CUT MY LIFE IN TWO PIECES

Cred Forums btfo!

b8 but I'll take

It's always been shit, the fact that even the shit has trump higher now is notable.

Winning in Florida isn't really the same as actually winning, you know?

It was sixteen years ago

>its almost a toss up
>fucking nate silver

how do you expect him to know about something that happened before his birth?

is this real?

It's "into pieces", you retard.

>IN TWO PIECES
Wrong again, OP.

its not trustworthy. I actually worry now that nate zirconia thinks Trump has a chance

SHILLS ARE MY LAST RESORT
>SUFFOCATION
NO BREEDING
>DON'T GIVE A FUCK I'M A NIGGER AND I'M SEETHING

When Leave briefly took the lead in polls for our EU referendum before the assassination of Jo Cox , Remain supporters started claiming:

>Undecided voters will go for the less extreme option
>the Remain campaign is better organised and has a better voter turnout campaign
>People are just saying they support Leave in polls, when they're actually in the voting booth they'll vote for the less risky option

Be prepared for Clinton supporters to start making up all these excuses.

if my numbers are check worthy, this poll is correct

>Oh, this site is trustworthy now because Trumps winning again? Okay.

All the sites are incredibly inaccurate they just don't know it. Or maybe they do and are feigning ignorance.

All the polls are based off sample polling of course, but their methodology is incorrect. When they take sample sizes from Republicans and Democrats they use sizes based off the voting blocks in the previous election.

This means they're based off the 2012 election where voter turnout was consistent, high for democrats, low for republicans. Nearly all 2016 polls use a party disparity highly favoring Democrats.

The thing is, if you look at the primary voter turnout the entire country has MASSIVELY changed. Not just a few extra republicans are voting, and a few less democrats. We're talking about millions upon millions of extra turnouts to vote for Trump. Meanwhile Democratic turnout was significantly down. Democrats aren't excited about the election and just aren't voting.

These polls, every poll, none of this is included. The mainstream idiots just don't realize how significantly far ahead Trump is. Some pollsters and analysts are aware of the Trump factor and are mostly keeping their mouths shut.

All these polls are biased favoring Democrats whether the organizations are aware or not. The fact that Trump is beating them now even with the handicap spells disaster for the left on election day.

It's going to be a slaughter.

Keep adjusting those polls, Nate.

Poor Nate Cuckoldium

When I look at polls I see snakes mating.

Hillary is winning by .9 as of now. It's getting close as fuck.

mark my words, FLORIDA WILL BE RED

fuck college towns. Tallahassee, Miami, Jacksonville, Orlando, etc. The tides are turning in favor of the more conservative counties this time.

nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html?_r=0

Tf, is nytimes owned by Jews?

> celebrating winning Florida but losing the election
(((You)))

Falklands = British

>Tf, is nytimes owned by Jews?
Even worse

>Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim has become the largest shareholder of New York Times Co (NYT.N)

reuters.com/article/us-new-york-times-warrants-carlos-slim-idUSKBN0KN2M820150114

>All the polls are based off sample polling of course, but their methodology is incorrect. When they take sample sizes from Republicans and Democrats they use sizes based off the voting blocks in the previous election.

Could you please explain this again in simpler terms?

How do they apply the voting base to the polling results? I thought that they just cold called people and asked them if they were registered to vote and if so, who would they vote for in the election was called today. Don't these numbers then get averaged out into the polling information without any other factors?

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>NOW
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>CAST

No homo right

made my look

>Unable to follow polling trends because I am a 2 dimensional thinker
(((You)))

Florida fucking up the country since 2000

Fix your chad punchers and butterfly ballots

we're factoring a bonus of 5% to trump, given the chronic oversampling

>hillary's odds are barely better than winning a coin toss
>her chances have been going down for over a month
>current trend suggests that before the election Trump will be favored to win
>Cred Forums BTFO

...a little homo.

There are more registered Democrats than Republicans in the US, anons. It's not a conspiracy.

>Clinton's lowest point is still much stronger than Trump's highest
Do you understand anything?

Not how it works.

Election results are typically more accurate if you poll result pools from previous election years. That's often why you'll see polls showing 1300 votes (750 D/550 R) or something of that nature.

This is based on how the state voted previously. So if Democrats had a higher turnout for Obama then Romney. Then more Democrats will be added to the results for polling in 2016.

Normally in a typical election year this is fine. But Republican turnout as we have seen is up by millions, some states nearly doubling turnout, meanwhile far fewer democrats voted this year.

Previous trends don't work and quickly fall apart with atypical elections. This is usually what people are talking about when they say the polls are rigged.

Dear amerifags, I know you know, but each four yeays when election time is coming we kind of forget it.

> Don't stare at the pools

Dont trust them, dont post them

It is just another form control. It is Them! who make the pools. Every pool is cucked. It is no good to watch them its pure jewposting.

>bragging about a coin flip

Don't stare at the pools.

Yeah, I know man. Gollum warned in LotR not to do it but Frodo did it anyway. Truly an ancient tale of folly.

But thats degenerate.

hacete cojer chori

Trump 2016

They're also asking the people they poll questions like "did you vote last election? " etc. When they have a likely voter poll they're throwing out people who give their opinions on who they support but who admit they've never voted before. Because odds are good they won't vote this time either. Voting consistently is a habit.

So when trump talks about motivating people to vote for the first time ever he's referencing a group that rarely gets attention by pollsters.

...a little degenerate.

But hot.

Interesting. I knew the "probability of winning" was calculated in a similar fashion but had no idea that the polling information was as well.

You'll find no argument here that it's not a tremendously flawed away of calculating probability. Even on a regular election year, I don't see why this method would be more accurate than just scaling up a sample size result.

...very hot.

>Cred Forums only believes things that agree with them

and there are more independents than both and they don't get polled enough

Glad were on the same page

Yeah, nice chat, friendo.

>polls show trump down
>DRUMPF BTFO HOW CAN HE RECOVER LE SONGPOSTING XD
>when polls show trump up
>M-MUH NATE ZINC, MUH BILL KRISTOL, A BLOO BLOO BLOO

Great chat m8 have a good night now.

if you call a bunch of libfags in downtown chicago, they're most likely to say Hillary.

KEK MY LIFE IN TWO PIECES
THIS IS MY WIFE'S BLACK SON
HUMILLIATION
NO BREEDING
DONT GIVE A FUCK IF I CATCH MY WIFE CHEATING