I remember about 10-15 years ago there was a lot of hype about that we'd be in a major oil crisis in the 2010s
Yet, today oil prices are very low and don't look like they're going to rise. Rather, there is a big oil supply glut at the moment.
So, how did all these experts, scientists and economists get this so wrong?
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natural gas fracking and offshore drilling have set it back but only by a few decades at best
Peak oil is a thing as oil is finite we just don't know when it will happen for sure. Tech and methods will improve but eventually there simply won't be anywhere left to drill or frack. Then everyone starves.
Market manipulation, they price floored the oil price recently to mask that we've been in peak oil since the 80s except with advancements in technology it's only been obvious since the 10s. Peak oil doesn't mean "lol no more oil," it means the technology we have isn't sufficient enough to provide the oil needs for society.
The two stocks to watch at the moment are oil and gold, since they're both at a current low ready to skyrocket.
I wish coal and iron ore would skyrocket
This is basically correct--new technology enabled cost-effective production of hard-to-reach oil, and similar tech advances in natural gas fracking has shifted demand to gas and away from oil. Ironically, it was high prices driven by the core geology that peak oil is grounded in that incentivized the development of the advanced technologies that are now pushing back peak oil scenarios.
The recession also depressed demand quite a bit, and probably some other random economic stuff like electric cars, urbanization, efficiency improvements, etc etc.
We got better at finding it and getting it out of the ground and consumption from Western countries fell somewhat offsetting increased consumption from emerging economies.
Do you live in minecraft England?
Peak oil always gets "pushed back." Source rock resources (LTO/ng) are huge all over the world, and wouldn't peak for 40-50 years. Then there are gas hydrate resources, which dwarf everything else we know about, and coupled with gtl processes (basically the opposite of cracking) would meet all of our heavier hydrocarbon demands.
Resource scarcity alarmists deliberately blank-out the human innovation side of the equation, even though that's the reason all of their predictions fail.
Economicsfags, what have been some of the effects of the US lifting its ban on oil exports? I've never seen a coherent explanation.
Fracking and U.S. owned states undercutting Russian competitors.
"Peak oil" is a meme, but it honestly, literally will happen one day. It's not an infinite resource.
There are hundreds of years of known oil and gas reserves available to us. That doesn't even count the unknown and as yet undiscovered reserves. Fracking is a big part of this.
But peak oil isn't about "running out of resources"; it's about the rate of *cheap* oil extraction declining below the point where it's cost-effective. If this happens very quickly, there might not be enough time for companies to switch to underwater gas hydrates etc, so then you'd get economic shocks. Not saying I think it's a good or plausible theory, but that's the best argument for peak oil.
You clearly know some shit.
How can I know this too?
I'm not an economicsfag but I'm somewhat connected to the oil industry. US oil costs about $35/barrel to produce. Price per barrel has been in the mid to upper 40s lately, and so that's been driving some much needed production after the abysmal oil prices we just came off of. (since we can now sell it). Total exports haven't been huge, but they're increasing and it's driving more production, so that's good for the energy industry in general.
A relative of mine works in the oil industry.
Ask yourself why an oil company would ever report the figure on the true amount in a field? They always take the lowest possibly estimate they essentially legally can to make public.
You mongs keep saying that every 20 years or so, and every single time you are proven wrong. You evade the fact that technological advancements are constantly improving the economics for previously uneconomic resources.
It doesn't just happen in oil, either. Malthus predicted massive starvation due to overpopulation, but we got the green revolution instead.
Peak resource doomsayers fundamentally misunderstand economics.
So it's sort of a counter-cyclic force that can keep industry investment/employment etc on an even keel even if domestic demand falls. Cool.
just because your exports have crashed
Actual petroleum engineer here that does reserves for a major oil company. It will naturally vary from company to company--Exxon is pretty conservative for example--but a company's valuation is directly tied to its booked reserves. Plenty of companies try tom maximize that number as far as they are legally able to.
I agree; mining companies are so professionalized and information on stocks and extraction rates are so available that it seems unlikely that we'd ever see super-fast crashes in production before new resources get liberated by technology. Most likely prices will gradually adjust, companies will adjust investment and innovation strategy accordingly, and we'll gradually shift away from hydrocarbons to cheaper distributed energy systems like solar and wind etc.
Yeah it can definitely help pick up slack from falling domestic demand, but you have to keep in mind that if oil prices start dipping below production costs it stops being cost-effective and production shuts down. Bad for our oil industry when the Saudis have production costs of $9 and can keep operations going just fine at $20/barrel.
Sell your fmg and bhp, buy newcrest mining. Seriously.
And we all want coal to die, not skyrocket. Fuck coal.
Not that guy, but peak oil has to happen *EVENTUALLY*, doesn't it? I mean, unless we discover some way to recycle oil or improve efficiency to the point where a gallon of gas could power a car for weeks, then what do we do when peak oil happens? Isn't it better for us to prepare for the worst case scenario instead of procrastinating because "human innovation"?
too be honest you can make synthetic gasoline now
It happened. But when it happens, humans don't just give up.
