Electoral Facts

KEK WILLS IT

I live here as well and see the same things. Trump signs everywhere.

Shittydelphia is still too powerful.
She's up 8 points in the state while she's going down everywhere else.

>tfw democrats will never allow CA to split in half

Why would CA be split? Just because they shit all over the republicans in the EC? Thats called sour grapes user.

What the fuck is wrong with Virginia? I thought they were a swing state?

Has Hillary killed Paul Combetta yet?

Literally everyone i see in CA is voting for Trump too, but I'm not that naive. I know that deep in the city ghettos there's a horde of government dependents that will do whatever it takes to secure their welfare increases.

Because the population is too big and the winner-takes-all voting rules have created a system where millions of voters receive no federal representation. There was a war fought over lack of representation, you know?

Ignoring that, California has effectively functioned as at least two states, arguably more, for many, many years. There have been calls to split California into a Northern and Southern California going back over a century at this point.

They're a "swing state" in the same way that Texas is a "swing state"
They're a lost cause. The once capital of the Confederacy is cucked.

>What the fuck is wrong with Virginia?
DC suburbs. It's probably a lost cause at this point. The state used to be solidly red.

The polling in Virginia is very odd in the context of the last 2.federal elections. Both 08 and 12 Virginia was very close. I could see trump winning it as Clinton won't likely see as good of voter turnout as Obama did, but the polls have been declaring it Clinton +8 or something for so long that i honestly don't know.

Because such a large amount of electoral votes go one way even if the most populous state is 49/51 and it's entirely because of two cities that don't represent the rest of the state at all

>the majority of the people do you represent the majority of the people
It's called a democracy for a reason user. We're not counting trees where nobody lives as having as much value as a square block with 50x the people.

What happened to new Mexico?
In 2012 they went blue too.

I live in Philly and NO ONE IS VOTING FOR TRUMP here. NO ONE.

How did Romney almost get PA but Trump is 10 points down?
Obviously something fishy there

>We're not counting trees where nobody lives as having as much value as a square block with 50x the people
We do though. That's the point of the electoral college.

I hope you're right, user. If Trump wins Pennsylvania, he's won. Plain and simple.

Here's a chart of the must win states.

I guess we should get rid of small states electoral college like Wyoming then since they aren't part of the majority

If the rest of PA voters are anything like me, we are close enough to Atlantic City to see what horrible things he did there. He is a fucking scum bag that ripped off tons of small businesses and fucked up that town worse than it was already fucked up.

Mexicans

She could barely pull 200 person crowd in the heart of Philly itself

breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/09/19/photo-donald-trump-draws-massive-crowd-far-more-than-hillary-clinton-in-florida/

If Romney lost PA by only 5%, despite his terrible turn-out numbers, then Clinton's fucked.

Trump is bringing significantly larger voter base and turn out, as well as 20% black vote.

Clinton needs Obama numbers to even have a fighting chance.

But She's without 90% of the Black vote, without major support from the Bernouts, her overall Dem turn-out is almost 40% lower than Obama.

There's only one thing he can do now...
...as long as he was honest, that is...

Friendly reminder that this is literally Trumps current map based on internals

IIRC, PA has been inching closer and closer to going red, even with shittydelphia.

I believe during the 2012 election, between Ohio and Pennsylvania, Obama only won by around 300,000 votes. So we should only need about 150,000 dems to vote trump for him to win both states.

Everywhere I look, dems are going Trump. I've been hearing from all over the state, even philly, of dems voting Trump.

It could happen boys.

I'm just saying the ~30% of Cali that votes red would have more electoral votes than most ENTIRE states, yet they get no representation

Pick a side you humongous faggot.

Hillary
>let in millions of refugees from the Middle East
>open border with Mexico

Trump
>Wall
>extreme vetting

Pick a side or fucking kill yourself because your logic is fucking retarded

I know he doesn't need it based on that map, but I thought that WI is still light blue while NM is actually looking increasingly red.

>The Bad News

It will be a few weeks more before the election

>The Good News

The amounts of butthurt from the faggots of Cred Forums will exceed anything ever experienced in collective human history.

>The Problem

Once Hillary wins, some /prol/tards may claim to have been only supporting Trump ironically, since they are cowards, through and through.

>The Solution

Troll them anyway, their tears are still going to be delicious. Most wont be able to contain themselves.

(((((internals))))

>PA
>caring about Atlantic City
u wot m8; trump is actually polling pretty well in NJ too, so evidently they don't really care either.

>new mexico
>blue

Dat logic doe

Lel fuck off with your kike dart sources. I recognize that font anywhere.

I believe the poll, anecdotal, but I've only met one Hillary supporter in Rhode Island, even on college campuses. Most people I've spoken to are going third party or not voting.

>So we should only need about 150,000 dems to vote trump for him to win both states.

No, even simpler.

We need about 150,000 dems not to vote at all.

or

We need a minimum of 150,000 independents to vote Trump.

Both scenarios are already a given.

I can't wait. 9th of November best day of my life.

This is what I'm talking about.

Hence why more states should do what Maine and Nebraska do

Rhode Island's so tiny that I'd argue that anecdotal evidence holds more merit there. Still not much merit mind you, but more than in a state the size of Pennsylvania for sure.

Interestingly Wisconsin has been one of the most receptive states to trump as a person (would not expect this). They are like the anti-Pennsylvania which is stubbornly blue and is not receptive to Trump personally despite being very receptive to his message.

338 has been sent out as the upper limit, a trump landslide u would say, that map is attached. Interesting that even then NM is blue albeit slightly. Why is this? Trump is not putting any resources into it because it's irrelevant to like the 5 easiest paths to victory

The true redpill. The rest of you guys are delusional and lying to yourselves

>huur durrr muh crowds ralies

Fuck off with that shit. I bet you also go off by how many Trump signs you see and how many of your "dem" friends are voting Trump.

I'm voting Clinton but I sure as hell would never go to one of her shitty rallies.

Stop bumping this thread, FL and CO and NV and OH and NC are all in Trump's camp. OP is a fucking shill.

>We need about 150,000 dems not to vote at all beyonf what the polling already allows for.
>or
>We need a minimum of 150,000 independents to vote Trump beyond what the polling already allows for.

Good eye. Everyone puts NV as blue, dishonest media oversamples democrats in the polls. The 1 event Hillary had in Reno, there were barely 400 people. But they won't show that.

People can't even get in the doors at the Trump rallies in NV. Thousands of people. It's incredible, I'll tell you. And its deeply demonized to support Trump, but look at who shows up. Doesn't look good for Sick Hillary come November. Desperate!

>aboo aboo muh dishonest media reporting on polls
>b-b-b-but just look at rally crowds

My god.

Losing is not the same as having no representation, though.

I wont vote for either of those scum bags. Feelin the Johnson and dont care if I'm throwing my vote away...couldnt live with myself for voting for either of them

>VA
>guaranteed blue

Conrad Black thinks VA is a guarantee for trump. He said Tim Caine won't be able to hold VA and it's not even a swing state.

