at that cute little parkinsons stare

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>This is my first time on Cred Forums
Well hey, welcome buddy! The more the merrier.

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feels good, real good

Thank you for Correcting The Record.

$0.07 has been deposited into your account.

This has literally nothing to do with anything, that theorem is only correct because eventually you run out of incorrect choices and are forced to pick right. However hes guessing and hasnt been wrong yet, the complete opossite of your theory you probably heard it 7th grade math.

Im spooked becuz trump will probably nuke my third world shit hole country and I live there and shit :((((((

Goodbye user.

Ive alway heard this as "the god theory" where when given an infinite amount of time, a regular human could eventually learn everything ever and become god.

a small price to pay for a better world, sorry user, may i ask which one?

Cred Forums

Where economists like to hang out

>However, the probability of a universe full of monkeys typing a complete work such as Shakespeare's Hamlet is so tiny that the chance of it occurring during a period of time hundreds of thousands of orders of magnitude longer than the age of the universe is extremely low (but technically not zero)

I like you.

Did you know that we Europeans have an animal predicting the outcome of every soccer championship playing?

You have hundreds of animals predicting the ongoing soccer matches. At some point, one animal has 4 correct hits. Last year I think it was an octopus in an aquarium.

We call it probability. And not foresight of the animal. However, if you put a prof title on the octopussy, it's prediction.

GET THE FUCK OUT NORMIE
REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

Mexico :(((((

bye :(

Considering how many people will lose their fucking minds if Trump wins? It makes me damn happy.

The Washington Post... no agenda there...

So fucking guilible. I could claim to be god and all of you idiots would believe me without questions.

"WOW NEWFAGS GET OUT"
oh wait it's not 2012 anymore, sup dude

BRILLIANT!

lol you won't get nuked. we need your country to keep sending us weed and corona cerveza.

you mexifags better start digging more tunnels though. im just saying...

the only question here is why the fuck are you still here.

Trump won't nuke Mexico. You'll be nice and cozy and safe behind your wall.

Read the second part of my post you dumb cunt.

There are dozens of similar models out there and hundreds, if not thousands, of "professors" each with their opinions. Finding a completely different model that was correct every time since 1992 is a 30 s google search.

Absolutely none of them have any predictive power. It's just luck. Your post is what happens if someone's education terminates with Sesame Street.

And you probably skipped a couple of episodes there too.

What does that have to do with anything? This dude gets one guess while they get 100s if not thousands.

0.2% of estates which probably make a huge portion of the overall content of all estates. Not to mention it's not like 65% on those states and nothing else, the taxes reduce but are still applicable down to $250K.

The thing is that Cred Forums is not a secret club anymore. Hasn't been for a long time, so you announcing you're not from Cred Forums as a prank somehow makes everyone gullible? We get huge amounts of traffic from reddit and tumblr, why you gotta be so retarded? Also, acting like a retard isn't really trolling. That anime shitposter is giving you a (you) cause he's feeding you cummies.

>oh wait it's not 2012 anymore, sup dude

>neo-/b

Becausw ive been here longer than you and will more than likely outlast you as well.

oh never mind taco jockey, can't wait to see that lawless wasteland go up in flames

Uh, not so bad. I'm anarcho-capitalist so really I don't think anybody should win on account of them all being statists and voting just furthers the system that my ideology is against. But as long as it's not Shillary I'm not too troubled by the outcome. I'll settle for Trump or the Johnson.

Nice typo. You either got fat fingers or you're super butthurt. Which one bucko?

I already knew it, and boy is my body ready.

ur a dumb ass faggot dude trump data been based on alot of true things for example hes leader in 100% of real poles not the fake ones the libtards try to brainwash u with. Also trump actually does work with his supporters on like hilary who supports the invasion of america

businessinsider.com/r-france-waves-discreet-goodbye-to-75-percent-super-tax-2014-12

Lurk Omar faggot

>:(((((
underaged b&, but still my co national.

CAN U BELEIVE THIS IS WHERE OUR TAX DOLLARS HAVE BEEN GOING

My example was not clear enough. You have a whole US with hundreds of profs. One of them hits the prediction right while 99 are wrong. No one is talking about the 99 anymore but think that this single one is enlightened with prediction. Dont tell me the US doesnt have more prof going into this prediction game.

