Be objective for one fucking moment and tell me, does Hillary have a chance to win?

Your objectivity is fucked. Clinton has been ahead this entire race, though the polls are becoming more even recently

It's about 50/50 at this point. Trump's biggest strength is the enthusiasm of his supporters. Clinton's biggest strength is the electoral map being biased and the media.

>you find them oversampling registered Democrats,

There are more registered Democrats than they are Republicans.

Funny enough this is the same excuse that Unskewed polls used in 2012.

She has a lot of dirt on a lot of people. Hard to tell.

CTR here right on schedule, even with their manufactured nimble america bullshit

*were becoming more even

They're reverting in the other direction after the debate. I mean, relatively speaking he has narrowed down from his laughable double digit deficit, but it's not a close race at the moment.

If Trump can't pull a rabbit out of his hat and crush the next debate, it's over. Hillary will shoot to a 90% favorite if she wins 2 debates in a row.

>manufactured

Thank you for staying Nimble.

I think this is similar to Andrew Jackson, and Hillary doesn't cut it. Just look at her face, something is off.. you know exactly what she is all about without her even having to open her lesion-infested mouth.

HRC can't possibly win unless there is massive election fraud.. like dead people voting and ballot boxes fucked with, can any body imagine hillary clinton or donald trump being inaugurated though? it's unbelievable.

step outside the echo chamber for a second

That's exactly what they said about Brexit, and look what happened.

Don't worry Trump will win 100%. I'm so confident I'm not even going to bother showing up and waiting in line.

>She is a 3 to 1 favorite to win the election right now.

>Presenting odds as facts

Nigga please

Kerry won every single debate handily and lost the election. Just think about that for a second.

>HRC can't possibly win unless there is massive election fraud.. like dead people voting and ballot boxes fucked with, can any body imagine hillary clinton or donald trump being inaugurated though? it's unbelievable.

Well at least you have your excuses all ready to go after Hillary's inevitable victory.

There's already proof of voter fraud. It's really sickening to be honest, the Democratic party has zero integrity.

>That's exactly what they said about Brexit, and look what happened.

No, it isn't. Brexit went back and forth. It was effectively neck and neck the entire time. The problem is that one of the late outliers was used as an example of what the final result would be but it wasn't indicative of the overall closeness of the referendum.

You can't forever go "Brexit brexit brexit" like it permanently invalidates all polling that you don't like. There's a world of difference between the Clinton vs Trump polling and Brexit polling.

It's objectively still up in the air

Thank you for correcting the record

I won't really care who wins(they are both a joke, including gary johnson), those who control the money supply will ultimately decide your fate, and not even donald trump can alter that reality, in fact they may throw him in as the scape goat.

>implying I was stating that odds are "facts"

Facts don't exist, nigga. No such thing. Still, the odds presented by betting markets and poll analysts are notoriously far more reliable than "Cred Forums's gut" which has an accuracy rate of about 5%.

>Kerry won every single debate handily and lost the election.

Those are some hot opinions you have there friend.

Election will be rigged for sure, there's no way they will let Trump win. If she's rigged the primaries and the debates and the media is on her side no way will they let Trump take the reins. Trump will probably be assassinated if he does end up winning.

Hey dumbfucks, There is more Democrats than Republicans but only by 3-8%, not 15-23% which is the oversampling rate for Democrats on most of these shit polls, while under sampling Independents which is a bigger voting block than both parties.

There are 2 things that should be red flags.
Trump is intensely disliked and feared by minorities.
Obama's approval rating is unexpectedly quite high.

Now while he may have many more enthusiastic voters and supporters, especially compared to Hillary, a vote is just 1 vote on election day. Enthusiasm can only get you so far.

And the "silent majority" that people are counting on could get countered by a large fearful minority turnout, which I think will be the ultimate factor in his defeat.

Kerry was also never outpolling Bush regardless of his wins, while Clinton is outpolling Trump with her (1) win so far

Thank you for staying Nimble.

Nope it wasn't, look at the polls, they all said Brexit was not going to pass, and then bam, it did.

her odds of winning the actual vote are tiny but her odds of rigging it to win are like 90%

Statistically speaking if Trump wins he would be the first person ever in the history of democracy to ever flip a race this close to the election.
If you honestly think a retard that randomly mentions his 10 year old son is good at computers in a debate about cyber security is going to flip a race for the first time ever in the history of the world than you're genuinely retarded.

No opinions, look it up yourself. Kerry won every single debate, and then lost the election.

