If the election was TODAY this would be the electoral map

If the election was TODAY this would be the electoral map.

Trump is most likely going to win.
He can still switch New Hampshire and Nevada.

upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/09/26/UPICVoter-state-polls-Donald-Trump-ahead-of-Hillary-Clinton-in-Electoral-College/3941474908310/

Other urls found in this thread:

realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/az/arizona_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-6087.html
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/co/colorado_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5974.html
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5963.html
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nv/nevada_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-6004.html
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/oh/ohio_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5970.html
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-6008.html
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mn/minnesota_trump_vs_clinton-5591.html
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reconquista_(Mexico)
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Raza
twitter.com/SFWRedditImages

theres still too much shilling going on at both sides since the debate. we only have a few new polls, some show trump gaining and another shows clinton gaining. have to wait another week before we know the real impact.

PA here.

Any media claim that we're a battleground state is a joke. I live in the Philly metro area and see Trump signs ten times as often as Clinton ones. Hell, I still see more Bernie signs than Clinton ones.

It's the same all over the state, there's Pittsburgh and a few small Skype pockets, but the Rust Belt is with Trump.

Wrong. Nevada is likely Trump, but neither CO, PA nor VA are confirmed just yet (although they probably will be this time next month).

>Arizona
>Blue

>AZ going blue for fucking Hillary

I don't buy it. We aren't that far gone yet

You are right, i apologize.

But there was a poll from yesterday with Trump +4 in VA

Trump wins Arizona and Nevada

>my anecdotal experience means that the milliions of people who live in my state will vote the way I think they will vote
call him a kike, call him a faggot, call him whatever you want, Nate Silver predicted every state correctly for 2012 and he says PA is blue right now. Now that may change but I trust his judgement based on actual polls and facts more than yours.

This map is also retarded because you have him losing arizona where he has a pretty solid lead and have him winning Virginia where he's down 77-23 in the polls

He's winning Arizona you stupid macaroon

He doesnt win Nevada yet.

>nevada
>arizona
>blue

>Pennsylvania
>red

RI here. Trump signs everywhere across this state. There are some Hillary signs and whatnot in the richer parts of Providence, but everywhere else wants to MAGA. RI will go red this year, screencap this post.

B-but muh Arizona Republic!

This election will work out well, it will provide me a good map of cuck states vs non cuck states so I can decide where I want my home.

Leaning towards
>MT
>WY
>ND
>SD
>UT
Its a shame the north east and north west are fucking 100% lost

That one is an outlier, Trump still has work to do in both PA and VA, unless he's going for a win without the two.

Trump is 48.3 to Hillary`s 47.0 in Pennsylvania.

His numbers have risen sharply, it is safe to say it is going to go for Trump.

are you guys sure that trump will win florida or pennsylvania

The Dems have lost the white middle class former industrial workers in PA. Hillary got on the anti-outsourcing and anti-TPP bandwagon way too late.

...

For both Florida and Pennsylvania he has a chance of 60%.

For winning at least one of them it is around 97% imo

>Florida

Almost definitively, barring any massive fuck-up from him.

>Pennsylvania

Pretty uncertain, but more than possible, most polls show them within margin of error.

>arizona
>blue

New Hampshire is not yet for Trump by less than one point and he is 10 points behind in Maine. NH is likely.

Proud PA Trump voter here

So everyone needs to count Illinois as a maybe red. Only six points up for Clinton recently and we know how they poll

PA is the official state of cheating democrats. I think Hillary will get PA in the end, but lose the election.

I thought state that was Illinois

what happens again if neither candidate hits 270?

One of them must hit 270, what can happen is them both hitting it.

Which would mean, the congress gets to choose i believe.

Extremely unlikely.

>If the election was TODAY this would be the electoral map.
>User-Generated Map
kek

How did Nate Silver''s primary predictions go again?

Were swing states this close in 2012? Romney also shot himself in the foot, his 47% comment really pissed off working class voters.

>Florida
>blue

How to spot a Hill Shill in one easy step.

Trump is ahead in VA, PA, FL strongly.

Trump is less than one point away from winning NV and NH.

Hillary will not make it in Florida, shill.

Im not sure about nevada.

Trump will need some luck with the weather to turn PA red.

va is red

Why are different states worth different amount of points? Is it a population thing?

Yes.

I'm at work today and overhear people discussing the debate. This literally never happens - you just don't discuss politics at work. every one of them was going on and on about Hilary's greatness and how awful a human being Trump is. I was getting depressed and then I realized....I'm in Connecticut! Thank god for the rest of the country.