Who knew Cred Forums had so many hill shill CTR faggots

I miss my first days at Cred Forums... those good 'ol days.

dude shut ur fucking stupid consipiracy ass up no one fucking cares about ur tin foil hat bullshit fuckery. go to college and learn how shit actually works instead of making up shit you read on memes

You OP? if so then op is a faggot

>leader in real poles

But I thought that Trump is against immigration!

Ok if youre going to be retarded Ill treat you that way. The reason your example doesnt work is because the odds of ONE monkey(professor) being correct 7 straight times when only having one guess is much lower than many different monkeys getting it correct after many different guess. If youre still not grasping it then think of it this way, if many different monkeys are guessing but one is correct everytime when given only one guess, is that not impressive.

...

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Except the guy predicting hasnt changed, whilst in your example many different creaturws get it correct while its only been One dude.

>mobile

"im an anarcho capatalist"= i live in my moms basement and play computer games

Likely story you raging fatty. You probs are using mobile too. :^)

>The Finance Ministry estimates the proceeds from the tax amounted to 260 million euros in its first year and 160 million in the second. That's broadly in line with expectations, but tiny compared with a budget deficit which had reached 84.7 billion euros by the end of October.

>anarcho-capitalist
you do realize how shitty of a goddamn political system this is? socialism would fair better in my opinion

I give up. People like this are going to vote Trump and there's no stopping them. The idiocy is bulletproof.

Once again, for the sake of humanity. And the last time. Let's say you have 500 monkeys. Each monkey will pick a sequence of 7 elections at random. What is the expected number of monkeys that will get it right?

Ok? Are you trying to switch the joke onto me? If thats the case be less obvious, Im not going to get butthurt over you being idiotic. This just prooves youre probably new.

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>each monkey

Each is the key word. Its one guy. Open your eyes you retarded fuck. Many monkeys getting an infinite amount of guess is not better than one guy getting one guess. YOU STUPID FUCK.

like those shillary supporters, just lets see whatsup next monday & only after this gonna talk

Euphoric

hillary is already rigged to win, to think that trump stands a chance is just silly

Im gonna go slow this time... Since you like the monkeys idea Ill go with that. Lets say for 7 straight years 5000 monkeys put there vote in. But lets say only one gets it right 7 straight times while the other are off and on. In which case, would this not be impressive??? I can not pyshically explain this any further. If youre not grasping it then you are just straight up dumb.

Alot of people in the states are like "if trunl wins im moving to canada" dude if trump wins ill trade you houses and you can live in our socialist hell hole.

WELL OF COURSE IT'S A FUCKING ONE GUY A FUCKING NEWSPAPER WILL NOT RUN AN ARTICLE WITH A HEADING "A RANDOM UNKNOWN PROF GOT THE PREDICTION WRONG."

YOU FUCKING RETARDED ROTTEN CUNT WITH THE BRAIN OF A FUCKING WOODEN CHAIR

FUCK YOU, FUCK YOUR FUCKING FAMILY FUCK ALL THE CHILDREN THAT YOU MIGHT POSSIBLY HAVE IN THE FUTURE, GET FUCKING CANCER AND DIE YOU LOWEST POSSIBLE FORM OF LIFE IN THE FUCKING UNIVERSE

What does this have to do with voting for trump? If someone gets something right 7 straight times with 50/50 odds its impressive. Thats all there is to it, Im not going any further with you.

Trump is winning NM, NV, CO, OH, FL, PA, and OR is barely being won by Hillary.

Answer the fucking question in the fucking post you dumb cunt. It's a well-defined statistics problem.

Ahahaha I love it when retards get mad. But honestly, I hope you get past this someday and learn to think in a way that gets you past this wall that prevents you from seeing the truth. Maybe someone will explain it to you in a way that you can understand but I cant, good day sir.

All I'm trying to say that his thingy doesn't have predictive power. If a gambler guesses a coin flip correctly a bunch of times in a row it doesn't make his next guess any more trustworthy.

And the reason they wrote it in the first place? Because its impressive even if its luck, theres a less than 1 percent chance that ONE GUY WITH ONE GUESS gets it right for 7 straight elections.

