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Didn't Romney surge in the polls after the 1st debate in 2012?

Clinton will win Kansas, while Trump wins Vermont.

Well trump is surging in every state poll

Yep. Swung it 4 points to take a lead.

Trump getting Virginia back is huge.

Only 2% will actually end up voting third party, so with the undecided that's a lot to go around.



The white race has to decline so that Israel gets shitstomped by the Arabs. Once that happens and the Jews get off our fucking backs, we'll rise again.

It sucks at the moment. Just do your best to enjoy the decline.


>Margins of error
>% of those polled on landlines
>Average citizen not immediately hanging up on anyone that remotely resembles a telemarketer/pollster

He's falling fast on Nate's website. Say hello to Madam President, America.

(((Real))) (((clear))) (((politics)))

Trump failed worse than Obama did


Hmm really makes me think ctr.

Ctr did you know someone told us this is exactly how the polls would go?

Did you know someone told us how the MSM would tell us Hillary won, while the internet would say Trump won?

Did you know you've been ousted time and time again, and yet here you retards are thinking you can do anything.

What is the point, when you know damn well you will get no where with us.

None of us will ever vote for a criminal, and none of us will ever worship moloch.

PICS for fun

Not true at all CTR shill, if I picked up the phone and heard it was a state poll I would want to be a part of the poll.

Honestly, if trump is within 5 points hes doing ok.

Remember brexit? The last poll showed remain with a + 10 advantage!

>increasingly nervous man for the 9th time

Not sure why you're not celebrating
Sounds like after the debate your country is even more polarized
Ripe for civil war

The total disconnect between the National and state-by-state polls is the really telling thing.

Don't be surprised if we start getting a lot more Registered Voter instead of Likely Voter polls.

Why are you calling me a CTR shill when my argument benefits Trump's "actual" favor towards the population? Are you guys retarded?

The only bad thing is trumps rape hearing. Could be bad

>Trump's rape hearing
literally what
If they had anything credible on him at all remotely that damaging they would have the MSM headlining it 24/7
And if they fired the first shot on that topic he has a lot more skeletons to pull out of Bill's closet.

You guys do realize that every time Trump starts winning in the polls, they just change the way the polls work and how they count the numbers, right?

There is as much reason to trust the polls as there is to trust Politifact.

>implying Amerifats leave their homes to complain instead of just idly calling blacks 'niggers'

This isn't the 1800s, user. We're all sedated.



Giving women the right to vote was a mistake

Yeah I'm not voting this year. Fuck it. Trump turned out to be a moron. You should have supported rubio. Fuck you all. Bye.

> Washington STATE

Wow, so Trump is crushing expectations

Reuters over-samples democrats. You can even check the PDF they release with the poll information to confirm this.

Compared with the last PPP poll done, Trump is closing the gap. Their last one had Clinton +5, now it's +4.

More women vote than men though so that's fairly accurate polling.

Oh shit, Hilldawg riding cowgirl
What happened? Did she turn water into wine AGAIN?!?!

Hello CTR

FUCK YEAH MAINE. I've been calling CD2 as a literal Trump electoral vote for a while now. Nobody here likes Hillary, except my grandmother for some reason. She'll die soon

Nice factual source. Good to see unbiased news here that isn't just to rev up the circlejerk machine

Just looked it up and it seems women vote roughly 6.5% more than men so I guess that makes sense. I stand by what I said though

The salt and denial fuels me.

No it didn't, only the populus shitfest poll did, many of the online polls got it pretty accurate, inside the MoE


What will you do when the circle jerk machine blows its load down your throat on November 8th? Judging by the shilling I'd say you'd gargle it.

>another day of jewish lies

who the fuck is johnson? and why the fuck does it keep running with 4%?

>clinton +4, 9% vote not accounted for
>clinton +4, 6% vote not accounted for
>clinton +4, 11% vote not accounted for
>clinton +6, 18% vote note accounted for
either a large group of people seem embarrassed to say who they are voting for, or they are throwing out a fuck ton of votes

It's so damaging, he doesnt even have to show up for it.