Idiots are always louder than smart people. I'm in Philly too and if you actually talk to educated people, they're for Hillary.

>signs everywhere
Just like white trash with tattoos.

These electoral maps where Trump has ~290-300 electoral votes are utterly retarded. You're all high.

You know deep down he is going to lose. The media won't let anything else happen.

>Arizona
>Blue
Opinion discarded.
Dude, I mean like that's totally proof he's gonna win, right? 100% undeniable proof.

This is actually one of the most plausible scenarios.

Although I think he could pull off an upset by losing Florida but grabbing Michigan+Wisconsin (because they'll likely both flip if one does)

...

You mean the people who have largely benefitted under the status quo are for maintaining the status quo?

This is the worst map I've seen lol

Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michegan will go red. The jobs are gone and the formermost has a bunch of somalians causing problems for them now. I'd even go so far to argue that Illinois will, barely, swing red as well.

>Nate Silver

Top lel

>educated people
>falsely equating American education with intelligence or opinion value

Smart people don't live or work in Philadelphia anymore, you stupid nigger.

he's 3.8 points behind in Maine

No. Wrong again. It goes to the house of representatives and they chose the president.

How many electoral votes did nevada have 8-6?

Kind of based on population, though some states have more per population than others. It's a really stupid system if you ask me

that blue upper midwest....tainted by foolish foreigner Canadian influence.

that and a high number of ethnic Swedes. its in their dna

I live in WA.

Seattle is absolutely retardedly blue.

But the rest of the state is pretty Red man, they just skew us hard.

So what states does Trump NEED to flip in order to win?

>But the rest of the state is pretty Red man, they just skew us hard.
Yep and that is a problem, Look at i594.

Arizona will go red. So will Nevada.

Virginia will stay blue.

Other than that, sensible map. Trump has a 90% chance of winning in my estimation.

>Pennsylvania
>Ohio
red? why?

>what can happen is them both hitting it.
Actually, there are just enough points where it can result in 269/269 tie. There are a total of 538 electoral votes. If it's a tie, it goes to the House of Representatives, which is Republican majority, so Trump wins.

This is actually significant, in that it's one more point Trump doesn't have to get. Who knows? There are a few ways it could result in a tie.

Going by RealClear I have AZ CO FL and NV for Trump

Which will eek out a Trump win if Shilter picks up Michigan Pennsylvania and NoVA controlled Virgina which is now GovermentWorkerstan

He won't win CO

This is how trump will lose this election

He needs Ohio, Florida, Colorado.

Pennsylvania is huge and feasible.

Michigan is huge and possible.

Virginia is big and unlikely.

Not an unreasonable prediction, but ME district 2 is going red.

AZ is not blue and will never go blue.

Non-Americans need to stop talking about American politics because they have no fucking clue about how things work here.

Maine CD 2 is going Trump

realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/az/arizona_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-6087.html
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/co/colorado_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5974.html
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5963.html
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nv/nevada_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-6004.html
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/oh/ohio_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5970.html

Michigan is "on the table" given Trump's positions. State is made up of Irish Germans and White Southerners for it's whiteis.

realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-6008.html

Minnesota surprising is also on the table for different reasons. The election of two other "celebrities" Jesse The Body Ventura and Al Franken and Trump's trade positions.

Also possible anti-Somalian rapefuggee sentiment.

AZ isn't going blue, I don't care what the Republic says

Because he's been ahead in Ohio for a fucking month?

Trump absolutely will not lose Nevada either

Trump won the debate
Trump did his job, did it well and is going to win the election.

He dominated the first 40 minutes and held his ground for the rest, that being said, he did hold
back on things he definitely could have hit her with. But after a year of being called a maniac literallyhitler sexist misogynist who will nuke everyone that was the smartest thing he could do. He proved he had restraint, he didn't fall for the bait.

Hillary looked downright creepy to anyone who isn't a blue haired SJW or a wetback, and her crazy smiling and smirking did her no favours with normal people. She tried to use a bootleg version of Trump's way of labeling people (think lyin Ted) with her whole trumped up trickle down shit and she came off as out of touch.

Now for what matters, American politics is about fighting over a percentage of people who probably just tuned into this as their first impression of both candidates besides a clip here or there on normiebook. And what they saw was trump actually being presidential. He stood there and had a debate instead of gassing every beaner/Muslim in the room and depending on where they live he talked about getting them a decent job.

Hillary's attacks were shit and everyone knows it, nobody gives a fuck about tax returns or Rosie O'Donnell.