I don't know if anarchy can really be correctly applied to socialism in a way that can even happen when it comes to a political system (not just being a group of people living in a yurt in the woods for a few years). All it takes is for someone to say "I don't agree" when tasked to do something. Then sooner or later it devolves to anarcho-captialism.

literal makes no sense. each of the monkeys is one man so only one vote can be cast and if you but 500 an even number with 7. then your not gonna fucking get equal outcomes. WTF

When do this become a thing about his predictive power? Of course its luck, yet its impressive none the less.

You should have given up when the only choices became Trump and Clinton. Oh and the fact that Sanders was even considered.

Retard...

Yeah, it's actually pretty hard. You can't get lucky. Me winning the lottery jackpot is like predicting 24 elections.

A few flaws, theres not an infinite amount of professors and they dont have an infinite amount of guesses like the monkeys. The odds of one specific monkey to get the correct result for seven straight years, is like 0.0000000000000000000000000000001 and thats with an infinite amount of guesses.

Trump supporters are less likely to answer surveys, and momentum is huge.

Honestly, I dont give a shit.
It doesnt matter who you vote for because whoever the government wants to "win" the election will win.
It doesnt matter who "wins" anyway because they will have nothing to do with the outcome, the government themselves will just like they always have.
The president is just the scapegoat, so we remain faith in our system and hope for a better president next time.
By the government, I mean the real people in charge of all this shit. Not some posterchild.

it makes me feel like the washington post really needed a headline. the article itself doesn't say that at all. too bad, i was actually hoping for an honest lichtman prediction of victory.

Whoa there friend, whats got you so rustled?

He's going to win.

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Makes me feel great again.

ITT: fucksticks debate over what was said in an article they haven't read.

Taking his prediction cause he's been good at guessing a 50/50 chance only 30 times, shows just how desperate u r lol

Listen, I know your exact though process however thats not a good wya to think about this. One hes given a single guess. Two hes done it for 7 years. And three there a reason we arent focusing on the incorrect answers.. Because this is more impressive.

youtube.com/watch?v=w-McIdVuY88

This is everything you need to know about Donald Trump

I don't trust anyone. This election is a giant roller coaster and we won't know what will happen until it's gover. While this ride is still going I'm gonna make some tasty snacks and sit myself down and watch the debates, I'm gonna have a giggle at any more leaked shit, I'm going to continue to laugh at the obvious shilling by the mainstream news/media, laugh at horrible Hillary ads, and wait for the day we get the results.

You have a 1-128 chance of doing this, if youre will to risk your life on these odds than message me your address. Ill you call a coin toss 7 times, if you get all of them right I wont shoot you. If you get a single one wrong Ill kill you. Is that something youre willing to risk?

This, fucking hate cuckanada

...

Of course hes not willing to do it because those arent good odds.

Fellow an-cap here.

Johnson doesn't have Trump's balls.

I call myself an-cap, but really, that's just my guiding light, my overall reaction to my general view of what the world is like.

I have no idea if "no government" is correct; and I have a feeling it is not correct.

Violence is natural to humans. And a useful question is: "is violence being relegated to its most valued uses?"

Government is technology. Technology and communication correspond.

>The system uses thirteen historical factors to predict whether or not the popular vote in the election for President of the United States will be won by the candidate of the party holding the presidency (regardless of whether the President is the candidate). The keys were selected based on their correlations with the presidential election results from 1860 through 1980, using statistical methods adapted from the work of geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok for predicting earthquakes. The system then correctly predicted the popular vote winner in each of the elections of 1984 through 2012, including 2000

>Electing a president for keks

>Trump is such a fuckin evul racist, omg if he gets elected I swear i'm moving to a country with a higher density of whites

youtu.be/TW5gQo43ay4

Ehhh...

>implying that a Trump victory will somehow make you less of a cuck

>>Enjoy your shit sandwich America, you'll be eating it for a while

Breh, we both know that's not true. You're fat and were a little visibly butthurt. Anyway enjoy the (you)s. Have a nice night bud.

If you faggots actually read what the prof said:

>has a well thought out methodology with many factors taken in to account, it isn't just a guess.

>acknowledges Trump is a different kind of candidate which may nullify the above criteria.

>tards saying his prediction record isn't impressive have no clue about stats.