>i-its different because brexit polls were neck and neck!
>t-trumps n-not neck and neck with clinton!!

>implying Trump isn't the type of big government faggot who is 100% ready to play ball

Guy is a liberal jewish cocksmoking machine. Dumb fucks on Cred Forums were just entranced by his platitudes so they bought into his bullshit. I remember a time before Trump where Cred Forums would be smarter than to throw their lot in with someone like Trump, but endless shilling swayed the retards on here and there you go.

>Brexit went back and forth.
>It was effectively neck and neck the entire time.
LIke this election?

I don't get the question. Of course Clinton "has a chance" to win, and it is hard to argue that she isn't more likely at this point in time. She is even or slightly up in the polls, and even if she was down, both Trump and Clinton can fuck it up before election day. It is a much closer race than it seemed to be in august, but we are at the tail end of a Trump surge and Clinton has historically been leading by a wider margin.

Think about it, if you had to bet big money on who would win, would you really choose Trump at this point in time?

The scared minorities are here illegally thus not eligible to vote unless "someone" corrects the record.

How much of a bitch fit will Hillary throw if Trump wins? Assassination? Incite the nogs to riot in all cities? Kind of want to see it desu

I assume the media will forget about Hillary and just demonize Trump for 4 years until they can put the new puppet in power.

When you see those electoral maps, realize that the influence is based on population not size. California and New York have more people than Nebraska, Montana, Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, North Dakota, and South Dakota combined.

I'm not just talking about illegal hispanics. I'm talking about most minorities in general.

Mitt was a fuck up and gave up, but against any Clinton would have won. Barack Obama has the same force of personality as Trump. Look to Brexit to see the power of a determined voting block against a less energetic one.

Further, third parties will siphon votes away mostly from Clinton. Gary Johnson has a strong pull for fiscal conservative / socially liberal people.

Trump will absolutely dominate this election. Its not too late to join the winning side, even if you get paid to post these things.

...

They already adjust for shit like this in poll analysis you fucking retard.

>does Hillary have a chance to win?

Without outright cheating, next to none.

She is a war criminal headed for gallows

lmao I think I'd rather trust pollsters that have bachelors, masters, and phd's in statistics than some random Cred Forumsltard

source?

>but right after he wipes the floor with hillary during the debates

Yeah, that 1st debate was a total slaughter huh?

Yes because she's rigging the vote. Who knows how many states will play ball, though? Maybe not enough.

The US needs to get rid of e-voting NOW.

to be honest, I think there are more "silent" clinton supporters. Trump supporters are extremely vocal. Trump wins in online polls, he has the biggest crowds. While the vast majority of people don't care a lot about politics and just don't want a bombastic reality TV star as president.

there is also big 3rd party support this time, which will take away from Clinton in most states, but not as much in battleground states where people want their vote to count.

The collective mental illness in America right now echoes the conditions in 1930's Europe. How you could have two of the most inept people running for president is a sad indictment on a once great nation that's lost its way and lost its fragile little mind.
Cred Forums wants a Trump presidency for the lulz but the ramifications are too scary for the national interests and the international accord.
It's crazy, you're all sucking down the cool aid like mad.

Trump got slammed with 15 exclusive questions while hillary skated away with 2

Imagine if the moderator had been fair and balanced

>they all said Brexit was not going to pass

No, they didn't. Don't just pull shit out of your ass.

>Trump and Clinton are neck and neck

In what fucking universe? Trump has barely edged over Clinton exactly once this whole election and he has otherwise enjoyed massive dips in the popular vote. He has NEVER been anywhere close to winning the electoral college EXCEPT right before the debates happened. And as soon as they happened, Clinton has no jumped back into 300+ range because she is now favored in NV, FL, and is tied in NC.

Clinton has been heavily favored for the entire duration of this election. Trump slowly gains ground when people forget how retarded he is, then he makes a big appearance(like a debate) and plummets all over again. That has been the trend this whole election.

it's never gone back and forth between one side winning and one side losing, like brexit

it's gone back and forth from clinton winning massively, to clinton narrowly winning

>Cred Forums wants a Trump presidency for the lulz

No, we want our slavery to end

Hillary is the Mitt this cycle

Look at the Brexit polls yourself. They all said it wasn't going to pass until the very end.

She doesn't.

Trump is ahead in all the swing states and he leads in the latest LA Times poll, which is the only unbiased presidential poll in the country.