>i have no idea how the electoral works
you could of said that instead

Thanks for Correcting the Record.

You're going to be the first swinging from the rafters.

He's not exactly wrong though. Large parts of Cali go red every year. It's not like Texas, where it's a sea of red except for the big cities. These voters have pretty much no voice.

>Polling based on 2012 & 2008 turnout.

>hillary will get more le anti-Drumpf XDD votes than truly supportive votes

>dude open borders lmao

>He's not exactly wrong though. Large parts of Cali go red every year.
>They have no voice

Bravo Trumpfag.

I dont expect people to care about AC. BUt people should care that Trump was an absolute greedy piece of shit there and that he fucked over a lot of people to enrich himself. Same thing you folks rail on Hillary about, its even more obvious with Trump tho.

>what's a leppo

Fammmm...it's early impossible for a republican to win the popularly vote but lose the electoral college. It would quite literally take a very narrowly blue Texas vote which is like 12 years away

.... it happened to gore in 2000... it's entirely likely.

not an argument

She's not guaranteed anything you fuckwit

>four way polling shows Trump ahead in NM
>recent polls had NJ and RI very close
>if WI flips then there is a chance of MN flipping
>IL could flip on the basis of anti-Mexican and anti-black sentiment in the suburbs outside Chicago pushing the state more red
>people want to meme CT and Oregon and Washington into the Trump category
>New York could be a longshot if turnout in the Upstate is way up in Trump's favor while turnout in the City is down and Trump gets at least 30% there
>in Delaware there are only Trump signs

The uppermost possible limit of Trump's advance is 455

Your map isn't even the most realistically possible since it excludes New Mexico

If the election is too close and comes down to the wire, Hillarys going to win because cmon..it'll be fixed to push her over the edge. The only way Trump wins is if it's a landslide.

Sucks senpai

Anyone know when the debate is?

We hear this every 4 years.

It's not fucking happening. PA will never go red.

I couldnt give a shit about open borders dude. Not some storm fag. Its a total nonissue for me.

>dishonest media oversamples democrats in the polls.

It looks like you do not understand how the party affiliation question works in many polls. It is self-identified, and when a party is more popular, it shows up at a higher percentage than actual voter registration numbers, a party that is less popular shows up at lower numbers.

And, many voters will tell an unknown caller they belong to the party in power locally, to avoid the risk that the caller is testing their party loyalty for later perks or retaliation, especially in big cities where patronage is still important, but also in small one-party towns and counties in rural areas.

Didn't need to you made my argument within your own idiotic post.

Yeah who cares about criminals walking in and talking welfare and becoming permanent democrat voters.

>These voters have pretty much no voice.

They do, but they don't prevail. You are not entitled to prevail, the minority loses.

There is no electoral system that will both allow the winners to prevail and the losers to prevail.

It did but Gore had an issue where Bush at the time was likable. Only 24 states give the electoral an actual choice and the party that gets the popular vote selects the electoral so it is usually very unlikely that they are willing to fuck over their party with so much riding on the line such as supreme court picks.

Yes, all countries with borders are just storm weenies, of coarse, borders don't actually help anything, let's just be Sweden already.

>if WI flips then there is a chance of MN flipping
Never ever.

>inb4 taking CTR bait.

Hillary can only win with Obama level enthuisiam, and low republican turn-out.

With the DNC riots, she's fucked over the Bern-outs, and hasn't done shit to secure Obama level turn-out in any capacity.

Meanwhile, Trump is putting around at least 40% higher R turn-out than Romney.

Which is why Trump won PA with +15 over the polls suggested in the primaries

>NM blue
They went red faggot.

Starts on the 26th

What you don't understand is that Trump campaign is not trying to win those states. Illinois and Oregon and Washington are super close to going red but the campaign will not even try..

Why? Interesting question with an interesting answer. The campaign does not want to 'run up the score' because they are concerned it would create a lot of bad blood and Trump wants to come in as a unifier.

None of these polls account for turnout.

There's a gangs that strum supporters could turn out in HUGE numbers because they are excited about their candidate. Trump brought out more primary voters than the rest of the party combined, literally 10x the turnout from 2012.

All of these pols try to sample equally or they even over sample democrats and independents. They are ignoring the enormous mass of red voters who will turnout- and the blue voters who will stay home

Monday

>do a national poll
>party affiliation doesn't match national statistics
>this is totally an unbiased sample guys

>It would quite literally take a very narrowly blue Texas vote which is like 12 years away

If then. Party bases of support shift -- black voters used to be overwhelmingly Republican, for example. Because Hispanics vote more Democrat now does not mean they always will.

According to an article on Nate Silver's website (not written by Nate himself though) Trump can easily win the election while getting 1.5% less of the popular vote than Hillary

This is largely because states like NY and CA have huge turnout due to laws designed to make it easy for retards and poorly informed gibsmedats to vote, but a limited number of electoral votes.

If Trump wins the popular vote he will win the electoral vote because his voters are more strongly concentrated in swing states than Hillary's are.

brainwashed faggot.

if they already count every single vote why does it need to go through another process?

THEY ALREADY COUNT THE FUCKING VOTES SO WHY THE NEED FOR THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE?

made me think...

Ohio has the same problem with Cleveland and Cincinnasty.

Thanks friends.

>polls are oversampling Dems and Women
>polls are undersampling young voters and independents, both of which Trump is winning by nearly double digits
>still virtually tied and close in states like MI, WI, AND NM

Yeah okay but I'll believe you. Its not like you took a handful of states and said "Yeah idc about logic, imma just make them blue anyways." Totally didn't do that

I'm not saying anything about being entitled or not. The point is that California has more republican voters than entire rural states like Wyoming and yet they get no representation.

>tfw the future of the nation comes down to fucking potheads
If Trump is smart he would push for lolfreeweed.

Not a chance. that's where Tim Kaine is from

The secret is they hate Hillary that much.

Sanders won the Vermont primary like 92-8

Stein and Johnson might get more votes than Clinton, leaving Trump to pick it up with 40 or even 35%

PA is not going red.
Stop this meme.

>"b-but I've seen so many Trumo signs! I don't know anybody that likes Hillary! L-look at the size of his rallies vs hers!"
That's not a viable metric for success. Just because you've seen more Trump signs doesn't really mean Trump has an advantage.

The thing is, just because nobody likes Hillary, doesn't mean nobody will vote for her, because there's even more people that generally hate Trump. They'll vote just to keep him out.

Running up the score would be good for unifying.

Also according to CNN's poll 93% of Trump's likely votes DEFINITELY will turn out while only 80% of Hillary's likely voters will DEFINITELY turn out

There is going to be a large discrepancy between the polls and the actual vote in Trump's favor.

Those other counties are basically empty. a few scattered farms and small towns

Clinton only has like a +2 average there except for the fucking +8 she got from PPP somehow that is massively higher than all the others.

>>four way polling shows Trump ahead in NM

Beware the four-way polls. Third party and protest candidates generally over-poll significantly compared to what they actually draw on election day. They tend to be less motivated, given that they know their guy is not going to win, and they tend to be younger, a demographic that is not good at turning out.