He's the guy whose VP admires Merkel.

You do realize that "the source" (Brietbart), certainly is right-wing.

However, the story they tell is based on what an expert is saying. Breitbart didn't make it up.

And do you really think the Liberal media would have an expert on who isn't going to agree with their little narrative?

>washington state
>38% for trump

I didn't realize it was that fucking close. I guess my vote will matter to an extent.

> thinking you can get away with lying on the internet
> current year

Go back to teaching English and fawning over prostitutes who want nothing to do with you.

Trumps winning Texas by the same margin, so it really doesnt matter

Wow, it's never been this close in washington. I guess my vote for trump might actually matter. Thanks for this. I wasnt going to vote, but now I will.

That is what October is for.

>Toss Up
what the bitch

You're right of course. If you can't be drafted you shouldn't be able to vote. And no that doesn't mean women should be drafted, that's retarded, it should be the other solution. But since that'll never happen make them be drafted just to show how ridiculous "equality" is.
>40% "very concerned" about terror happening in their neighborhood
>43% support ban on Muslims
Come home, white man

>Illinois not even close to safe anymore
Gonna have to step up on the necromancy, chicago.

Yep, the difference is Obama actually had a lead before he killed that surge.

Trump's been consistently behind even Romney levels this entire campaign except for right around the RNC.

>Come home, white man
Bitch I'm a bigger Trump supporter than you'll ever be.

But damn I thought Minnesota was the blue capital of the country. If you're right though they're voting between a massive influx of shitskins and no more at all. Maybe they've learned their lesson.

>Trump's been consistently behind even Romney levels this entire campaign
When was Romney winning Ohio again?
When was Romney contesting Rhode Island and Minnesota?
When was Romney even close to flipping Pennsylvania?

Already mailed my ballot for Trump (on Holiday) but damn... I'm starting to get worried. I don't think he has a shot. I wish I'd voted Gary, at least I wouldn't be helping the Cuckservatives in the Republican Party.

>+4 shekels

perhaps but only by a few points, 60-40 is way too high. Cant blame them though, most of the people they will be ringing up will be women.


What motivated people to vote for Romney in the first place? What was his niche? I mean, the guy was just a boring cookie-cutter politician.

I voted for Ron Paul in 2012 and just sat out the general because I lost interest.

muh somalis

>(on Holiday)
gtfo you lying faggot, no american says that

When you adjust for oversampling, this is a rough idea of what the election will go based off current and accurate polling.

And by oversampling I mean learning about how much of the population leans left or right, and the polls methodology. Just using an example, Texas could lean right +10 but instead of accurately sampling Republicans they instead do the exact opposite and oversample Democrats to give the illusion that Trump is only winning by a couple of points. Likewise, you have to factor in how liberal states lean and how the polls oversample or undersample political groups in correlation.

Trump should win when you adjust for all that, based off recent polls.

how can anyone take him seriously


Holy shit. The most out there of these is Colorado.

Don't see how he's behind nationally yet doing so well in all the state polls though.

>When you adjust for oversampling
That's literally the current map going by the polls, except for Florida being +0.5 Clinton (and we know that's bullshit because early voting shows her getting blown the fuck out)
Trump is already winning, I can't imagine what the real results are going to be without poll manipulation and Trump's YUGE advantage in likely turnout.


Yes, but Romney beat Obama like a red headed stepchild.

Trump had his lunch money taken on national television, and it appears that Clinton is getting a bounce that officially ends Trump's march to the lead. The fact that he's hanging on in swing states at all is critical.

Trump's leading in Colorado, albeit barely right now. He's hitting the state hard in upcoming days and is planning on spending a lot of money on TV ads, something Hillary has already been doing in the state. Hillary's already retreated from some of the major 'swing states' that aren't really going to swing blue anytime soon for someone like Hillary, like NC.

