Welp

the nbc polll seems like total bullshit. She just magically jumps up 7 fucking points?

>Could have something to do with the fucking +7 WSJ poll.

>He said as he shills those +7 la times polls

Wait for the first debates. Trump is a fucking monster when it comes to that. Did you see what he did to his 15+ opponents in the primaries? Now what do you think is going to happen when he focuses all of his wrath on one person, let alone one as weak as Hillary? She's going down, mate.

>Fucking outlier polls!
>b-b-b-but muh LA times polls are legit!

>typically left news stations show hillary more popular
>typically right news stations show trump more popular

These polls are taken seriously why?

>needs 2 NBC polls to bring her over 1%
>not a total failure

Has no idea how polling works

>Did you see what he did to his 15+ opponents in the primaries?

Yeah he talked over them and insulted them but had very little to say about policies. Also he worked the crowd.

Sadly for you he can't do any of that at the debates. Crowds are required to shut the fuck up and he has to speak for longer periods of time. Can't wait for him to squirm when he has nothing substantial to say.

Also stay the fuck out of our politics.

...

Trump won't win. Dubs say so

Trump will win. Dubs say so

Nothing went wrong. If you autistic fucks haven't been paying attention the polls are rigged. ALL of them.

Why do you think we even have weekly polling? To keep people engaged. To control them. To manipulate them with the supposed opinions of "the majority." It becomes another sporting event for the goy to pick sides on and bet on the winners.

One surefire way of getting the liberal base to go out and vote is to make them think there is a tight race. Make Trump pull ahead for just a bit, flood the kikebait with mass panic and chaos, and you've just inspired your base to fight harder instead of staying home and masturbating this year.

It. Is. All. Fake.

You are either trolling or you've never heard Hillary speak. She has nothing on Trump.

>2 NBC polls
okie dokie

d*ng.......*shoots slef*............

.......

you forgot
>INNN THE EEENNNND IT DOESN"T EVEN MATTER
shill

This raises the point that the RCP average is kind of ridiculous to start with, even if it isn't rigged itself which I have reason to believe.

If one poll puts Trump in the lead by 10 and another puts Clinton in the lead by 10 then they can't both be right and are both automatically untrustworthy. Trusting the average doesn't make sense because it is the average of two untrustworthy polls.

More importantly, the media is not evenly divided between liberal sources and conservative ones at the national level. Averaging out their polls does not get rid of bias because there will be more biased liberal polls than biased conservative polls. The only poll that people usually say reports ridiculously high numbers for Trump is the LA times, Clinton has more sketchy polls than I can name.

There really is no way to be sure of who is ahead now, but the RCP keeps us aware of potential trends.

Convinced the L.A. Times is looking for clickbait shekels

...

>NBC/SurveyMonkey
>AKA online polling
Gas yourself

A weeb is voting for Shillary?

What a shocker. Again proving the lowest denominators of society are democrat.

>A weeb is voting for Shillary?

I take it you've never been in the Trump gens.

I see they've stopped mentioning their demographics all together, would have for it to be so blatantly obvious when they oversample.

Fuck off reddit

>+7
Wow, that really corrected my record

They are both outliners the only asinine aspect is the fact that 2 NBC polls are in the same model

>45% dem, 13% indie, 37% repub...

Strong Democrat .............................22 Not very strong Democrat ...............10 Independent/lean Democrat ............13 Strictly Independent.........................13 Independent/lean Republican ..........12 Not very strong Republican .............10 Strong Republican ...........................15 Other (VOL) ...................................5

Except LA times is only Trump +4 while every other poll is Clinton +1 at max

Not even Nate Bronze gives NBC polls any weight

You don't know how sampling works.
You say what you are while you're being polled

And reuters and fox put trump up as well . I can buy the line that LA is a skewd outliner despite their high sample size, but that makes NBC even worse comissioning several polls in a month

I don't think you know how sampling works.
>The accepted split is there are about 3% more democrats than republicans in the USA
>gallup.com/poll/188096/democratic-republican-identification-near-historical-lows.aspx

That means you want to sample about 3% more democrats than republicans to get an accurate poll.

NBC/WSJ has sampled 8% more democrats in their poll released today.

Trump's now up in Ohio, Nevada, North Carolina, and Florida. He just needs 1 other toss up state out of about 5 or 6 considered tossups right now.

Don't think of Nate putting trump's odds at 40% as Trump losing either, 40% is almost as high as Trump has even been in Nate's model.

It's trends that mean something.

>more ppl believe Hillary is better on illegal immigration than Trump

fucking kek. Dig into the numbers, some of these polls are bs.

>Margin of error only in line with 2/7 other polls
>One of them is another NBC poll

Hmmmmmmmmmmm

But he also can't afford to lose one of those

I WAS HAPPY IN THE HAZE OF A DRUNKEN HOUR

>Likely voters that voted in 2012 or 2014
>18-24 year olds

Why do people think Hillary will get Obama's turnout?

Nate's model has the chances of him winning each of those toss ups at a total of more than 100%, so he just needs to have some luck in one.

On the other hand, Nate's model also says his chance of winning Florida, Ohio, etc. are far from guaranteed.

Thank you for correcting the record, Schlomo Shekelstein!

They don't. They are HOPING they do. It only gives them an excuse to create this polls in a way that makes Hillary seem like she has more support than she does.

Dude....

Just wait for Hitler!

>NBC +6 Hillary
>NBC +5 Hillary
>No other pollster says more than +2 Hillary in the 4-way national race

Why is NBC allowed to have two of its commissioned polls up simultaneously?

Just a poll 101 tip:

Every self respecting poll has at most a +/-2.5 margin of error. So unless there is more than 5% difference between the candidates, they are tied.