>>89414825

>the hill

>lives in PA
>lives in Philly
>never been polled
>voting Trump
>most friends voting Trump
>???

I agree, user. After seeing that pic of her on the plane last night.....she doesn't have long....

No lol

Why would you even post this? Your anecdote added literally nothing.

>thehill
>unbiased

asshurt CTR shill detected

The poll had 37% Dems 27% Republicans, and 11%Independents.. Independents are 40% in the general election.

>because her campaign is collapsing and Trump's is thriving.
I don't know, Pence just said today that his VP role model is fucking Dick Cheney. I'm sure that'll bring the moderates over in droves.

If it even rains in Philly or Pittsburgh, Trump is a shoe-in.
Here from Allentown to Scranton, last time it was like 60% Romney signs, 35% Obama. This time you can't leave the sidewalk without tripping on a Trump sign and I just saw my second Hillary sign last week. (still a handful of fading Bernie signs around the local campuses but otherwise no biggie).

The only people who'd vote hillary are inner-city folk in Philly and Pittsburgh. Most others would vote Trump. I live very near Pittsburgh and I've seen trump signs and supporters everywhere.

If the inner city people even decide to vote that is

If signs meant everything, Bernie would have won.

Yeah... but he is still losing In PA. But by how much really?

He could still turn it around. However he doesn't really need PA, he only has to flip one big swing state or a couple small ones at this point and he has about 6 of them on the edge. If he does well on the debates he could flip most them.

I'm not familiar with PA, But Trump is up in Luzerne,Bucks, and Northampton counties. Is that good?

hey OP

mobile.nytimes.com/2016/09/17/upshot/why-the-whole-trump-clinton-election-could-probably-just-be-held-in-pennsylvania.html

>People tend to have a misperception that with around a 30 percent chance to win, Trump is a big long shot. But it wouldn’t be shocking if Trump won based on those probabilities. In fact, you would expect that the underdog would win in three of 10 such elections. And there’s no preordained decree that this can’t be the year for one of those upsets.

for frame of reference Brexit had a 25% forecasted probability

cut your shit

Nevada is a dead heat right now, since we're ahead in Ohio and Florida and Iowa we only need one other state after we take Nevada. Can literally be any state no matter how small.

pennsylvania and iowa will have to be destroyed in the purges after trump's election

>Trump pulling 19% with blacks
>dem primary turnout down
>republican primary turnout breaking records

There are actually signs suggesting a possibly hidden monster vote in PA.
Plus, apparently Hillary has almost no campaign presence in PA.

>If he does well on the debates
lol

Wait a minute, are you saying in that scenario in your pic that the Dems win?

Yes, typically northampton and such are under Philthy's sphere of infulence

it's always the urban leeches

no that's just reference for counties

>morning call
>muhlenberg college
>405

Do you realize this poll is from a 2nd tier college and local paper?

pls no, we are just humble blue collar rust belt.

It's all Philly's fault.

As someone who lives just outside Philadelphia, its very possible he takes PA.

The major cities are liberal shitholes that typically dominate the state, but they're also liberal shitholes full of people who don't vote. Anywhere outside of the ghetto is solid red.

Your decrepit lizard woman isn't going to do well. That's for sure.

>405 people sample size
what the absolute fuck this is far too small to base ANYTHING off of

BOOM

>never been polled
and?

Do you need to take a statistics class?

Don't forget about Utah. They will answer for their worship of False Idols Mitt Romney and Glenn Beck.

From what I understand, PA has demographics that benefit Trump, but because there are so many white working class Dems, it makes it hard for the gop candidate to win. Is that right? If most of the white working class dems voted Trump, would it override Philly vote?

MontCo here

What an argument, Mark.

Clinton doesn't have a fucking 9 point lead in any fucking state ever jesus fucknig christ

>liberal shitholes
As opposed to conservative shitholes?

About 1.2 million population amongst the three. A lot of "disenfranchised" voters who haven't voted in recent elections, many never, because "They're all crooks, gimme another beer" but this time can't wait to vote Trump.

Conservative communities are by and large comfy zones.

But this is so unreal. Especially New Mexico. The demographics alone can't explain how Hillary has almost 80% there.

???
she's 20 points up in California and 17 points up in NY

>One man's estimates of each candidate's "chances of winning"
You missed checking what you were actually reading.

you live in philly?
find out where they're keeping the buses to shuttle the nogs to voting booths
slash tires and insert tampons/sugar into their gas tanks the night before Election Day please

also encourage all trump voters to go vote at the booths normally used by Dems so they'll get tired of waiting and leave

just don't get caught talking about that stuff

Recent polls have him close or up in those states. He literally just needs New Hampshire or Colorado as things stand now, he already has Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, and Nevada.

Yeah I live in pa and I drive for work a lot (electrician) and I've seen hundreds upon hundreds of trump signs and only 1 Hillary sign. Fuck, I've seen more Bernie signs than Hillary signs. The only way Hillary wins PA is if the black panthers try their voter intimidation shit in Philly and Pittsburgh like they did in '08 and '12

PA faggot here.