Trump is Obama '08 running on change. And he will win, because it's a lot easier to motivate people to change something than to grudging try to protect the status quo. We have all the excitement on our side just look at the post debate polls, nobody is excited for Hillary she is just the not trump candidate, and as much as people hate her im willing to bet a whole lot of people vote 3rd party out of spite.

TLDR trump will win, and you better be ready shills

>Arizona blue

>realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-6008.html

Looks like I spoke too soon or even misspoike vis-a-vis Michigan. New poll has Shilter +5 against God Emperor

Minnesota most recent polling had a tie:

realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mn/minnesota_trump_vs_clinton-5591.html

>Trump absolutely will not lose Nevada either
What is the argument for this? Don't they have a lot of butthurt spics like California?

>(((not realizing there's been a business model formed around predicting elections)))

Trump already has Nevada

>not winning AZ
>winning PA

This is fucking stupid

Most legal spics agree about immigration and will vote for Trump

its the rcp the only reason its blue is because of 1 outlier that has shillary up by 5, every other poll has him ahead or tied or shillary up by 1

It's 90% Mexican there. The only whites and blacks I've ever seen in AZ where tourists. And it's to close to the loony ultra left progressives in Commie-fornia.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reconquista_(Mexico)
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Raza

>90% mexican in arizona

the only mexicans here are the ones in mexican restaurants and janitors. the majority is very old white people.

Nope.

He is pretty much winning now, He is ahead in IA, NC, NV, AZ, GA and OH and is tied in FL and OH. He would probably win those states as well due to turnout. That gives him the election.
He could potentially flip PA, MI, WI and NH and maybe even ME and MN.
OR, NM and VA are possible but these states are optimistic for Trump

you're fucking retarded

well, i know where im focusing my meme magic

>>the majority is very old white people.
In the hills on the outskirts of Phoenix. Or if you consider half-breeds to be white.

Could he lose one of OH or FL and still win?

>PA is red
>VA is red

When the fuck did this happen?

I want to believe user, but signs don't mean shit.

I wish you nothing but the best, brother.

The fire rises!

if he managed to boost his support in the Rustbelt then yes, maybe with FL.
IF he loses OH he would most likely lose the rest of the Rustbelt and therefore probably not.
I doubt he will lose in OH or FL though, he has a strong lead in OH and most polls show him ahead in FL, the rcp is just fucked up because of a monmouth outlier that has Clinton up by 5.
Trump won the early vote in FL btw, the first republican to do so, thats a good sign.

Nah, Illinois will never go red. Chicago is too populated and cook county too full of democrats. Not even the massive murder spree going on could deter them from voting blue.

These are, right? Hillary is totally going to win and it's not even going to be close. You guys are sooo delusional it's pathetic. I remember when you all had these Romney predictions saying that he was going to win too. Well how did that turn out for you?

Deal with it. Trump is going to lose

what poll are you reading where trump is up in va and pa?

Latest poll was from Morning call with Clinton's lead halved to +4 from +8. This was predebate.

>Romney is the same as Trump

When he talks about immigration which states do you think he's specificly talking about?

He's talking about California, Arizona, and Texas...

I stopped seeing blacks and whites at the airport. I'm literally the only non-mixed race white person there within five miles. They breed like f*cking rabbits.

>smart people's votes count more than the idiots'

delusion is strong amerifat

Romney's biggest mistake was his plans to cut funding to PBS which would in effect put Sesame Street off the air. Which also ruined his appeal to female voters who had kids.

Plus he was a Mormon. Mormons = the Anti-Christ. He lost the vote from Christians and Theists alike.

yall stupid
pic related is the real answer

Everyone I know voting for Hillary doesn't have a sticker/sign. I've seen one "I'm with Her" sticker on someone's SUV. I've seen several handmade signs in front of people's houses, a construction firm with huge ads about hillary being a crook and voting for trump/pence, and several vehicles with trump bumper stickers.

I'm in Maryland there is a 99% chance that we are going blue.. So, what I'm saying is that anecdotes aren't remotely scientific and Trump voters are just more enthusiastic for him. It would be silly to think you're not going to have the same voters who turn out every year, suddenly stop voting party lines.

> I've seen several handmade...

*several handmade Trump signs

fuck off shill

Texas blue hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

The fact that him and Grandma Nixon are even considered as viable potential presidents just shows how screwed the republican party is.

The only people I see voting for Trump are birthers still looking for Obama's birth records. Longtime republicans have stopped voting republican after the Bush era. It's simply and utterly screwed... fake polls and charts isn't going to fix this.

I want to believe

>NY will never get on the Trump train
Why's it gotta be this way? These maps are giving me a boner, though.