Plus, as election day nears and people are face with a ballot that they actually have to cast, disgruntled Rs and Ds tend to "come home to Jesus" and vote their party.

This year MAY be somewhat different, given the negatives each candidate has, but there is no way to test that until election day and the votes are counted.

>in the debates
When will it happen? It could have been already but as I know Trump rejected debates with Hillary. On the other hand, he said in twitter that he is waiting for it.

You sound like a gigantic faggot.

>He said as he continually shills the LA times polls

Consider the following:

theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/09/why-democrats-in-western-pennsylvania-are-voting-trump/499577/

>Trump rejected debates with Hillary
what? No he hasn't.

No they aren't. You don't live in Ohio, do you?

>Even the staunch democrats in my town are voting Trump

The people you know do not constitute a valid statistical sample.

>Nobody I know is voting for Nixon/Reagan/etc.

NV, OH, & FL will go to Trump. Kek told me last night.

Depending of the backlash from he Charlotte chimp out, he may win NC as well. I was told: "Stoke the fire..."

We are a nation of immigrants. My grandparents were immigrants. Taking in the poor, tired masses is a part of American values and is why America is (was) loved all over the world. The American dream is (was) not just for Americans, it is for everyone. Losing the war for hearts and minds with this storm fag bullshit

You're all retarded niggers replying to a pathetic Correct The Record TM thread.

For real news go to theconservativetreehouse.com

DEBATE IS MONDAY
DEBATE IS MONDAY
DEBATE IS MONDAY

Pot heads or cheese heads famm... CO and WI are interesting cases and both leaning red. Wisconsin is actual most important and the greatest likelihood of going red. Wisconsin is an instakill

This, and the 3rd party candidates pull more from Clinton than Trump.

Johnson getting denied debate access is bad for Trumo.

wait4debates.exe

>Literally everyone i see in CA is voting for Trump too

Why do people like to cite Anecdotal evidence as proof?

Actually, New Hampshire could be an essential piece of the puzzle. See pic

Of course, this guesswork is all based on the crooked, Jewish polling which is completely skewed against Trump. If Dem turnout is the same as 2012 but Republican turnout is slightly higher - Trump wins. The popular vote can absolutely turn this into a landslide for Trump

Where is Mr. Kaine from again?

the american dream just like everything else in this world has limits. I am not paying for millions of uneducated fucks to sit around in my country with my taxes.

PA is 5% Clinton right now with roughly 46? days before the election. A month, and 3 debates is a lifetime in politics. PA is far from lost or untouchable. 10 point swings are not uncommon even later than it is now.

And all the polls are still weighted based on 2012. Who do you think is more popular? Mittens or Trump? Clinton or Obama? You see the problem?

We could get to Nov 8th and have a winner declared at 6pm Central if all the newly registered Repubs come out and vote.

Blacks were overwhelmingly Republican in the 19th century when the only black voters were educated favorites of slave owners (or even mulatto sons and grandsons) of slave owners

Since 1920 at least blacks have been mostly Democrat, 70% of blacks in 1932 voted FDR despite the Democrats supporting Jim Crow at that time.

Niggers are fucking stupid.

However Hispanics will trend towards the Republicans for two reasons- Democrats are moving too far to the left for Hispanics and conservative Hispanic Democrat-conservative white Republican intermarriage is very high in Texas and America at large

60% of Hispanics in Texas identify as white and nationally at least 1 in 3 "white Hispanics" marries a non-Hispanic white. This means that at least 1/4 of the Hispanic population of Texas including those who identify as non-white are married to non-Hispanic whites. 80% of Texan whites voted for George W. Bush in 2004, more than 70% voted for Romney in 2012.

"white Hispanic" children will trend conservative. It will not be until 2090 assuming a constant rate of growth among "non-white Hispanics" that they are numerous enough to overwhelm the white+"white Hispanic" Texans at the voting box if "white Hispanic" growth and shift towards the Republican party continues as it currently is.

>I have no idea how the electoral college works
I don't know why you quoted that, since it's something you should be saying yourself. Al Gore won by popular vote in 2000 but the electoral college put Bush in instead.

>This map
>Current

This is still the most current with the exception that Maine has 1 Red Vote.

>We are a nation of immigrants.
So?

>Taking in the poor, tired masses is a part of American values
No, that's just a dumb poem on the statue of liberty. This is a country not an international charity fund.

>The American dream is (was) not just for Americans
No it's for just Americans.

>Losing the war for hearts and minds with this storm fag bullshit
Go move to Sweden if you like open borders so much. The US has had strict immigration policies for much of its history. We should go back to that.

>everyone i see on this random poll is voting for Clinton!
gets my noggin a joggin

It looks like you don't understand how statistics work.

If the distribution of the sample is not representative of the distribution of the population it claims to represent, it has about as much predictive value as numbers I make up in excel.

Ok, my question stays - when will it happen?

Does anyone even like Creepy Kaine?

>He said something that goes against my world view
>He MUST be supporting the opposite side!!1!

I love this board so much sometimes.

MONDAY

>Johnson getting denied debate access is bad for Trumo.

Not really, considering he is a Clinton operative and would've attacked Trump relentlessly and with more credibility than Hillary since good goys view him as a "neutral"

>Depending of the backlash from he Charlotte chimp out

Charlottean here, what the fuck are you talking about?

A lot of these are questionable. North Carolina is a solid red state. Republican congressman, republican senate. Only democrats act like it's a purple state, just like how they tried to act like Georgia was a purple state.

Trump is ahead in CO in recent polls. He's ahead in NM, OH, NJ, and FL too. MI, PA, VA, and even IL and MN are possibilities. We still have a month to go. We have the debates coming up, more wikileaks info on Hillary coming out, and more seizures and icky green goo from Hillary to come. Trump is surging in the polls, and it looks like he's going nowhere but up. Things can only get worse for Hillary.

I'm thinking Trump will win with over 300 electoral votes.

A time to cast away stones, and a time to gather stones together; a time to embrace, and a time to refrain from embracing; A time to get, and a time to lose; a time to keep, and a time to cast away; A time to rend, and a time to sew; a time to keep silence, and a time to speak; A time to love, and a time to hate; a time of war, and a time of peace. What profit hath he that worketh in that wherein he laboureth? I have seen the travail, which God hath given to the sons of men to be exercised in it. He hath made every thing beautiful in his time: also he hath set the world in their heart, so that no man can find out the work that God maketh from the beginning to the end.

Im not Christian but these words are true.

If we don't get smart and realize this is not a time for love we may never be able to be that beacon of hope again.

The electors are supposed to vote according to their state's laws

If the race was close and some elector decided to go for Clinton because "fug drumpf xddd" that person would need to go into protective custody along with their family. If enough electors decided to break the rules to fuck over Trump then there would be rioting in the streets.

There is a reason why the electors of Florida went for Bush because of their state's vote rather than acceding to the logic of "but Gore got more votes in California so he won the popular vote".

>We are a nation of immigrants.
And we're also a nation of laws. Trump has no problem with immigrants coming here, but you have to do it legally.