I can't deal with these polls. I can't recall seeing a single lawn sign or bumper sticker supporting the cunt.

But somehow she's ahead in the polls.

No.

More.

Lies.

Also a 5.5% margin of error.
What a shitty poll.

I have yet to see a Clinton sign anywhere in PA

This is so true. More than anyone outside of our little small town PA paradises know. Don't forget the rampant drug problem in Pa which Leads to the ultimate red pill.

god after Clinton wins it's just going to be a fucking storm of "BUT ALL THE SIGNS!!" "THE RALLIES!!!!" and it's going to be fucking insufferable

Sign don't equal votes, rallies don't equal votes.

PA is 80% white, yet the Dem always wins by 200k votes. Are there that many white Dems in PA? How does Trump get more of these white people to vote for him?

No matter what you say no one will ever take you seriously. Do you forget your place you stupid fucking leafnigger?

>How does Trump get more of these white people to vote for him?
stop acting like a crazy person and be able to converse off the cuff beyond a 4th grade level would probably help

they don't need buses you dumb ass, the precincts in philly are so small its always less than a few blocks away.

>hillary winning PA

Here's the issue with these fucking polls.

(((They))) call up some "potential voters"

>Hello! Who will you be voting for!
>BIX NOOD MAN GIB ME DAT HIL DAWGGG
>Okay! Will you go out to vote
>Mans gum got da shieeeeeeetttt

and then they mark one for the democrats

Why would the black inner city vote go for Shillary? There's literally zero reason for them to be motivated this election and a lot of republicans are energized from 8 years of Bamalama and Trump being based.

Screen cap this. Trump will win PA and all you other shit-tier states will have to bow before us for saving the entire country. You are fucking welcome.

if you don't see a sign, assume they are voting for hill dog

>STILL A FUCKING LEAF

He asked how Trump gets more of these white people to vote for him.

Trump was the politician in question.

He can't just turn off the crazy, he's not Gingrich.

>Dems have decided that Pennsylvania is their best bet to rig the election
>Go all out rigging the polls for plausible deniability
So predictable

Okay, Bernie.

80% ODDS of winning, not 80% SHARE of the vote

>It's a lefty slant tactic to mix and match the variables

>Implying they vote only once.

I know a lot of people that are voting for trump and don't have signs in their yard because of liberal media shame. That is a real phenomenon and if you don't think so you don't go out and socialize with the normal world.

twitter.com/StigAbell/status/777338389934796801/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

nytimes.com/video/nyregion/100000004654398/trump-comments-on-chelsea-explosion.html

he all the best words and a good brain, I promise, tremendous

...

Dont worry the Haitian commercials combined with the "threaten Bernies wife to get him to endorse" email in the last two weeks will carry PA.

Is PA one of those states that use electronic voting machines with no written ballots? The vote can be stolen (just like it was stolen from Bernie Sanders using rigged machines).

Trump better have exit-polling monitoring at vulnerable locations.

>Not clicking that shit newfriend.

With Clinton in freefall, I get her fans need something, ANYTHING to cling to.

I got called for this poll, when I said trump they kept asking questions to get me to contradict myself

there, such a wordsmith

Yes it is I've worked the elections for the last few years and they'll all just these machines we roll into the precincts set up, tear down, lock them, and then take them back to the court houses to be counted. They do print out a ticked at the end of the day that has the vote count on it and one of the people working are required by law to keep those voting tallies for 10 years before they can dispose of them.

>Is PA one of those states that use electronic voting machines with no written ballots?
Yes.

>
Trump better have exit-polling monitoring at vulnerable locations.
He doesn't seem to have much of a "ground game" which is worrying. Generally, Republicans will crawl through broken glass to vote, but now we need to monitor for Democrat shenanigans as well.

>don't care still a leaf
>What don't you understand by this?
I'm not playing into you're fucking CTR SHITPOSTING faggot.

dude, its muhlenberg that was doing the polling

thats where people who got kicked out of Moravian (after getting kicked out of lehigh) go

One step above community college, just barely

Big Cities are a mistake

>Morning Consult

A pollster so bad that Nate Silver doesn't even include their polls in his rankings.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

According to 538, he just needs to win one more state. Just one!

Nevada is the closest bet. Go look at their electoral map and see for yourself.

So on to another topic, why do you think Trump refuses to release his tax returns? Why is he being less transparent than Clinton?

My neighbor has a Clinton sign

he's not a bad guy, a bit of a cuck tho(obviously)

>a
>f
>u
>c
>k
>I
>n
>G
>l
>e
>a
>f
You neither live in my country nor Muh home state. Fuck off leaf you don't belong in this thread.