"One of my keys would be that the party in power gets a "false" if a third-party candidate is anticipated to get 5 percent of the vote or more. In his highest polling, Gary Johnson is at about 12 to 14 percent. My rule is that you cut it in half. That would mean that he gets six to seven, and that would be the sixth and final key against the Democrats. So very, very narrowly, the keys point to a Trump victory... But I would say, more to the point, they point to a generic Republican victory, because I believe that given the unprecedented nature of the Trump candidacy and Trump himself, he could defy all odds and lose even though the verdict of history is in his favor. So this would also suggest, you know, the possibility this election could go either way... As people realize the choice is not Gary Johnson, the only choice is between Trump and Clinton, those Gary Johnson supporters may move away from Johnson and toward Clinton."

tl;dr - read the fucking article before using it to back your argument up, anons. the WP is just looking for clicks.

Eh, i'm still not sure if I really support a candidate.

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>but if you beat those odds it would be impressive

This guy has to be from Bulgaria

Meh it will be good guess

>7*4=30
I feel pretty confident this entire thread is predicated on bullshit.

>Some random faggot who said the opposite thing a month ago
>dailybruin.com/2016/08/15/experts-predict-clinton-win-during-hammer-museum-lecture-2/
>Lichtman added his model currently predicts Clinton will win about 52 percent of the vote because eight of the test statements are true.
OPs a fgt

Trump is better for us. He has said he is a constitutionalist. He has balls of steel.

He wants to cut taxes and deregulate, as an educated and successful entrepreneur should understand is necessary to MAGA.

Those two things will bring us closer to legalizing weed (and all drugs) than anything any president has done before him, or than any other candidate's abilities could have given us.

Ending the drug war, combined with cutting welfare and deregulating industries that have been monopolized by regulations, will do more for minorities and the "disenfranchised" than anything before or ever hear of.

>tl;dr - read the fucking article before using it to back your argument up, anons. the WP is just looking for clicks.
>tl;dr - read the fucking article the WP is just looking for clicks.
I'm onto postlberg

tell me again how cutting taxes leads to legalizing drugs?

>believing anything trump says

found the retard

Less pointless theft, more ethical society.

Less inefficient economy, more entrepreneurship.

More incentive for people to innovate.

More ways to circumvent and make laws and agencies irrelevant.

Examples: Uber, AirBnB, Bitcoin.

Taxes and regulations are pretty much a different flavor of the same thing.

I actually believe very little of what he says.

He is running a campaign. All presidents have to con their way into the oval office, pretty much.

Drumpf

TRUMP
TRUMP
TRUMP
TRUMP

DRUMPF
DRUMPF
DRUMPF
DRUMPF

...

4 years of terrorist don. Yay.

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SHREK to the KEK.

as a mexican i feel good, when mr trump start some crazy shit we can create a new mexican isis

KEK

...

all the more reason to throw your ass out

kill yourself. B8.

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im not in america, ive a nice life here in mexico, but i know that papa trump is gonna do alot of crazy shit

threatens to abolish the FDA and EPA day one. Wants to target civilians and kill families.

>kys m8

Bullshit nobody asked me or my good old boy fellows who we votenfor

Drumpf Drumpf Drumpf Drumpf Drumpf Drumpf Drumpf Drumpf Drumpf Drumpf Drumpf Drumpf Drumpf Drumpf Drumpf Drumpf Drumpf Drumpf Drumpf Drumpf Drumpf Drumpf Drumpf Drumpf Drumpf Drumpf Drumpf Drumpf Drumpf Drumpf Drumpf Drumpf Drumpf Drumpf Drumpf Drumpf

Your country is a lawless wasteland with a cucked corrupt government.

checked n kekd
Ferrari Guy 2016

That's right bitch Mr. Trump to you. Can't wait until you get bombed! Hey it's you.

I think he's right. I also don't think it will be a super narrow victory. At least one assumed 'guaranteed' blue state will vote red maga hat.

Just watch. You watch and see tbhfam to be honest.

A lot better than I would be if that headline had Hillary instead, but that's not saying much.

...