Trump is done Cred Forums, the recents allegations against freedom of speech, the charity scandal, his nazi son comparing skittles with people, now he wants to seize the oil of Iraq even if that is a crime war.

He is not longer the crazy guy with a heart of gold, he is a piece of shit like Hillary but he is still a nut job.

>NC is a solid red state
It hasn't been for a while actually

GET IN HERE

You can bet North Carolina is gonna turn red because, of all the nigger nigging over shit is gonna drive alot of people to Trump.

>that one year even Indiana went blue because they were caught up in the "hope and change" of things
gross

>june polls in 1980

By the time of the debates Anderson had fallen to 15% and by the time it was right before the election people saying they would vote for neither carter nor Reagan were only 8% in the polls. Anderson got 7%

Libertarians are the largest 3rd party faction and will likely split for Trump. Greens and left-libertarians (dude weed) are mostly Bernouts and will not go for Hillary.

He's winning NM

> he may win NC as well

You're retarded if you think NC has any chance of going blue. "may win"

Get the fuck out.

I'm from PA and I can see why you'd have this view. People always forget to factor in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. In my small town, there are 8 Trump signs that I know of and only 1 Hillary sign. I also think PA is one of the states the democrats will focus on cheating in.

However, I do think PA is a possibility. There is still plenty of time to go and Trump is going nowhere but up in the polls. I think by the time the election comes around he will win PA, even in spite of the cheating.

>Taking in the poor, tired masses is a part of American values and is why America is (was) loved all over the world.
That was propoganda to give us bulk troops/workers for the:

>Native American wars
>WW1 recovery
>WW2 recovery

Fuck off, we're full.

>My shitty map is better than maps based on actual poll averages
wew lad

No shit Sanders won Vermont, he's their senator retard.

Also, it was freakin' Obama. The blacks probably voted just for the chance of voting for a black man. They won't be nearly as interested in voting for Hillary

We definitely didn't. I didn't know a single person who voted romney/mccain. Now I'm seeing families of black people all voting Trump. Even in the shitty neighborhoods of Pittsburgh there are a lot of blacks voting Trump.

This too

Nobody is voting for Shillary either. She's going to get the lowest democrat turnout ever

It has nothing to do with Mexicans

The Hispanics in NM are largely descended from Spanish colonists, the Lujan family controls 2 of 3 congressional seats. They were literally there first and built cities like Santa Fe and Albuquerque

Hence NM is a swing state, the Spanish don't like the Anglos the way the French in Canada don't like the Anglos. However similar to Texas there are also many Spanish who despise illegals even more and want them gone. Likewise deporting illegals is very popular among the Anglos of New Mexico as well. It is a swing state but I'd say it's probably in Trump's favor.

Not going to happen. For starts, the biggest employer in Virginia is the US Federal Government. Its why Virginia turned blue in the first place. Republican demands to "shut down the government", shrill attacks on "The Bloated Bureaucracy" and so on allied most of the middle class Whites in Virginia with the traditionally democratic party supporting Blacks.

Trump might have support in the Western and southern counties, but their population is not enough to overcome the votes in the Richmond Metro, Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads.

Johnson objectively takes more from Hilary than Trump. That's not a good thing, since many will head back home by november.

No, again you misunderstand.

There are two ways to include party identification in a poll.

One is to already know it when you make the call -- you are calling from a list of registered voters, and party registration is on the call list. With that, you can make, say, 40% of your respondents Democrats in an area where 40% of voters are registers Democrats.

The other way is to just use random lists of numbers, and ask people do they consider themselves to be Republicans or Democrats. This way allows on the random chance of who you call to produce a representative saple, and the question you are asking is essentially to track the popularity of the party labels as they shift over time. Not everybody who is registered as a Republican will answer "Republican," maybe this year they identify more with the Democrats, or think of themselves as being Independent, maybe a given Democrat will say "I am Independent," or self identify as a Republican.

If you are doing the second sort of party ID, you would not want to artificially "balance" the poll to represent how people are registered, because that would skew the poll away from reality since what you are measuring is not how they are registered down at the Board of Elections, but how they think of themselves in relation to the parties.

When looking at polls, it is important to delve into the methodology so that you understand what is going on.

CO is also Trump, Trump is winning

Presumably some number of people do. I have not looked at his favorable/unfavorable, if anybody is even polling for that.

Impact of VP picks is small, even in their home state, but it is worth a point or two which can make all the difference in a home-state that is otherwise in play.

>GA
>toss up

>easy access to voting is bad

I literally just fucking explained that left-libertarians are going to stay with Johnson

>When looking at polls, it is important to delve into the methodology so that you understand what is going on.

Which is what Cred Forums does when we say the polls are biased you retard.

>he been gone for a month and a half

that shit is so outdated

If it wasn't a toss up, why would Trump tweet this poll?

>States where Clinton is up by a couple points are lean or even fucking solid dem
>States where Trump are up by a couple points are toss-up

Really corrected my record. Those are the same faggots who softballed the delegate count projection during the primaries. They same retards who had Cruz winning Indiana.

>Forgetting to add these states as following swing states:

>NM
>WI
>MI
>PA
>VT
>NJ
>RI

Once you've put them up as swing states, then you got a very accurate map.

The polling agencies are HEAVILY undersampling independents and only polling Filtadelphia which is in itself a heavily democratic c(sh)ity. PA is the most hurt out of all states when it comes to free trade and Trump will win every single blue collar honest working class men for sure (and also people who didn't vote at all). No one is going to believe the turnout coming from PA.

Now answers b4 the obvious questions

>NM
>VT
>NJ
>RI

Unless you live under a rock, Trump is polling very well in NM despitte the rigged polls and >le methodology. He also is withing MoE in RI, NJ. Now here is the Vermont shocker: Ipsos/Reuters put VT as RED in their electoral map. It wasn't a mistake, they pointed out that this election VT is 95 percent red. B4 you ask "how the fuck is VT voting Trump" remember the times when he tried to pander to Bernie voters. VT hates hillary with a passion and Bernie is their Paraiah whom is a INDEPENDENT senator, not a democrat. Are they going to vote for a corrupt witch, or for >le orange president pandering to Bernie cucks?

>WI
>MI

Despite Paul Ryan not being able to pull Wisconsin, Trump just by rallying there a couple of times managed to be really close behind Hillary. And the fact that Michigan and Wisconsin is so god damn close makes them swing states. They are anything but solid blue states in this election.

Bear in mind that each campaign selects their own electors -- so the chances of a faithless elector swaying an election are extremely slim, unless the campaign is totally retarded they will not select as electors a bunch of guys who will then vote against their candidate.

You do, rarely, see a faithless elector cast a vote that does not change the outcome, as a statement. That's how the Libertarians got their one and only electoral vote in three decades of running candidates for President.

What fucking kind of shit is this? You don't sound like you have ever been here before. "Nation of immigrants"? The American dream is for everyone? Nice Kikebook-Progressive talking points, you fucking fag.

Don't pretend that bringing impoverished third world immigrants into the US helps anyone except people buying votes. It's disgusting. Never say that again.