This election is going to come down to voter turnout is my guess; the polls leave out one thing, you don't have to leave your house to be pulled and right now if you look at rallies and voter excitement trump has an energized base who want to vote for him (much like Obama) And are therefore likely to show up on Election Day the only thing positive about Clinton I hear from her supporters is that she isn't trump dislike of both candidates breed voter apathy and low turnout

Right now in most states it's a dead heat with but he difference is pro trump people tend to be very pro trump where as pro Hillary people are simply anti trump

you sound awfully xenophobic

I had to look all over to find the actual voting report because I didn't believe it. I'm glad I did. The sampling in this poll was laughably bad.

Part 1

This.
The place where I'm gonna vote at is literally around the corner.

As for signs, I never seen any Hillary signs in Philly, I seen one Trump sign, it's on some guy's roof. I'm guessing so nobody steals it.

I still see a lot of Bernie bumper stickers though, lol.

>xenophobic

Fuck you north east fags. Pennsltucky or kys

>M-MUH LAW SIGNS MUH LAWN SIGNS IN MY HIGHLY CONSERVATIVE NEIGHBORHOOD PLEASE BELIEVE ME TRUMP IS GOING TO WIN IN A LANDSLIDE BECAUSE OF MUH LAWN SIGNS
This is what Trumpets actually believe

Massive over polling of college educated voters

Same, Pittsburgh here.
Trump signs everywhere, both in upper and lower class neighborhoods. Purely anecdotal, but I haven't seen A SINGLE Hillary sign. Even Bernie got more attention here.
Coincidentally I've seen a surge in confederate flags which I've always found silly to see in a state above the mason-dixon line.

Pennsylvania is like California: a former red state that the Dems carefully and deliberately stacked with left voters.

We need to start beating them at that game, people.

won't matter if you don't demand paper voting systems.

The computers will be rigged.

You should get medical help for that stutter, it'll wreck your social life user.

Niggers gotta nig

His speech pattern fucking astounds me. In all his years in business he has never once been confronted about this? Like 'Hey Donald can you speak more eloquently, like perhaps form proper sentences?'.

I mean for fuck sake he must have had to do presentations and speeches and pitches in front of audiences. When I was a kid at school doing presentations in front of a class I was able to convey information with more coherence and variety of vocabulary, even on the fly.

Trump should have been taking speaking lessons throughout this campaign. I just don't think his current abilities will cut it for the debate.

LAW SIGNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS

Have you looked into that site, user?

I never said that it meant anything, stop getting so assblasted my favelanigger.
I'm just wondering where all of the hilldawg voters are.

Are you sure the poll isn't weighting the results to account for demographics?

I've seen one sign and I've managed to repill every single one of my family and friends except for my Rachel fucking Maddow watching father.

The only goddamned place I can see the cunt winning is in the cities where idiot niggers are the majority.

it's a widely known fact that all polls oversample democrats by exactly one point more than the lead they show hillary to have.

>Lawn signs are an indicate of voting
Bernie should have won by a fucking landslide then.

youtube.com/watch?v=zMGZtkMS3sQ

>PRAISE KEK
ANTHEM FOR TRUMPS VICTORY
NOV 8TH

Remember when everyone thought Pennsylvania was going to be a big battleground state this election? That it was going to be THE state Trump flipped to win? Notice how nobody is talking about that anymore?

Fucking PA niggers. For the past year I've heard nothing but "P-PA is totally going red this year! Everywhere I look, there's Trump signs everywhere!". Yeah, no shit, because you don't live in Filthydelphia, Shitsburgh, etc., which are the cities that cuck you every year and will cuck you this year, too.

I think Trump will at least manage to eek out a win, but it'll be no thanks to Benisvania.

...

>His speech pattern fucking astounds me. In all his years in business he has never once been confronted about this?
Try to put your ego aside for a moment and consider if perhaps this cadence and speech is, in fact, the most optimal for public speaking for a general audience.

Oh wait, no. That's impossible. Clearly this multibillionaire is a big dummy. Meanwhile you're so smart and intellectual.

angle2

Agreed, but I think the media will continue to lust for a horse race and thus will say: Hillary may have been coherent and made some good points but came across as shrill. And: Trump may have been an incoherent loud mess but he came across as strong and confident.

You might even get Oregon is Trump kills Shillary in the debate.

It's the same video flipped you ludite, look at the guard who steps in to block the shot.

LMAO.

THE muhlenburg college?

What a joke

oy vey

>Clearly this multibillionaire is a big dummy
Yes that's obvious. It doesn't take a lot of ability to have your father loan you 6 million dollars and then later die and you leave you an empire.

And we have no idea what he's actually worth, because he refuses to release his tax returns for some reason.

Hey, they're solid red right now, give the weirdos a break. My Mormon boss fucking loves Trump.

>Hillary winning in the polls
>FUCKING POLLS DON'T MEAN ANYTHING THE JEWS RIG THEM REEE
>Trump winning in the polls
>HAHA HILLARY BTFO TRUMP 2016 CONFIRMED

Yeah you missed the fact that your source is a Jew crybaby propagandist who wants Trump to lose.