>Drumpf
thats right my country is corrupt as shit, at the moment Trump snow take the throne, my president is gonna bend over and take it in the ass. we gonna have to defend ours selfs from all the freedom

youtube.com/watch?v=Vh1RVsMgeVc

Wants to target civilians and kill families.
Keep snapping that bong it's doing wonders.

b8.

bruh, your batteries

quote from Trump "... We have to take out there families..." (in reference to catching terrorists) Call it what you will that's calling for targeting civilians.

I just want Hillary to win so I can watch Cred Forums melt down completely.

You are taking this quote out of context. Trump clearly meant "take out their families" as in take them out for a nice meal at a restaurant and try to convince them to stop radicalising people.

The WAR on terrorism. They want our families dead I remember when there was no war. Now it's almost a fucking crusade status.

>Butthurt detected

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Oh no someone was right 6 times

this is new meme. for everything

Typical Trump supporter in this video at 8:56

youtube.com/watch?v=tiqLxAdyazo

See 8:56 this is the kind of person that willl be voting Trump

fucking KEK

Red chill out

>being surprised that Cred Forums is full off edgy children who care more about memes than their country's wellbeing

Get the fuck out of here newfag!

since i'm voting Hillary, i don't see how he could be right.

If you do not reply to this post, you are a liberal cuck.

Easy, you're voting for the loser. They can't both win, and a whole lot of people end up voting for the loser each election. According to this professor with the perfect track record, you will be one of those people this time around.

319 millions americans, there are literally thousands of people like this lucky professor guesser

>ITT people who do no understand probability
>ignoring the thousands of 'expert predictors' who at some point have gotten it wrong and therefore had their opinion discounted
>1/128 odds are incredible

Voting just because she has different body parts. Women and their double standards.

That doesn't necessarily work, since there could be knowledge outside of the realm of human observation.

Successful Negro Trump?

he's gonna be a shit president
but he's the lesser evil compared to hillary
also, we can have some hilarious moments from him, and beautiful reactions from the lefties

The problems with these polls are that they aren't a census. A couple thousand people who view whatever website from whatever state cast their vote and that becomes the statistic. Millions of people are unaccounted for.

Hillary's entitled little liberal millenials spend their lives glued to their computers, phones, social media, etc. and participate in these polls the most, hence the skewed and seemingly overwhelming results in her favor despite the very poor turnout at her actual events.

It's not one guy. Hundreds of people make predictions. Odds are someone will guess right. Moron.

Not really. It's just luck.

Hillary was secretary of state when isis came into being. I really think you're voting for her just because shes a chick. Just so bad how many people were enslaved murdered and raped from just a couple of peoples decisions. Have fun voting for the very thing you hate.

>man who has guessed 5 to 6 things right in a row
>when its a 50 50 chance
clearly he's not a maths professor

It's not impressive. There are people who win large money prizes on poker machines/lotto ect numerous times in there life are you impressed by there skill or just think they are lucky? And the odds of doing that are far greater.

Kind of predictable, Hilary Clinton has had the worst campaign ever, she has zero idea what she's doing

Saying that though you can't underestimate the power of the system, they could easily throw the results and make her win anyway

and even without rigging the election, they have the power of the entire mainstream media that they could easily use to convince the majority of people to vote for her if they played their cards right

Trump's definitely going to win. Between Trump and Hillary, the odds are just in favour of Trump after the wikileaks leak happened and how sick she is, Trump is more likely to win this one.

Honestly it makes me feel excited, to see what a Cred Forums president would be able to do in the office.

Fucking amazing.

Kek. I like you user.

But how many people are making the same kind of guesses? There are probably hundreds of tens of millions of people who guessed right every time.

But Trump supporters don't know math.

Hillary is the Schrodinger's Cat of politics.

Big woop i got a dragon full helm my first time killing mith drags on rs. Everyone can get lucky.
>1/5000 drop chance

>7 elections
>1/128 chance
Clearly you're not one either

This guy gets it

That's only 7 presidents

He predicted a 50 50 outcome only 7 times. Wow

>you'll be eating it for awhile

what do you think we've been eating for 16 years?

Fuckin' LoL

Don't you mean the more the memeir?! XDXDXDXD!!!!1!!!116!

Professor 50/50. Can he also guess how long into trumps presidency the assassination will occur? I'm saying 3months and 14 days. No reason.

so what? we knew he would anywayz. big fuckin whoop