The only way America can tangibly help the world is the same way it has helped them over the last 100 years. Global cultural victory. People used to burn whale blubber to stay warm. In those places, you can buy a coke and an electric hotplate. Why? The rising tide lifts all boats. Raise the standard of living for all human beings by continuing advance technology and making it cheap. Raise the cost of labor by making information available across the world. Have you heard of the internet? You're welcome. Do you know how much poverty across India and China has been obliterated just through that alone, making markets for Pajeet and Chan programmers to live and work in? Their families? How the economy of India itself was improved by American computers, Microsoft technologies, American products that needed selling?

Watch this video. Never pretend immigration is doing anything but importing voters and removing the most important brains from where they are most needed. You are fucking disgusting.

youtube.com/watch?v=LPjzfGChGlE

The biggest employer is the government because of the military

If having non-military voters in VA was enough to turn it blue then it would have been blue 50 years ago

Virginia's swing in 2008 was entirely the result of the middle class voting Obama because of the recession, blacks voting Obama because blacks, students turning out for Obama and many working class people in the mountains voting for Obama

This is also why NC voted Obama.

As we saw in 2012 that coalition wasn't enough to keep NC Democrat, only VA.

In 2016 Hillary has alienated or lost votes among all those groups and will lose VA.

>completely possible.
What does such fierece denial feel like?

Oi, cuntnugget, niggerkike, you don't even have the right to trash talk NH. Even though we may be "irrelevant" to you, we were the state that propelled Trump's high energy campaign at the start. And take this as word. Trump WILL win NH. Hillary has no ground game, and for every 1 hillary sign, there are 4-5 trump signs. We will only lose NH if Hillary cheats and has dead people vote.

Will be interesting to see what NC (and some other states) do without a black candidate at the top forcing a high black turnout.

This year, being atypical in some obvious respects, may not be a good test case.

Longer than that. Literally after their independence then statehood they were complaining that having a state from the Crescent City down to Los Angeles wasn't going to work. It has been bandied about that it is too large to be effectively governed but they never do anything about it.

Was published on the 20th
foxnews.com/politics/2016/09/20/fox-news-electoral-scorecard-2016-race-tightens-in-key-battlegrounds.html

If you are on welfare you shouldn't be allowed to vote, end of story. You are not a taxpayer beyond sales tax (which is a state tax) and therefore do not contribute to society. Likewise creating laws which allow people who have never voted or been interested in voting to be bused in on the day of the election, get registered and vote on the same day is also unacceptable. If you cannot be assed to care at least 6 months in advance then you clearly don't care enough about the process to have a legitimate say in voting.

>You're from CTR!
But I'm using a fox news poll, are you stupid enough to actually believe FOX NEWS wants Clinton to win?

I agree. You have to be from PA and understand it to see it. Aside from the asshole bookends of Pitt and Philly, and the pimples of places like Harrisburg, the state loves Trump.

If Trump talks jobs, that's all he needs to take PA.

>Hillary campaign still putting AZ and GA in the "toss up" category

They're more fucked than they think

>trusting fox
Ailes left and Murdoch is #WithHer.

>Iowa blue
>Maine red but 1 split for democrats
there's your mistake senpai

New Mexico is officially RED.

>But I'm using a fox news poll, are you stupid enough to actually believe FOX NEWS wants Clinton to win?
are you stupid enough to actually believe FOX NEWS wants Clinton to lose?

You clearly haven't been paying attention faggot. The only two there for Trump are Hannity and O'Reily. The rest do nothing but shit on him all day.

it will come down to colorodo

NV, FL, OH, NH are going Trump
Hillary is slowly losing NC & CO is becoming undone because of Johnson

You're clearly CTR. Fox News has been anti or lukewarm to Trump the entire election because of its ties to the House of Saud and Rupert Murdoch's support for open borders and outsourcing.

You're clearly being told by your bosses that this is "le republican board" and therefore you're under the mistaken impression we put stock in anything Fox says.

i expect trump will win NM. the immigrant pop here is much smaller than most states and its not a huge issue at all for "hispanics" here, like an earlier poster said most NM hispanics trace their roots here back centuries. they are concerned about the same stuff as white NMers. crime, economy, healthcare etc..

Also CO

Alot of those military voters vote absentee in their home states bro. And I think you are forgetting about the second order affects of all the companies and economic activity that is also dependent on a well functioning Federal Government.

Virginia did not flip in 2008. It flipped in the 2006 during the off year elections, 2 years BEFORE the Great Recession. The only thing keeping the Republicans in charge of the legislature right now was the 2010 Tea Party wave and a redistricting push that resulted in gerrymandering so bad the Courts have ordered the whole thing redone.

>PA
>swing state

top roach

>This is largely because states like NY and CA have huge turnout due to laws
I live in NY, they make it very difficult to register

t. Trump wins

>Sean Hannity wants Clinton to win
>Bill O' Reilly wants Clinton to win
my fucking sides you fucking retard, even more so, the map was done by fucking Lt. Bryan Murphy - please do your research on who he actually is before you say such retarded shit you simpleton

Trump is ahead in CO and NC

>reading comprehension

Dem Turnout won't be as high as 2012. This is why Reuters keeps confusing themselves and adjusting their polls.

Trump is currently leading in NM

PA and MI aren't locks for Hill either

Thanks for all the good info, turkish friend.

>bullshit: the post

Virginia has huge numbers of military people who live here because of the Pentagon and Norfolk. You're full of shit and a moron.

There is a chance.

McCrory and the legislature have stirred up a mess with the "Bathroom Bill," which may drive turnout in unexpected ways. The "go to your own bathroom, dammit" ppart is broadlym though not universally, popular, but the provisions that remoed the rights of trans people from bringing suit if denied civil rights is not, and it enrages people who are on the left and strongly motivates them to vote. Whether it will drive turnout on the right is still open to question.

The Senate race is almost invisible so far, but Burr should win handily against what is barely more than token opposition.

But McCrory looks to be in serious trouble for a variety of reasons, so there will likely be more ticket-splitting near the top of the ballot than normal.

NC remains likely Red, but it would be unwise to count on it without continuing to make an effort.

>you in charge of reading comprehension

Just stop, you're embarrassing yourself at this point. You're a clueless retard that is totally out of his element.

>Trump will win VA

No. Of all the possible swings, this I do not believe. DC is too close and Trump means a big shake up. Those voters are NOT the kind who will benefit from a shake up as big as Trump (possibly the biggest since WW2).

Look at all the polling averages. WI, MI, MN and the usual swings will go Trump before VA.

This time around, VA is safe Democrat.

Look at how well Trump is doing in Ohio and it's a good guide that MI is probably going to swing.

Go back home Moustafa Al-Arabi. Your inability to read shows your lack of English.

As a man from Florida I feel the same. When Nate was claiming it was leaning blue if you lived here you would laugh at him.

>MI
>WI
>RI
>PA
>NM
>VA
>>>Guaranteed

Wew lad.
She's far behind having anything "in the bag"
Obama won RI (A solidly blue state) by over 20 points.
SHill leads by only 3 and we're not even at the first debate yet.

