Trump gaining in Pennsylvania

Is this a fluke, or have the people finally woken up?

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fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/
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I'm kind of assuming Trump's actual election day support will surpass polls by a few percentage points. This would fit the pattern of Brexit, the 2015 "Shy Tory" vote, the 2014 midterms, etc. People remember that the Leave vote was a surprise given the polling and exit poll data, but the 2014 midterm polling overestimated the Democrats' support significantly. When the votes were actually counted they got their asses kicked in 2014.

fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/

This isn't a midterm, it's a presidential election. So it's different. That said, if there were ever an election with a "shy" portion of the electorate, and where social desirability bias is going to be hugely influential in the polling, this would be it.

Trumps going to win in a fucking landslide. This is reagan level we're talking about. Hillary has proven in the last few months that shes completely unfit to be president, not even her grrrrl power can save her now. We're on the brink right now and people need a strong leader, they will flock to trump like pigs to a garbage can.

Yup
If a significant shy tory equivalent were to pop up
This is the year

>you lived to see the democratic party die in america
feels good

Clinton is FAR surpassing trump in the national polls retard, trump has no chance.

>national polls
>mattering

ok

......said no one ever!

I volunteer for the Trump campaign in PA. We're working very hard in key areas to make sure this state goes red.

I get political survey calls every couple of days right now at least. I had decided long ago that I'm voting Trump. I used to just say no thanks, but this year I decided what the hell, I'll answer the surveys.

When it's an automated call it's no issue. I press 2 for Trump, or whatever. Then one time it was a longer survey with an actual person on the other line. There were a bunch of questions about state level stuff. Then finally the big question came. Who was I voting for in the presidential election. I could tell the lady working for the polling outfit was a middle aged or older black lady. She was really nice too. I had this sudden bizarre hesitation. I actually answered I wasn't sure yet. It wasn't fucking true. I know exactly how I'm going to vote and have known for months. I felt really dumb after. Then I realized I'm basically still a somewhat Shy Trump Voter. If someone like me has that happen, there are lots, lots more who are gonna say shit like they're undecided or they're voting Johnson, and then when it comes time to actually cast that ballot they're gonna think to themselves, "fuck Hillary, let's give making America great again a try."

National polls are 30% California.

Electoral college is 10% California

One vote is for someone who will destroy America, and the other is a mystery box labeled "Make America Great Again." I'm opening the box anons.

I wouldn't hold my breath

Trump can also win Illinois. The fact that Clinton is only +7 there is a good bellwether for the fact that Trump is destroying her in the rust belt.

who are they going to run in 2020? some tranny nigger kike

keep up the good work user. good job

Elizabeth Warren. And it's going to be comfy af.

He got the shift entirely from Johnson voters. Thanks Rato!

>Trump winning Illinois

Trump has no chance in hell of winning PA. The state has been solid blue since 1992. The areas of Pittsburgh and Philly will overwhelmingly favor Hillary and tip the state in her favor.

Honestly hoping for Trump to win PA is just setting yourself up for disappointment. He is going to lose that state and almost surely the election. There are simply not enough pro-Trump people in PA to outweight the pro-Hillary areas.

Hey neighbor, where can I get some of that acid?

also this.

Trump hasnt registered enough voters to win PA.

Its like trying to flip Illinois. The major city and suburbs outweigh the entire state by volume. I personally think that Illinois should be split into two states.

Trump won early election, it's already over, just say it President Trump

If he wins Pennsylvania its going to be a land slide. Likely Michigan and another solid blue state will also probably flip

Don't tell me you actually believe this

Anyone notice something about PA polls? They always over sample Dems, and undersample independents. They put independents at 10-20%, when in reality, they are closer to 40%. Remember after the RNC when all the polls had trump winning. They all had 30% independents. Why are the polls sampling less independents now? I notice they have been doing the same thing in Michigan and PA.

Yeah. I don't know if he's going to win Penn. But if he does win it, it's because he's destroying Clinton on election day. And if he comes close then it could end up still being bad news for Clinton. If he actually gets within a couple of points the Democrats would be scared, it would be like the Newcastle upon Tyne result in the Brexit vote where Remain still won, but badly underperformed compared to expectations.

I mean to say, they put independents at 10-12%.

Pretty sure there are still enough deceased voters in Illinois to put the Dems over the top there no matter what happens.

And for those who say he doesn't have enough support in Penn, Pennsylvania is 80% white, and only goes Dem because of working class Dems. These Dems are voting for Trump over Clinton.

democratic party died decades ago.

Globalists corporations have controlled both parties for a while now.

CNN found that 93% of Trump's likely voters will definitely vote compared to only 80% of Hillary's likely voters

Additionally the majority of polls tend to oversample Democrats, the NBC poll ensured that 50% of its same was democrat or democrat leaning in order to get the large Hillary +7% result

All of this points to Trump probably winning as the polls are so shitty this year

There are legitimately more dems in Illinois, I'd worry more about states like Florida or Nevada

Yep. It's the same thing in PA. Working class PA dems are refusing to vote Clinton. The state is over 80% white, and the polls undersample independents. This isn't NY or California we're talking about. Trump has an advantage over Clinton in both PA and Michigan.

Going by absentee ballot requests coming in from Florida, Iowa, and North Carolina he's going to outperform his poll numbers considerably.

>tfw voting for trump
>my mommy will probably vote for Clinton

maybe I should slash her tires to keep her home that day

i wouldn't assume it but it's defiantly possible, supposedly in PA there were like 700k new registered republicans or something since trump started his campaign but there no way to know until election day.

That's a poll average m80. It includes all the polls with blatantly flawed methodology in favor of the Dems

>Real Kike Politics
>1 post by this ID

Please convince your mom to vote for him. Explain to her how much this election means to you.

>When the votes were actually counted they got their asses kicked in 2014.

Can't believe that was two years ago now. What a glorious day that was.

I really hope we get a GOP supermajority in congress this time around.

what's funny started running the media kept doing stories about how the repulbican party was dead and there'd never be another republican president again.

Popular vote doesn't matter when it comes to the Electoral College.

Hillary can only win by massive election fraud
She can't even get support in Philly
She's spending tons of cash there out of desperation
Her numbers won't go up. Whoever is voting for her made their mind up already
It's basically all up to Trump to close the deal Monday night, to let the undecideds know it's o.k to vote for him

Obviously you've never actually been to Pittsburgh, because that place is pretty much West Virginia levels of pissed with Dems

No Clinton shit anywhere in sight. Not even in Springfield.

Be warned that these are ballots requested, not necessarily returned.

NC right now has...

Rep.
>36% of the ballots requested
>34% of those returned and counted

Dem.
>36% of the ballots requested
>40% of those returned and counted

You should expect about 6-7% of those returned to be spoiled and not counted.

So much this. I've seen absolutely nothing but Trump signs in south hills. Anybody I met commuting downtown is also getting tired of the left.

I'm trying this with my grandfather, he's in his 90s
I'm trying to reason with him and I made it very clear

this election will determine the world I inherit and live in, not you. Please consider making the choice for my future that I want.

i wasn't aware any absentee ballots had come in from anywhere other than florida

do you have a source?

The democrats will never die. They'll lose, but they'll still keep fighting. It sucks, I know.

is it likely that some of those johnson supporters will switch to trump > clinton?

im a pretty deep libertarian and im struggling to vote for leweedman

Uncle Joe Biden will put an end to this Trump PA nonsense

>Dem.
>36% of the ballots requested
>40% of those returned and counted
4% more ballots than were sent out, why is this not surprising?

President Trump will win this.

Praise KEK

I think he means 40% of the 36%