This is literally the map right now. Any single state (besides VT and the rest of Maine) would win it. Realistic states other than PA are CO, NM, NH, MI, or WI.

Recent polls show him ahead in CO and NM, could be outliers, but it shows how close it is. Other polls show him either slightly ahead or slightly behind in MI, WI and NH. All he needs to do is solidify his lead in NV, OH and FL and lay it on hard in the aforementioned five.

That being said, it's definitely not over yet. My biggest concern is that he'll autistically destroy his lead again by doing something retarded like attacking the spic judge and the golden-shower-loving sandnigger at the DNC

If he can refrain from doing that, his chances are bretty gud. A good debate performance and/or an October surprise could put him ahead in any of those incredibly close states, thus nudging him just over or just at 270. It'll be nail-bitingly close, the landslide meme needs to die.

>(((muhlenburg)))

Yeah, that's kind of how it goes for every contest. Get up to speed, CTR, no wonder you're losing

For those that care, here is the actual document, they didn't link it to the story about the poll because it was obviously conducted using an obnoxiously bad methodology

assets.documentcloud.org/documents/3110213/Election-poll-9-17-2016.pdf

Good. CTR will become complacent and newspapers will run Dewey beats Truman.

>what is oversampling
get gud, fgt

It's NOT A POLL. It's some liberal asshole's estimated "odds" that she will win.

>morning call

literally 500 landline calls to people who dont work

clinton up only 8 among these people

ROFL its over

Rangeban Vancouver and Toronto. STAT.

False equivalency. The polls are biased towards hillary. So you know that if trump is winning despite how skewed they are, you know he's absolutely killing it in reality.

Conversely, polls showing hillary ahead are falsely propping her up.

The bias only works in one direction here.

Hey, in that pdg:
"The data has been weighted to gender, age, region and party to reflect voter population parameters in Pennsylvania. The calculation of sampling error takes into account design effects due to the weighting identified above"

You idiot.

>It's the same video flipped you ludite

piss off back to rebbit you queer, bet you didnt even read the file name. not to mention the van is pointing in another direction

>what is representative polling
nevermind, I forgot that Trump supporters largely didn't go to college

>start off with 1 million
>turn it into ~10 billion
>start off in the republican primaries against 15 other people
>win in the primaries against cutthroat neocons and their donors who spend tens of millions in advertising against you
>become a presidential candidate, meet with foreign leaders, get security briefings, polling strong enough to have a much better chance at winning the presidency than Romney
>heh.... Trumps just a big dumb stupid head... Because he uses dumb words... not like me heheheh.... I'm so much smarter than literally the most famous person in the world
Narcissism is a hell of a drug

Trump should do the Nea Nea.

>9 pt lead in PA
>Only 4 pt lead in NJ
Hmmm...

>conservative veep likes former conservative veep

wow really fucking incriminating

uh huh y dont u go ask george soros for some proof

>turn it into ~10 billion
got some tax returns to prove that? No? I wonder why...

...

>Hillary may have been coherent and made some good points

Well then, name some you fucking leaf.

bullshit for faggots like you

>VP candidate openly admires man who's a decent shortlist candidate for top 5 people who fucked this country up hardest in the last 20 years
do you get it now?

The posted version is the version where it has been sampled. Thus, they are assuming 50% of the electorate will be college educated, and Dems will outnumber Republicans by over 8%. You idiot.

lol clintards can't even math

(((thehill)))

This.

They just turn out cancerous politics and spread across the country.

check back on Sept 26

The thing is I don't think he CAN speak any other way. He's not just talking like that for the crowd, that's his speaking ability.

do you have a bullet stuck in your brain or were you born retarded?

Yard signs show enthusiasm, fuckwit

After the first debate Clinton will be done and embarrassed after having explosive diarrhea in the bathroom and Donald will expose it and own her.

youtu.be/Z3wnsMSz_wE

Wanna know I how know you don't live there? You called it "le penntucky buzz feed get it cuz dey backwards xDDD".

Probably Colorado or New Hampshire.
Or both.

The results have been weighted, they properly represent the demographics of the state.

You mean the ones being audited by the guy about to be impeached?
I could explain, but Donald himself has many times and you still don't understand, so we can just dump you in the basket of "irredeemably stupid".

As a student at a philly college, he's fucked. They are getting every student to register and telling them about muh racism

thats just how new yorkers talk

>"threaten Bernies wife to get him to endorse"
Wat?? Tell me more please, Google isn't helpful and Cred Forums has been too busy discussing
>muh redpilled waifu
and similar bullshit to have a thread about it.

In fairness, NEPA is kinda shit.

The IRS themselves have stated Trump is free to release his tax returns. There is more than one copy. The only person saying he can't release them due to the IRS is Trump. He's obviously hiding something.

Michigan never goes red in the general election, its a union thing.

Fuck off faggot.

T. west ender

i'm from glorious pennsylvania and i am def voting for trump and attempting to trump everybody i know

Nice triples.

And..... EVERY. FUCKING. TIME.