>The only two there for Trump are Hannity and O'Reily.
And O'Reilly only really hopped on board after the convention. Hannity always loved Trump, you can tell by the way he spoke in their early interviews

>I can't read

>could of

Put a gun in your mouth you illiterate cunt.

Normies/actual independants don't give a shit about gay/trans issues

They only care about jobs and the economy. It COULD happen, but if it does the entire race is pretty null and void at that point.

>he blacks probably voted just for the chance of voting for a black man. They won't be nearly as interested in voting for Hillary

Will be interesting to see what the woman vote does. Women are not a solid block, so of course she will not get the percentage that Obama got of the black vote. But there are a lot ore of them so, if turnout is differential at all, she might have a shot at getting similar margins there. If so, it's ogre.

That's not true. Some state parties select their electors, in other states the governor selects them.

It is not all one way for elector selection.

The part about the civil rights was indeed needlessly inflammatory. It also guaranteed people upset by the North Carolina Law would seek redress in Federal Court rather then State court as well, since it effectively shut that avenue down completely and precluded any sort of local solution.

>The year nobody voted.

we waz ""protestin"" en shieet
archive.is/bP99T

>waaaaaaaaaaah im losing so lets split up California

yeah why dont we split up the blue parts of red states too so we get more votes

didn't think so. fuck off rednecks. have fun when your meme candidate loses

If VA is safe Democrat then it's been safe Democrat for 100 years because of DC.

The fact is that it is not safe Democrat.

How you can claim it is a safe blue when all polls only have a Clinton maximum of +2 is beyond me

Here's my prediction. Thoughts?

>NH
>red

Basically, if hillary takes Colorado, trump needs all 5, if she takes oh, nc, or florida she wins, but if trump takes those three and Colorado, he wins.
Its actually pretty tight when you consider Florida and ohio are almost certainly going to trump. As soon as nc slips to securely trump, they're tied.

close to mine

I just don't know about NH, people tell me it's going republican though

>PA
>Blue.

Trump =/= regular GOP as it has been since 1968

This is why he can win in blue places and lose in red places.

>have state of 40 million people
>millions of northern, inland voters constantly underrepresented despite providing a majority of the resources which sustain a state and a disproportionate part of the tax base while using a much smaller portion of welfare
>southern, coastal voters who suck money and resources from the other half of the state dominate the legislature
>"HOW DARE YOU NOT WANT TO BE EXPLOITED BY A TYRANNICAL MAJORITY INTENT ON BENDING LAWS TO ENSURE IT REMAINS IN POWER FOREVER- YOU'RE JUST A SORE LOSER!"

No taxation without representation, cunt.

NM, MI and VA can still go red

At least NM can, desu.

The GOP since 1968 and earlier has been calling for the government to be slashed in terms of spending. If Trump is going to lose VA because he wants to slash spending then literally all GOP candidates before him should have also lost.

nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/clinton-trump-deadlocked-battleground-states-polls-n646216

Trump and Clinton are neck and neck there, so it's entirely possible.

qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2376

It's close, but Trump is getting beat pretty bad in PA. PA for Trump isn't happening.

NH reporting. It's not out of the question

>what is a democratic republic?

Polling has NC more securely Trump than NV or Florida. The election isn't tight, Trump is going to run up the score.

Why do retards like this get to be american citizens?

this is a disgrace

I am sorry, I spoke with poor precision. The state parties select their slates of electors -- which is usually essentially the same thing, since the Democrat candidate is usually pretty popular with the sort of Democrats that the party would select as electors, and the Republican candidate is usually pretty popular among loyal activist Republicans that would be selected as electors by their party. I suppose, in a year where Never Trump folks may be among those who would be selected as electors, there is the potential for mayhem this time, but it would seem unlikely since the best they could hope to do would be to deny either candidate a majority and throw it into the House. Since the House would be constrained to select from the top three electoral vote getters, that seems a waste of time.

>electors selected by the governor

Can you cite an example? It would seem odd that a Democrat governor would select the Republican slate of electors, or vice versa.

A system where taxpayers are supposed to make up the bulk of voters. California is specifically more democratic than a republic because letting welfare mexicans vote ensures that coastal Californians continue to dominate the state's coffers and resources at the expense of the conservatives which provide those taxes and resources.

No way in hell Virginia is flipping this year. All politics is local and the only thing Trump is promising us is to "shake up the Federal Government", which in standard political interpretation means tons of layoffs in our local economy.

Not a chance.

>PA isn't happening
>only down 5 points

Also
>poll has Trump getting trashed by independents

I'm calling bullshit.

>quinnipiac

Notice that he's tied in FL, only winning OH by 1 and losing NC by a large margin despite what all other polls say.

Quinnipiac is biased towards Democrats, it is not a good source to use.

The Hart-Celler Act of 1965. Retards are now given priority.

Please. The election is essentially tied right now from all I can see. The debates are the deciding factor and the Clinton camp is scared because she's sick.

However as of right now I think it's totally tied. You're seeing roughly the same hate/support for the candidates on everything that isn't bought out or an echo chamber.

The whole thing was just a great example of idiots getting carried away. The original Charlotte ordinance was inflammatory, intended as much to poke the right in the eye and provoke a response as to address any bathroom-related issues.

The legislature took the bait and went nuts, and McCrory, who is getting absolutely idiot political advice, did not take a few days to think about what he was doing and get some feedback before signing the thing.

My sense ids that he has never really enjoyed being governor -- that's probably a good thing.

It's all about turnout 90% of the state could be Democrat and it can go red just because it's raining and people hate Hillary. Trump just has the voter motivato on which is why I feel he is going to actually crush her in a lot more states than people think.

Trump will win the mitten, kek wills it

>NOVA is the whole state

Funny how that wasn't the case prior to 2008

>b-but there are like population shifts n stuff

It is completely impossible for a major population shift in favor of Democrats to take place in just 4 years, it would require the government to hire something like 200,000 more workers in that short period of time.

North Carolina, Ohio, Nevada, and Florida have recently put Trump ahead in their polling, and lean red. I'd be shocked if all four didn't go red.

Colorado polls have recently put Trump ahead, and he's been extremely close in New Hampshire and Maine. I wouldn't entirely count Michigan, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania out, either.

I'd rather be Trump than Hillary right now, especially given new voter registration, the Shy Tory Factor, the enthusiasm gap, the primary voter numbers comparison, and the party switching numbers.

If he holds up in the debates, the White House is his. He doesn't even have to do spectacular, he just needs to come across as an acceptable candidate.

>New Mexico
>Pennsylvania
>Virginia
>Michigan
>Wisconsin
>guaranteed for Hillary

m8 i got some bad news for you

>the "le Cred Forums is an echo chamber because people of a certain political persuasion gather here"

Shill, shitposter or just plain moron spotted.

>could of
I want to drive a train over your fucking head

Ah, had not turned on the news this morning.

We'll see -- the polie chief here has generally done a suppurb job in keeping things under control, and we actually have some "community leaders" on the west side who understand the difference between protesting and rioting. I suspect this will play out pretty peacefully, but we'll see.