>it's never gone back and forth between one side winning and one side losing
Yes it has you dumbass; twice.

>inb4 but Trump was barely in the lead
The same is true for the leave camp. They lead the polls for a brief stretch of time and then it flipped back to remain winning.

She has 30 years of political experience and a failed run under her wing. She's clearly got the advantage, and her being a machiavellian politician is exactly why we hate her.

Doesn't matter how well she does in the debates, as long as Trump doesn't fuck up and keeps being an inspiration for the Trump MOVEMENT.

Keep believing the media narrative you dumb cuck.

>Trump is ahead in all the swing states

no he isn't, as of right now Clinton is ahead in: NM, Nevada, New Hampshire, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Florida

>which is the only unbiased presidential poll in the country.

because it's the only one that agrees with you?

Where are the proofs. Ctr doxxed. No NA doxxing. It's all made up.

No they don't. Look at the CNN debate poll, it literally sampled twice as many Democrats as Republicans.

Can someone tell me like the idiot I am how it's possible for illegals and dead to vote? Like, how is it possible and not caught?

When she steals the election what do we do in response?

Yes, I am definitely getting paid to post this. I am not posting this because I have severe autism.

Because they don't check your ID when you vote.

Also, to add to my post at Even if it was one sided towards one or the other candidate, the media would never admit it and would keep showing you polls that show that it's a close race that could go either way. Why?

BECAUSE THEY'RE MAKING MONEY OFF OF IT. IT'S A FUCKING BUSINESS. Hence why the important part of my original image which you conveniently ignored, says IGNORE THE POLLS.

Why do you even give a shit what the fucking media thinks? How is it even consequential to your vote? Do you really need the media to make decisions for you and tell you who to vote for?

I'm involved in voter activism work. We use a database sold by Catalist that includes participation in previous elections and demographic data to "score" how likely a registered voter is to turn out on election day. They use this score to weight responses in their averages.

Also, every pol published should have a methodology PDF describing their in house tweaks.

She's got 30 years of failure and disgrace.

That's why she's losing

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

Click "definitions" if you don't understand it. Specifically mean reverted bias is used to "unskew" the polls already or weight them specifically if they oversample democrats in such a way that makes them unreliable.

Before you try to do some dismissive green text shit, these people have literal decades of data with many of the higher rated pollsters. I don't want to hear some bullshit about a jewish conspiracy to rig like 100+ polling firms to arrive at these numbers.

As much as people can question Nate Silver's ability to predict the direction an election will go, he is *extremely* proficient at poll analysis. He's just proven that he's mediocre at predictions that are 3-4 months down the road. He gets short term trends, but not long term ones.

No. She is BTFO but her ego won't let her admit it. Let her fall and enjoy watching her crash. Justice for all the people the Clintons have killed and harmed. Let God pass judgement on these nasty awful people. Let it be quick.

> our slavery
You're a Finn fag!!

He's ahead in all the important swing states

>buh buh buh the poll I don't agree with is wrong! Muh CNN polls!

Mmmmm, salty butt hurt.

Clinton has already lost the election.

Oh if the polls are real I guess Trump is winning, pic related.

>A fucking leaf calling anyone a dumb cuck
>Using MUH CONSPIRACY as an excuse for Trump saying a bunch of things he shouldn't have said.

It helps to be at least A BIT critical of the candidate you're supporting so you know what they could do better.

> knowing you're going to loose
> already preparing excuses

That's one poll.... Try looking at poll aggregates

in what world are Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Florida not important?

Trump literally cannot win without those states

...

All europoors are slaves to the american economic machine which controls the EU

There I'd no reason for Clinton supporters to be silent. They are acceptedbin the mainstream, aren't attacked, can't lose their jobs, supported by the msm. There is no silent Clinton support because they have nothing to fear.

You're an idiot. Many states don't have affiliation listed on voter rolls. The number presented is "self identified", and that happens to skew dem this cycle because Trump is such a fuck up

>Hillary is the Mitt this cycle

>Hillary, who has been winning the entire election and has at times been up by double digits, is the same as the guy who was basically never beating Obama at any point

Top kek. You fags really are delusional and stupid.

I didnt bother reading past the first sentence. You think this is a reliable source? Some user on Cred Forums? retard.

This. The rigging is ridiculous. The Democratic party has become completely corrupt.

They will l100% try to steal the election.

That is why you are hearing the FBI talk about voter fraud investigations right now, to deflect from the future treason.