Why do they even do this? It doesn't help Hillary. It just strengthens our resolve and ensures that Hilldawg's voters--who are already less enthusiastic--don't bother to vote.

So dumb.

It shows.

If Shillary dies and the DNC replaces her with a candidate people actually like (joe biden, bernie, Elizabeth warren, etc) its all ogre for trump.

I'm a PA resident and if Hillary wins the state I'll be so fucking mad. I mean, I wouldn't be surprised. But I'll be mad.

Just where are all of these people who like Hillary? I don't understand why she's the "default" candidate and it's like Trump has to actually convince people to vote for him. It feels like if Clinton wins it will be purely because of college students and inner-city folks.

the results are weighted you idiots

read a fucking book

>if I give them the right to vote they'll be inclined to vote for me
Funny how that works

I'm in Pittsburgh too, but I cannot imagine it not going to Hillary. Way too many liberals. Pittsburgh might be a "white" city for the most part, but it's still liberal as hell.

College kids and inner-city folks makes up a sizable portion of our population, unfortunately.

proof posted upthread, yes, read the whole thread or at least skim it nigga

(((Squirrel Hill)))

unions are going for trump. you haven't been following the election, have you?

>all of Western Pennsylvania going Red

what the fuck am I even looking at?

the poll is biased and misleading you fucking idiots.

hillary will lose PA in a landslide. prepare yourself leaf

2012 results.

Look at the counties.

trump could poll 100% in all fifty states and nate tin would still give hillary a 40% chance

>30% means 3 out of 10
Thanks professor

Other than Pittsburgh, yes. It gets pretty rural pretty quickly out there.

the PDF linked literally states that the results of the poll are weighted to account for over and under sampled demographics

Are you guys arguing that census data for PA is incorrect?

Otherwise you're arguing that a pollster with an A rating from 538 didn't bother applying a statistical tool learned in statistics 101.

which have absolutely nothing to do with actual voter turnout, especially this year.

PA is going Trump

>reddit talking points on Cred Forums

nobody here is stupid enough to be convinced by the same propaganda that worked on you, you're wasting your time

This, haven't even heard of them, and aforementioned problems with the spread.

Reuters having Trump up in NM is a much bigger bombshell.

>Yeah... but he is still losing In PA. But by how much really?
didn't you just read the post you replied to?
the weightings are entirely fucked up

>falling for the polls meme

what did he mean by this?

Have you never been the Pennsyltucky?

>The IRS themselves have stated Trump is free to release his tax returns.
No shit Sherlock. When you have the most corrupt IRS ever investigating you, you don't want to give them any possible ammo, not even the $1.35 in change in your couch cushions.

hillary's "campaign" is fucked. she might as well just pack it up in PA. it will be a massacre in favor of Trump

FUCKING SUBURBS I SWEAR TO GOD

Hey bucks native

and now we're back to "polls don't mean anything, maaaaaaan"

It's not weighed by straight demographics, it's weighed by demographics of likely voters based on 2012. Hillary will get fewer minority votes, but Trump will get way fewer college-educated suburbanites outside Philly and Pittsburgh

Alright, PA rollcall
/delco/ reporting in, get out and vote you cucks

Uh oh

I KNOW they are weighted to favor Hillary, that was my point, fucking leaf.

I doubt they'll have the New Black Panthers intimidating white voters in those counties this year. They'll likely still be blue, but not nearly as much.

Even Philly and Harrisburg niggers can't be that stupid.

Philly incoming

lol wtf is that website

>Pepe save us from the shills

youtube.com/watch?v=zMGZtkMS3sQ

York Co.

It's not just that. I know a lot of people who don't like Hillary but think she's safer than Trump. A lot of PA folk think Trump is a joke and/or too dangerous. They don't really like Hillary but see her as the lesser of two evils.

This way of thinking will be why he loses the state, mark my words.

Did O'Negro win because of Allegheny and Philadelphia I assume?

I live in PA, and Philly and Pittsburgh decide every election anyways, the rest of the state doesn't matter. And they almost always go Dem

I lived outside of PGH for 12 years.

I think PA will be solid red this year.

PGH will not vote for HRC.

again, colorado is red in the "current map"

>NV
>NC

kek

Blacks are only 11% of the population in PA.

Ignore the dumb pollacks who think nuggets are mighty political juggernauts. PA is blue because of suburban voters.

Fucking leaf, GTFO of this thread. You are not American, you don't get to vote. so STFU.

And if you don't fucking watch it, we will build a northern wall.

October is way too late to change the ballot

Not just squirrel hill. It's all the colleges- literally thousands of liberal students shilling for Hillary at every turn. It's exhausting

releasing tax returns wouldn't effect an IRS investigation in any way

they absolutely mean something. they mean, in this case, that trump will most likely win PA.

are you incapable of subtle, nuanced higher thinking? i never said they don't mean "ANYTHING," simply that these are skewed. Hillary will lose badly.

how'd that go for the romans?