>Colorado
>Red

This map is HEAVILY based on jewy polls and despite that, Trump only needs ONE toss up state to NOT lose at the very least (considering Republicans have a heavy majority in house and senate and literally everything. Unless some sort of bullshit happens, Trump will still win.

Soon we will see some sort of a "fix" in OH and NC and then trump will suddenly start fliping Michigan and Wisconsin just like he started flipping Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado.

Its over for Hillary, there is only one path and that is landslide.

He doesn't even need to be acceptable. He just needs to be more acceptable than Hillary, and therefore the lesser evil for the average moron to vote for.

I know it's bait, but:
You're not going to be saying that when you get to experience the effects of having open borders.

This.
2 reasons:
>She's not Obama
>She's Hillary Clinton
Both of these factors decrease the dem turnout.

Also, could Trump go full "DELEGATES, DAHNALD" mode and steal some electoral vote from her?

CO and NV are recently favoring Trump. Trump is winning.

Imagine if Hillary has a coughing fit or gets woozy, or just in general looks unhealthy on the stage.

Wouldn't that be a shame?

Exhibit A for why the Left in America is running circles around the Right.

The Right is arguing principles, and the Left is arguing its opinions. It is the "Opinion" of the Left that they want their things. Republicans want their things because they think they are absolutely correct in wanting them and why would anyone disagree?

But you can compromise your opinions, even if they support deeply held beliefs. You cannot compromise on principles. So when the Democrats make outrageous demands, its simply the first stage of their efforts. They eventually barter down, split the baby and walk off with half of what they wanted.

Republicans on the other hand view the initial demand as the first and final step of their political negotiations. No hope of bartering with the opposition, since the opposition is wrong. Inevitably they get challenged anyway, either in the election, in the legilsatures or in the courts, and since their demands are almost always inflexible, they don't even get half the baby, they get nothing and in some cases even see their own existing policies get curtailed rather then advanced.

>>>>>>>Vermont

Trump does not want to slash spending though. He is an advocate of a pretty activist government, which takes spending money, though he wants to change the places where money is spent.

Almost everyone I served with in the navy voted absentee, and had a driver's licence from their home state. You can do that shit for a full 20 year career if you want. I lived in Florida for 2 elections and didn't once vote there

That has to be the stupidest thing I've read ever.
Rubio was Florida's senator and got Trump Train'd over in the primaries.
Fucking moron.

(((Reuters/Ipsos))) polls reported that VT is going to vote Trump with high confidence (translation: 95% chance for Trump to win) and they didn't even bother polling so (((RCP))) and other agencies wouldn't get fucked.

Also (((Reuters/Ipsos))) electoral college map made Vermont red. It was NOT a mistake.

I literally think it's completely the opposite of what you just said. The left is hung up on their principles (diversity is strength, guns are bad, etc.) without compromise.

How many swing states have electronic voting? I heard internet voting is coming too.

>le jews xD
>le polling doesn't matter unless it favors us

fuck off roach

Of course Cred Forums is an echo chamber. The world has split into two competing echo chambers.

Which is why the "Trump landslide" idea is nonsense. That would require an actual breakdown of the partisan divide to move people to vote the other way.

Trump is not being hailed by the media like Reagan and Obama, so expect any victory to be very slim. There is no grassroots celebration of Hillary either, so her victory would be slim, too.

You have a populist hated by the media and a media darling hated by the populace. These two things tend to cancel out each other.

Because they would prefer an outsider more like sanders than hillary.

In an odd way because trump is an outsider he is better for Vermont than the dems

>90% of the state could be Democrat and it can go red just because it's raining

Yeah, no.

I mean, technically, but it would ave to be raining like a summbitch to shift the electorate 41 points.

>implying florida abd ohio are even possible Hillary
>implying Maine isn't a full tossup with one point guranteed either way
>implying Wisconsin and Michigan aren't up for grabs
>implying Delaware and Rhode Island are guranteed blue
>implying Oregon isn't in play
>implying Virginia isn't split
>implying turnout doesn't favor Trump overall in Pennsylvania
kek

Most of the people who work in the Pentagon are Civilians user and live in Virginia. It is after all the HQ of the CIVILIAN Department of the Defense, a separate entity to the military proper. The active duty soldiers are in the Norfolk area mostly

And this post explains why that does not matter.

>>If you are on welfare you shouldn't be allowed to vote, end of story.

>>Not realizing that there are millions more white trash hillbillies than queen lequisha's in the ghetto collecting welfare.

Hail Shillary.

NH here. Fairly confident red will have it. Gonna be close though.

PRAISE

PA BRO HERE TOO KING OF PRUSSIA/BRIDGEPORT BOI

MUH DIPPY EGGS

>imblyign drumpf doesnt win just because i say so
kek

>Also (((Reuters/Ipsos))) electoral college map made Vermont red. It was NOT a mistake.
I am aware of that, I still find it hard to believe.

Vermont votes overwhelmingly democrat each time. It's kinda like Utah and Trump, they both lost it big in the primaries, but they will win it anyway. Still, it's not impossible, maybe they do hate Hillary a lot.

Not at all mein freund. The Democratcs are only agitating for an "Assault weapons ban" in order to Compromise and drop it in exchange for just universal background checks. Guns are bad is a Principled statement sure, but its not one deeply held by the Left, which is as you say, more focused on ethnic equality issues these days.

Ignoring polls, is there any data suggesting Trump is more likely to win than Hillary?

Registrations?

Voter enthusiasm?

>The Democratcs are only agitating for an "Assault weapons ban" in order to Compromise and drop it in exchange for just universal background checks
Total bullshit. We've had an "assault weapons" ban before. Fortunately, it expired, but democrats want to make it permanent.

NBC getting increasingly nervous.

>When the Nazi Drumpf is going to win
>When you pushed the whites too far and now they're elected a Führer to put you all in camps

And then change the "average voter pool" so that the 10% that does vote is still not a statistical sampling of how the State would have voted if turnout was higher.

Turnout only matters as a percentage of specific voting groups. Blacks, Millennials, White Men, etc.

>I'd rather be Trump than Hillary right now

I tend to agree.

Hillary has always been a poor campaigner, and her staff has always been borderline incompetent -- this is not Bill's Political Machine. And now it looks like her health is finally getting some attention.

Trump certainly has weaknesses and vulnerabilities, but I suspect that "indignation fatigue" is setting in, and his biggest weakness (his tendency to say inflammatory things that energize the opposition) is being nullified.

In most elections, I tend to discount the :it all coes down to the debates" meme, my sense is that debates only usually matter if somebody gets off the perfect line (...my opponent's youth and inexperience) or makes a huge gaffe (Poland is free,) but this might be a year where that is true. And of course, both candidates are capable of making the killer mistake in a debate -- my daydream scenario, for lulz, is that Hillary collapses into a foaming-at-the-mouth seizure just as Trump begins to talk about sacrificing children to Cthulhu.