Classic COINTELPRO

The ultimate question is who ends up coming out to vote...like Brexit or 2008 Obama.
Even with the full force of the mainstream media forcing Hillary down our throats, very few people actually want to vote for her. Depending on the polls, she's barely beating Trump.
Trump has a group of very vocal and excited followers who want to vote for him. He also has a bunch of republicans who are deathly afraid of another 4 years of Obamarama

Given how bad the corruption has been, there is always a chance that the votes will still be rigged.

trips of truth. the following debates more importantly, potential terrorism, will decide the election.

>Trump's line above Hillary's: 3% of the time
>Hillary's line above Trump's: 96%
>It's going BACK AND FORTH!

You are certifiably stupid.

If we are being honest...she is almost certain to win the election.

Uhh they literally sampled twice as many Democrats as Republicans and then called it a poll.

Trump will take Florida easily just like bush did

This thread is hilarious. CTR is in full panic mode. They all know Clinton is going to lose now but they still have to keep going until the end.

The Trump presidency is going to be very hard on them.

I honestly just can't wait for all the fucking tears and shattered realities hitting this board when Hillary destroys Trump on Nov. 8. It is going to be fucking hilarious.

>Hillary will win if only because she's a Clinton. It's actually quite easy to rig polls with the right influence, and Clinton has plenty of that

This is 100% Brexit again.

The rallies, the hashtags that one person you know who you thought would never vote that way but is, it's all for Trump. Everything but the polls.

shhh. Why are you making fun of autists who don't know any better?

>it seems like trump is 100%... yet they are level in the polls
Why do you believe the MSM's polls when it's clear from what they say they're heavily biased?

The purpose of polls isn't to predict the election, it's to keep people from questioning the announced results.

I think its hilarious how since more people are voting for Clinton to prevent Trump from winning, then are voting because they support her, liberal pollsters like the LA times are actually skewing their polls right this cycle to scare liberals into actually showing up to vote.

If you look at the LA time's methodology the poll was literally engineered to give a consistent bias.

thanks for adding to my screenshot collage i will post on the 4th at 11:30 when all of you are crying because NC and FL have been called for hillary

She's manipulating polls everywhere and that's giving her a good chance but none of her followers can name one positive thing she's done in decades and she the all her debate ammo in the first round while Trump has plenty left to talk about

So what.
You think a Trump administration will say
"Hey let's help the Europeans"
Bullshit he will, he'll fuck over every other nation as a competitor to his national business interests. It'll be America the corporation fucking over everything and not paying bills.
> you'll become more of a slave

First election? If you don't present id you have to fill out an affidavit with your name and address that are checked against rolls before being counted. The 19 y/o know it alls ITT makes me weep for millennials

I fucking greentexted when i didn't mean to

time to an hero

Sadly yes. Trump is an underdog in this thing just because of how brainwashed normies are

>tfw it will be even more glorious than when Romney lost.

So like Brexit basically. You do realize remain was in the lead like 96% of the time right?

I didn't watch the whole thing, I got bored out of my mind. It was low energy and is inconsequential.

I am critical of Trump, but it doesn't matter. I don't care too much about Trump, I care about the movement and what it represents. This is what you retarded leftists can't understand. You Bernie candidate failed, so now you ride the dick of the next candidate that isn't Trump that panders to your idiocy.

I don't care if Trump isn't perfect, I don't care if he says stupid stuff and I'm not one bit offended by the things he said because I'm not an overly sensitive trigger-warning leftist cuck like you.

You still don't fucking get that fighting the PC culture of being offended by everything is what the Trump movement is about and STILL try to make Trump sound offensive or stupid to get us to vote Hillary. It didn't work when he did his speech about "mexicans are rapist" and it's NEVER GOING TO WORK.

>Sadly yes. Trump is not doing as well in this election because he's failing to brainwash enough retards/autists to vote for him

Trump becomening president is exactly what we need to severe dependencies with US

What he wants afterwards is a non issue and we will negotiate on _our_ terms

Lmao you literally just proved my point

>I'm gunna make a screen shot collage

My god your life is pathetic. That's the sadest thing I have ever heard. Your priorities in life are all fucked up and you're displaying clear signs of psychosis and psychotic behavior

Please, spend some time away from the computer and get some help

Fuck off war criminal apologist

Here's another.

You're a slave to Brussell and Berlin faggot
You'll be Merkel's little minion always

I can't tell based on your grammar. Are you voting Trump or Hillary? Reply:

trmp wll totes win this election gais

I am voting for Hillary because she is not retarded.