Wasn't mother jones just complaining the other day that Hillary's millennial support is ridiculously low because Bernie painted her as a crony so much and then endorsed her like his mom made him to do it?

Thank you based kike

>based on 2012

Hillary will get destroyed in PA. Look at gop/dem primary turnout in '12 compared to this year. It won't even be close. Trump landslide incoming.

the polls fake

trump is going to win huge in PA

>simply that these are skewed
based on?

Oh my God. LOL

That's entirely reasonable if you assume that there is a 40% chance of Obama conspiring to rig the election.

YUGE

screencapping this for when Trump loses and we're assembling one of those images of utter denial, thanks for the material

also anyone have the one for Romney from 2012?

Not an argument, leaf.

I heard that too, but the people that I've talked to are all in the mindset of "I hate Hillary but I'll vote for her because fuck drumpf"

Purely anecdotal, obviously. Nothing would make me happier than if we could flip PA red... I just seriously doubt it's gonna happen

Nobody cares what you think,faggot.

displaced yinzer in SC for college reporting in.
1. why do so many philly fags come here for college
2. internship in pittsburgh consisted of 3 former dems all in for trump
3. lol fuck the bungals, trump landslides PA

>
lel
you a 610 bro too? right on the border of allentown/bethlehem here

also muhlenberg sucks but their radio station is ok

Penn state? MODS!

You sound like a faggot.

>screencapping this for when Trump loses and we're assembling one of those images of utter denial, thanks for the material
>also anyone have the one for Romney from 2012?

Cred Forums supported ron paul in 2012. the romney image is a deliberate attempt to rewrite history. and when trump wins, ron paul will be avenged

Let me introduce you to one of the counties that's going to fuck up Ohio.

Rutters > wawa/sheetz

Pittsburgh/Harrisburg/Philly

Also the college towns lean heavily blue.

How are the Falkland Islands doing these days?

if duplicates Hillary will faint during the debate

Trump called his son a manlet though ;_;

Was he wrong?

Good thing the Democrats had an 87% drop in primary votes while democrats had 80% growth in them.

Displaced yinzer in Philly for college. You would not believe how blue it is out here

It's not that Trump can't speak like an ordinary billionaire, he knows how to streamline everything in his message or in his rallies to send a clear statement that will make it past the cracks of endless media filters covering him. Every person in america, regardless of how DEPLORABLE they think trump is, can name at least two things he wants to do as president. For hillary, most people couldn't name one.

m.youtube.com/watch?v=Rksd80-FCAw

why wouldn't someone believe it?

it's going to be blue simply because it's so fucking close to NJ/NYC

oversampling dems and oversampling whatever demographic will give (((them))) their desired result (which is hillary ahead). it's all fudging numbers until they get what they want.

if they were trying to be fair, they'd come up with some sort of composite demographic of the last 4-5 presidential election cycles, and perhaps continue any obvious trends in them. instead, they just pick a method (general pop, 2012 turnout, etc) that benefits their desired result.

>live in pittsburgh
>see the same houses every day going to work
>one has trump
>two down has bernie sign
>right between them has a for sale sign
I should get a picture.

Kek, I heard that Bernie spoke at Drexel and all the shitlib unicucks from JewPenn and Temple went to go suck his cock.

>thinking this year is anything like 2012
>thinking romney was anything near trump
>thinking hillary is anything near obama

Pretty easy to tell you are an idiot.

Trump will win in a landslide. Won't even be close.

GOP primary saw 14.8% of eligible voters participate
Dem primary saw 14.4% of eligible voters participate

That pic related reminds me of the retards that fuck up swastikas in public bathrooms.
How do these people tie their shoes in the morning?

>the people that I've talked to are all in the mindset of "I hate Hillary but I'll vote for

keep talking to them. convince them if they really want to vote for a principled female candidate, they should vote jill stein. Or, if they want to vote with their conscience, they need to write in bernie. Tell them they win nothing if they vote for hillary. The only way they can change the system is by making sure hillary loses regardless of the winner.

Hillary and DNC colluded against him. You act like he even had a chance. Thus your argument is invalid.

What do the smaller divisions in the counties represent?

They aren't trying to be fair, they're trying to be statistically accurate.

And they are accurate to a degree, both parties determine how hundreds of millions of dollars will best be spent by using polls.

I wish he was more "well-spoken" but his message seems to be getting across.

Philly is so cucked the flyers haven't won a cup in over 40 years

Armstrong

While it is anecdotal, the fact remains is most polls only contact likely voters, and that is determined by voting records. They don't record your nominees vote, but they also know your party affiliation based upon registration.

They don't contact first time voters, or infrequent voters because they assume they still won't show up, and can't be motivated to be. I would presume they are very easy to motivate if you target them directly.

Remember that Voter Participation is down to near 40%, and if the demographics of the country are reflective of everyone who could vote, there is potential to motivate many millions of Americans to vote.