>imitate a mentally challenged person to get a point across
>too lazy to research the hordes of democrats leaving the party, democrats for Trump reports over 700,000

Great research there bud

le meme magik XD

SHILLARY BTFO xd

oh yeah and I'm in amsterdam and NO ONE IS VOTING FOR HILLARY

LITERALLY NOT ONE

BTFO

>I don't check polling methodology xD
>I don't care Independents being heavily undersampled despite them being the majority
>I will completely ignore the fact that the entire media is against Trump and that agencies shift methodology every time Trump starts winning.

You're either a huge newfag enjoying his "baby's first roach meme" or you're from CTR. Either way, fuck off and go to cuck threads which are threads that you most enjoy

I don't disagree with you when you find it hard to believe, it is after all only one poll.

But there is seldom polling done in Vermont. Shillary voters and democrats overall are going to be very complacent and Vermont loves outsiders so this theory does make a lot of sense.

Hilarious. I think I'll take that trade; maybe we'd finally get somewhere.

True, but if the Republicans agreed to just Universal Background checks, banning Assault Weapons would get dropped like a hot rock. Obama wants some sort of Gun Control measure passed before he leaves so he would take a deal that got him something in a heartbeat.

As it stands though, Republicans don't want to compromise, so they risk leaving this debate on the table, and if Hillary wins in a landslide this fall the Democrats will be able to pass everything they want when it comes to Gun Control.

Which is the point I am making. Democrats are more then happy to compromise their Principles to get things done, since they are not as emotionally wedded to them as Republicans are. But this also means that Republican inflexibility means they risk losing everything rather then a few things. When you put everything on the line in politics, that is generally the price you pay when you lose.

Check Fox News. They had a poll that said, in pretty simple terms, that the public support new leaders but have doubts over whether Trump is presidential enough.

If he looks presidential in the debates, he sures up that group and wins.

Hillary has it harder because no one is quite sure how to get people to like her after 12 months of media shilling.

Nice typo

Long time Republican her, I absolutely agree.

>guns are bad, etc.) without compromise.

But look at that issue. They take a ban on this here, a restriction on that there -- they do not demand a total ban on guns or nothing. They are masters of incrementalism, and Republicans have been slow, in recent decades, to counter that.

The one place the Ds have been ablke to walk away with the whole loaf repeatedly is in the Supreme Court -- they can't do that as successfully in more democratic arenas, so they nibble away at things, never giving up an inch, always taking an inch when they can.

Iowa is red, NH and nm are tied and he is now ahead in Nc

I think Trump can win Virginia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, New Mexico and New Hampshire.

There are several more swing states in this election than the ones you mentioned.

OH is guaranteed red. FL? 75% odds or better. NC? no contest.

Wi and MI are guaranteed blue, PA 25% odds it goes red.

NM? probably blue. too many spics. CO? I'd give it 50/50 odds.

Fuckin trips

NC here
I'm a first time voter for Trump, and from talking around town everybody seems to like him, or at least hate Hillary. Obviously this is "poll data," but it's been my experience.

Our only problems would be the faggots living in Charlotte, Wilmington, Raleigh. However, I think Dem turnout will be weak after what happen to Bernie, and the fact that Clinton is a cunt.

Because Republicans understand that's just step one. The left will never be satisfied until they get complete gun bans. We've been through this before; it's taken decades to undo restrictive gun legislation.

>They are masters of incrementalism
Sure. That doesn't mean they are compromising their principles. On the contrary, they are slowly advancing them.

>Universal Background checks

But if the Democrats implemented it, they'd structure it in such a way that it would be enormously inconvenient, and in all likelihood a significant consumer cost.

Alternatively, they'd set it up such that the requirements could be altered down the road without legislative action - i.e. by unelected bureaucrats. So they get the foothold, then ratchet the second amendment into irrelevance.

It's mainly just unfair that the amount of Republican voter weight that is thrown out the window in that state is greater than FORTY FUCKING FIVE of the 50 states electorate each

The emperor is ahead in Colorado

>Ignoring data, does anybody have feelings?

But OK, it could be argues that Hillary suffers from an enthusiasm gap. Whether she can get Obama into the neighborhoods and make a "Look at my vagina!" pitch to leftist women and correct that remains to be seen.

Also, please God, not a literal "look at my vagina..."

I'm a UPenn grad student. Plenty of people here are voting for Trump when they realize you're doing the same. The morale for Hillary supporters is the lowest I've ever seen for any candidate, and there are barely any Hillary cocksuckers to begin with.

They are going to stay home Nov 8

You are literally making this shit up

They want in absolutes, they win in increments.

They want NO GUNS, but they are willing to take any little step that gets them closer, in a way the Republicans have never really learned to do.

>2 posts by this ID

That is not accurate.
Trump is way up in
>OH
>NC
>NV
>FL

MEEEEANWHILE
>RH
>NH
>MI
>WI
>NM
Are all in play.

This is why I lean right and look to the Constitution. Arguing based on principles is how it SHOULD BE. Otherwise your opinions are just arbitrary and arguing with opinions is literally a pointless pissing contest. The left is all about feels over reals.

Not impossible desu.
youtube.com/watch?v=eVvYp132V5Y
I think that people in Vermont just don't feel motivated to vote for Clinton and/or are AfterBerners (besides, it's his home state) who are voting Trump, so he might just win it.

Trump is also only 6 points behind in DC in a recent (((Google))) Survey poll.
6, not 60.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/district-of-columbia/

ITT: CTR

Yeah, but it has been known to rain in one precinct and not in another.

And, with something like weather driving turnout down, enthusiasm matters.

But the amount of rain needed to shove a 90-10 potential electorate into a 49-51 vote would be of Ark-building proportions.

>hordes of democrats leaving the party, democrats for Trump reports over 700,000

This compares to Democrats who voted Republican last time... how? How does the number of Republicans unwilling to vote for the nominee compare to last time?

You need more than one fact here.

>small hick PA towns

Ok, but what about PA's densely populated cities? Philly and Pittsburgh pretty much make the state blue.

It's absolutely insane how he is doing so well in DC. I have a feeling that good poll numbers indicate that he can do incredibly well in heavily liberal areas such as NoVA, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh etc.

>If he looks presidential in the debates

Probably, but that is not a given, that he can do that in a way that he did not do in previous debates. He'll need to give up on the strategy of "Trump being Trump" that stood him in good stead during the primaries, in recognition that a general election debate is a different animal.

There are signs he's been trying to do that in spoeeches, as campaign Staff ver. 3.2 works on htings like his stump speech. But he still has a tedency to break out into Trumpisms -- which delight the base, but make everybody else nervous.

How the debates will play out is not obvious.

>Hillary has it harder because no one is quite sure how to get people to like her after 12 months of media shilling.

First, it has been a lot more than that -- they have loved her for years and years, and only reluctantly abandoned her for Obama.

But more to the point, her goal in the debate is pretty simple at this point. Do Not Faint or Literally Die onstage. Look fit and relaxed and rested and healthy. She has to look like a safe pair of hands, while hoping that between any barbs she plants and what the moderators do, Trump loses his cool or says something that can be used against him..