Objectively wrong. Obama looked and acted like a drugged out zombie in the first debate, to the point that it was so memorable that I can still recall his performance off the top of my head. You must not have been following the election back then.

>Don't see how he's behind nationally yet doing so well in all the state polls though.
Because the Dems didn't expect to have to rig polls in fucking Illinois and Minnesota.

HAHAHAHA cry bitches

Obama was black, he was able to secure 100% of the black vote in some states or damn near close. He got 100% of the female black vote in my state, North Carolina in '08 just to use as a reference. It also helps that most black people probably didn't watch the debates. Hillary doesn't have this advantage, because most of the far-left that would've voted solely based off trivial things like gender or race were already diehard Berncucks and have seen her corruption.

Someone please tell me while these state polls are flawed and Queen Hillary (YASSSS) will still win.

She absolutely DESTROYED Trump in the debate. She should be leading in every swing state but she isn't. Do the debate numbers just take a few days to materialize? Between this and expected Democrat turnout taking a nosedive, I'm getting very scared. I woke up last night literally shaking because I had a dream we actually elected Orange Hitler. It's not going to happen, right...?

Hillary's leading by +50 points RIGHT now!!! Check CNN!!!!

literally the only reason people voted for him was he wasnt obama

Not sure what CTR attempts to accomplish with this.

Showing that Trump is losing by narrow margins in these polls still encourages Trump supporters to vote for Trump.

Will be interesting to see what this group does.

Trump is going to be doing innocent of all his crimes and to have paid all of his taxes.

Then he will surge.

>trump won the debate guys

It's no coincidence that now his campaign has come out and said his new strategy is "practice practice practice", trump bombed that last debate hard.

When will hillary be doing innocent of all her crime? Also trump all his crimes be doing innocent why? Trump have no crime to be doing innocent.

dear god...if Drumpf bombed the debates this hard and he's still leading or tied in important swing states...

no...I can't think about's too much to bear...Queen Hillary will surely find a way to stump the Drumpf...

He """lost""" the debate
He went up in the polls after """losing"""
He's practicing because next time he's going for the kill.

the major parties do this all the time, they find a 3rd party that's close in belief to their opponents and fund them to divide the vote.
The dems tried this with Johnson, but realized that he was taking more support from Hillary and he stopped getting media coverage almost instantly, it was fucking hilarious.

>he's still leading or tied in important swing states
The post-debate polls aren't all out yet. Next week you'll see his numbers go down.

For what it's worth, I still think he's going to eventually win, but I'd put money on his numbers going down as a result of his poor debate performance.

much has changed since the reagan landslide

>NJ falling to only leans Clinton

I swear to God if New Jersey actually goes red I will dress up as Hatsune Miku and run out into the street singing Shadilay and post it here.

Every poll that's come out and doesn't oversample Democrats by +10 points has Trump making gains.
Do you actually think the media's newest "TRUMP IS A BIG MEANIE" fiasco is going to stick this time, when it's based on a fucking fat chick who's probably an accessory to murder?


I'll hold you to that.

>Trump was +3 before the debate
>Now he's -3 after the debate

After twelve GOP debates, are we finally witnessing the stumping?

I'd pay good money to see this.

The graph you posted doesn't support your first statement and in fact shows him increasing after the debate to his highest level of support ever.
You're not very good at this shilling thing.

Trump is winning in the state polls

>Somalis, Black Lives Matter, and Mark Dayton
>Fucking shit up so bad MN is in play

Damn, I bet Dinky town & Uptown is probably losing their shit right now...

>Nate Silver

Oy vey!Trump is israel's hero!Oy vey we cant let crooked hillary win

Fucking Cascadia needs to wake up. Too much pumpkin spiced bitchery, I am changing people but clearly not fast enough.

>trump practicing means hes losing
>trump not practicing means hes a idiot


>Clinton up by 4%
>50% democrats and 30% republicans polled

t. every poll showing Clinton ahead after the debate

>WA: +6 C