And this year the Republicans are viewed as the underdogs, because of the vast number of companies that are openly against Trump, in the media particularly, and the release of documents showing collaboration between them and the DNC, and people who wouldn't normally vote will catch wind of this, mostly due to the recent gaffes by Hillary attacking internet memes and his supporters, and suddenly you look hostile as fuck, and that repels the silent voter base and makes them easy to reach out to by a positive Trump who accepts every American's right to vote for the candidate they choose.

bullshit, Hillary got more votes. Period.

Bernie was a fair-weather democrat for less than a fucking year and they still let him run and use their resources and party apparatus. Bernie supporters got pissy because primary rules vary by stupidity from state to state and none of them bothered to learn the nuances of how they worked. You had Bernie delegates showing up to fucking conventions less than an hour before hand and being surprised they couldn't get parking. Just clueless.

I have family in Ronks and my mother's family grew up in Klingerstown. For as much as Pennsylvania gets painted as blue state, everywhere outside of Philly is wholesome as fuck. Please save us PA-san

Also, digging the pennsylvania dutch in that picture. schnicklefritzer as fuck

Because y'all get tired of the cold.

Which college? CofC here.

>both parties determine how hundreds of millions of dollars will best be spent by using polls.

not the public media polls. they use internal polling based on actually trying to win, not to produce some bullshit pony show for ratings or whatever. do you know anything about US politics?

>clinton-has-9-point-lead-over-trump-in-pennsylvania

"According to a College Poll"

Probably the most democrat college in Pennsylvania, right?

AND THE AWARD GOES TO...

There's no reason to think internal party polling uses magic methodology that public polling doesn't have access to.

Although the Romney campaigns internal polling may have been somewhat delusional and skewed because he didn't even bother preparing a concession speech.

LOLOLOLOLOL BRO U REALLY GOT HIM LMAO

don't leave a note when you inevitably kill yourself, nobody's going to read it anyway

got any financial literacy, leaf? didn't think so

:^)

>not nuking the financial Jew
you're literally just killing models, foreigners, and fags in that picture. some niggers too

you missed the russians and the kikes

thanks for reminding those in the thread that Trump is a fraud hiding his tax returns due to his net worth likely being nearly drowned by his debt load

but I thought democrats liked unlicensed illegals

or is that just mexicans?

>There's no reason to think internal party polling uses magic methodology that public polling doesn't have access to.

they absolutely do. that's the hundreds of millions of dollars ya dingus. it's just like in business. there's millions spent on corporate espionage.

>b-b-b-ut why wouldn't the public know every single hidden secret of every company???

the polls are just like everything else in the media - theater. it's like when generals/admirals get on tv press conferences and talk about strategies and maneuvers during wartime. they aren't telling the public anything meaningful. think about it.

its extremely muslim all around temple univ. A mosque every block. Poor blacks gave up on Christianity thinking islam will save them

>TheHill.com/blogs
>>/blogs

Wew lad.

No Bernie was colluded against. Period

thinking anyone in the fucking world cares about your little witch-hunt? hillary is a proven criminal, and the only thing keeping her out of prison right now is a corrupt, bought-and-paid-for media, fbi, doj and state dept.

There will be a massive ice storm on November 8th in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh causing low turnout in those cities. This will swing Pennsylvania red.

Shadilay.

I live in Palm Coast, Florida. I have seen dozens of Trump signs on my way to college, even one right outside the college. I have only seen one Hillary sign.

>hillary is a proven criminal
where's the indictment?

Did the 7th or 8th Republican Benghazi/email inquiry not uncover anything new? And the FBI is also being run by a Republican.

well I'm right outside of Pittsburgh
Drive downtown everyday
see TONS of Trump signs and bumper stickers
never see a Hillary sticker
Show how the "poll" was done and I'll believe you
until then fuck off shill

Fox Chapel
Although I'm currently in Traverse City, MI
Will be voting absentee so we can get Toomey back in

(continued)
>Probably the most democrat college in Pennsylvania, right?

Confirmed...

Muhlenberg College

>berg

Smack in the middle of one of the most democrat districts in the state.

And even in that Hive of SJW's and democrats, she ONLY has a 9 point lead.

LOL!

I live in one of these blue areas and saw a whopping 1 Clinton sign in the entire city. Dozens of Trump signs though.

Bernie lost, he got less votes, the democratic party is under no obligation to give special favors to Bernie over Clinton.

The worst thing the email leaks showed was the suggestion that they use his supposed atheism against him. Nothing was actually done about it.

I'm from Plum
a lot of pittsburgh faggots here huh

>indictment
did you read what i wrote? why would a corrupt, bought-and-paid-for doj/fbi indict someone who is paying them not to? who has enough blackmail to bury them all? do you understand the meaning of the word "Corrupt?"

>republican

so what? how does that prove anything? your small mind can't comprehend the fact that BOTH PARTIES are corrupt. both parties are working together to keep the power for themselves. jesus are you in high school or something?

At first I thought that I was mentally ill, but then i just realized that everyone else is stupid.