Find any three people who agree about the rate at which the planet produces new oil and then ask me about it.
Shit, I know a guy at Stanford right now who's trying to get himself killed by enviromentalists with his research into carbon dioxide sequestration via the production of synthetic hydrocarbons.
...
There will likely come a time when we start using less and less hydrocarbons extracted from the earth. But the point I was making was that this will be due to the development of better technologies rather than a doomsday depletion scenario.
demand for oil could die out to such an extent that scarcity will never become a major issue
Didn't peak oil happen in the 70's?
In the early 1900s a well respected professor predicted that there would be no forests left in the US by 1970.
Academics and humans in general are terrible at predicting the future.
All oil used between 1996 and 2009 was greater than all the oil used in the previous century.
We're burning through it but tech is becoming better to unlock unconventional reserves which are quite abundant.
Hopefully we get to hydrogen fusion before the end.
That graph needs updating m9. Current us oil output is around 8.5mmbbl/day
Peak US production because we've been slowly killing the industry domesticly with EPA regs, refusal to grant permits, and global prices below what US produced oil would cost.
Yes; as several people here have mentioned, it's more about the economics and technology than geology. It's entirely plausible that we'll see a gradual, natural shift away from from hydrocarbons and towards other energy sources as price signals work their way through the economy and shift companies' investment and research behavior.
Oh ok. Thanks.
previously fracking had to follow the same safety standards for clean water as everything else. Now they have an exception.
en.wikipedia.org
The population bomb and it's somehow not shot in back of head author and their doomsday predictions are probably responsible for most of what Cred Forums thinks is wrong in the world today.
>implying it didn't
open quotas are based on stated reserves
it's one of the reasons I'm long oil
*opec quotas
Shale gas and the canadian oil-sands is my understanding of why peak oil didn't happen.
Also; massive reserves have recently been discovered in Kenya (being run by an Australian company). SO yeah; we bought ourselves some time.
this is possible, but of course it's not a guarantee. Just like with the economy - sometimes you find yourself in a recession rather than further growth, and suddenly the optimism and generosity vanished.
The sand kikes for decades had been artificially inflating oil prices. Well we innovated around them and came up with better ways to extract oil (we are actually net energy independent now). The sand kikes decided to crash our oil industry (which has a higher cost to extract (using our innovations) than there old fashioned methods (just have lots of oil) so they crashed the market to try and kill off some of our suppliers (also al gore went to them and begged them to do it to kill Russia economy after the crymeariver shit) but I don't give a fuck, I like lower oil prices.
The whole "were running out of oil" was global warming 0.6 beta "peak oil" crisis the kikes always want to reduce our standard of living, it gives them some sort of masochistic pleasure.
I remember being a kid in the 90's seeing documentary after documentary scaremongering about the collapse of society after oil ran out.
It did happened already...
Oil production is only up again due to new techniques (Shale, fracking) and minor stabilisation in the middle east (enough to get the oil out - ME isn't some wonder oil location, it just wasn't exploited until much later...)
The thing all of these doomsday peddlers have in common is this basic argument: "You are all too stupid to manage this yourselves. You should leave it to ivory tower academics like myself that don't know shit about how things work in reality, but we are still somehow the most qualified to control the economy."
I'm not exaggerating. Behind every single one of these resource doomsday scenarios is an argument for a power grab.
Oil is abiotic.
one and done.
No shit. I've even heard Ehrlich defend what he wrote even now that it's proven to be so utterly fucking wrong.
It was almost worth sacrificing my degree to punch him in his smug mouth.
because the entire concept was pushed by ideological greenfags who don't actually understand the energy market or economics
literally no expert thinks peak oil is going to happen anymore at any time in the future
projections from major energy companies and organizations like IEA and EIA show oil demand peaking sometime around 2030-2040
oil is already declining as a % of total primary energy production
right now a major shift is happening toward natural gas and renewables which is rapidly phasing out coal and will begin to phase out oil as well within a few decades
the reason it was so high over the past decade and a half is that demand growth was consistently higher than projected and investments in increased production never quite caught up with demand
it wasn't until the shale oil boom in US plus record high production both in KSA and Russia (and some other countries) combined with slower demand growth in China plus some other factors like increasing efficiency that it dropped
also US shale revolution is already spreading to some other countries like Argentina and China and many others which will basically create a price ceiling for oil because those projects come online in a short time frame and will respond quickly to price and reduce market volatility
peak oil supply is never going to happen and oil will never go above $100/bbl unless there is a major geopolitical shock like destabilization of KSA
Some natural gas might be--which would explain the huge methane hydrate deposits we see that seemingly have no source rock--but there is zero evidence of abiotic crude oil.
Almost every oil reservoir we've found has corresponding source rocks that are heavy in deep marine organic material, and this model works pretty well for predicting where oil will be in exploration. It doesn't mean it's impossible, but there's certainly no "conspiracy" behind it.
what do you think about timing oil recovery without an opec freeze and off shore drilling in general?
I remember hearing that Saudi Arabia was going to reach peak oil in 2030, but now I have no idea where I heard that. I have no source.