>they properly represent the demographics of the state

how are you that fucking retarded? no they don't, that's the whole point you everloving kike

this

i'm from north jersey, 145 iq, extremely high verbals and rc scores my entire life

new yorkers oversimplify shit, the MMM YEEEESS QUITE ELOQUENT YEEEESS faggotry is in my experience much more likely to be a put-on by a faggot afraid of what people think of him or her, i.e. not a true new yorker

people who curse a lot and who use demonstratives frequently (that, this, that thing, those, etc) are actually proven to have better vocabularies (if not be smarter, can't remember but i believe that too) than the meek cunts that don't

people who judge those people also tend to be lower iq and are projecting their own insecurities onto the other person

t. guy with a dad from newark who curses like a sailor with a >160 iq

t. 145 iq guy whose foreigner girlfriend with an okay but not phenomenal command of the english language had a ~118 iq and constantly berated me for cursing in casual conversation

i'm not an edgelord, it's literally just how i grew up

youtube.com/watch?v=zDWDQbdbd5c

She right now.

you're, also known as you are

your is possessive

>the hill

Trump is confirmed to be winning in PE. Don't be retarded.

I swear all the time in conversation
>IQ 147
>MENSA tested
Fucking people actually believe swear words matter
a 100 years ago "Humbug" was a vile word and Dickens was controversial for using it in "A Christmas Carol"

reutgers shows trump +3 in nevada

Why do you concern trolls pick the absolute worst possible poll you could when trump's behind, in terms of percentages, but the opposite is true with hillary?

trump's net worth is tied up in real estate which in his world is much more subjective and difficult to assess than grandma's house; it's entirely likely that he minimizes his "net worth" on his tax filings with favorable assessments to minimize his tax burden like any sane human would

in the real world, it's entirely likely that his properties would sell for significantly more than assessed based on the whims of the real estate market. it's called salesmanship

beyond that, see his FEC filing:
nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2015/07/22/f-e-c-releases-donald-trumps-financial-disclosure-statement/

>It showed that Mr. Trump, a Republican, earned at least $380 million, making him the highest-earning candidate in the 2016 presidential field. And it detailed assets worth at least $1.4 billion.

>But the form contained wide ranges for asset values and incomes that made it impossible to calculate a very wealthy candidate’s net worth or income with precision. The largest range, in fact, was infinite: those assets worth “over $50 million.” Mr. Trump listed that category more than 20 times. (Examples: Trump Tower Chicago, the Trump National Golf Club in Bedminster, N.J., and the Mar-A-Lago Club in Palm Beach, Fla.)

nobody gives a fuck about whatever small shit you have to say, shill

try harder kike

The entire city would be dead m8.

Third degree burns, collaspe buildings and radioactive fallout errywhere

>trump's net worth is tied up in real estate which in his world is much more subjective and difficult to assess
it would be much easier to assess if he released his tax returns, but he won't for some reason

Even Romney and Clinton released theirs, what's he hiding?

Bucks county here. We have stuff like pic related going on and Trump signs are everywhere, definitely going red this time around.

VT would still win it. A tie in electoral votes goes to the house and senate, which are both republican controlled. So, the number 270 is a guarantee that you win, but 269 is good enough this cycle to also do the trick.

looks like TPUMP

The point is that polling methods, analysis methods, etc. are all pretty well understood. There's no secret methodology out there. At most you could try to target specific areas or groups that weren't really covered by any of the published polls.

None of your fucking business.

this, fellow telosian

in my experience the testiest people about intelligence etc are the middle of the road ones

you have the roughly 115-130 or so iq faggots who all engage in all kinds of virtue et al signaling because they want to seem intelligent and are self conscious about how smart/dumb they are. they embrace intellectualism and poison it with their retardation because they use it as a means to elevate themselves by subjugating others. those are your hillary and bernie voters.

then you have the 90ish-115 mostly dumbos who mostly embrace idiocy and anti-intellectualism because they know it's being used by the more intelligent as a tool to oppress them (putting them in conflict with the sub-90 niggers and trash). those are your trump voters.

sub-90 niggers and trash were obama voters or just don't vote

130+ are mostly the "freethinkers" who i think mostly fail to think freely and often default to fairy johnson, abstain, or go 50/50. depending on likely political affiliation i'm pretty sure most could give a fuck about intelligence level and listen to what, not how

*IN MY OPINION and experience

hi, you wanna join my new sub?

lol colorado and NM are gonna go trump. he is also leading in Vermont now also

>it would be much easier to assess if he released his tax returns, but he won't for some reason
wew lad, guess you didn't understand anything i said didja m8?

>Even Romney and Clinton released theirs, what's he hiding?
why are all shills from canada? i'm thinking cia proxy

are you a big guy?

im not following through the mentions to the original but if you're the original guy i responded to you're a wannabe edgy faggot and the rebbit joke has never been funny

if you're not him, you're a wannabe edgy faggot and the rebbit joke has never been funny