Choose one and only one.

It's basically 50/50. You have to remember that as big as this echo chamber is, hillary has her own echo chamber of idiots in another place. Really the same as most elections to be honest. I have no clue who's going to win it.

>Finland
>highest suicide rates
Why don't you just kill yourself you deplorable.

God she's so awful.

Yeah, I think they both have a chance to win. I've seen Trump support gaining in places like FB and Twitter. But the HIllary supporters are hardcore loyal to her, I can't see anything keeping them from voting her, especially the women.

I think the election is way closer than both sides want to admit. If I had to make a guess at who will win I'd say Trump. Hillary won't get the black turn out that Obama got and she's banking on Millennials who aren't reliable voters.

I really think Hillary fucked herself by pushing away the white working class vote. White working class were a very loyal voting to the democrats and they actually went out and voted.

I don't know how Hillary can win when she isn't black enough to bring black voters like Obama did, white working class hates her, a large chunk of sanders supporters are going 3rd party and the white working class has turned their back.

I actually dislike both Clinton and Trump but despite the polls and media I truly feel like Trump should win it.

If he doesn't I wont be upset. I'm pretty partial this election.

I'd have to see if Trump manages to fuck up the next debates as much as he did the first one. I believe the odds are definitely in his favor, but it's still slightly too early to say for sure. I don't trust the polls, even when they are edging towards Trump.

>buh buh buh the poll I don't agree with is bias!

Delicious salty tears

The silent majority prefers Trump. They're tired of Obama policies, BLM, the normalization of transgender children, LGBT hysteria and the ignorance regarding the threat that Islam presents to the world

Clinton has no chance.

Look, moron. They literally call random numbers from registered voter rolls *without knowing that person's affiliation*. One of the first questions is always "are you a Democrat, Republican, or independent?". The fact that more people are saying Democrat should show you how precarious Trump's position is. You are a faggot.

The whole thread is useless.

CTR and Trump echo chambers colliding with each other. No insight is to be gained, and that is an objective fact. We have to wait and see who wins.

For months I have been operating under the assumption that no matter what either do during this election Hillary will end up winning from any kind of vote rigging she can

the polls heavily undersample independents, which Trump has a great lead with, and is the largest group of voters. the polls are a scam

By an extremely narrow margin. And you don't seem to realize that the presidential race and a referendum binary vote are two different things.

Brexit had many polls that showed both Leave and Remain winning. As an average, "Leave" was never ahead, but there were many individual polls that DID have Leave winning. As you can also see, it spiked just before the vote.

The general election isn't a single yes/no. It is multiple states, and how well locked down those states are decides the entire election. The problem is that in key states, Clinton has remained firmly in the lead and at worst has dipped down into "questionable" territory. It has never been back and forth. It has fluctuated between Clinton +8 and Clinton +3 type stuff, or in some of the closer states it has firmly been Clinton+2-4.

The point being that it hasn't fluctuated between Clinton and Trump in those states, and even in general most all polls are firmly Clinton. It was not the same with Brexit.

>take a """random""" sample of people that doesn't remotely match the electorate
>this is an accurate poll

Uhhh they literally sampled twice as many Democrats as Republicans and then called it a poll.

>Brussell

Is only "important" because of EU which, again, is an american construct meant to control europeans

Good riddance when hellory gets shafted and globalists along with her

>You'll be Merkel's little minion always

Merkel is a fucking joke, damage will be undone

Objectively, Trump is the more shitty candidate.

>she is not retarded
I don't even like trump and id still shoot that cunt if i had the chance

Rig an election and get away with it my ass. The fuck kind of America do we live in where that's not a hangable offense

>PA going red
Nope

Gotta love this guy writing gigantic paragraphs of nothing after he gets proven wrong.

Liberals everyone, literally insane people.

>id

Congratulations! You have cast your vote for Trump.

Trump never armed terrorists or helped pedophiles out of prison

>This echo chamber is fucking my objectivity, it seems like trump is 100%... yet they are level in the polls

Most likely she will win, yes. I don't come in this board often so I don't know how crazy everyone in here has gotten, but he's never come close to being solidly ahead of her and only got close during one week when her email stuff reached fever pitch in the media.

He's consistently behind in polls, which don't sample younger voters as much as older ones more likely to be pro-Trump. His only strength is in less educated white voters. He and Hillary both have baggage, but he's got so much baggage the media can't even keep up with it whereas most of Hillary's baggage is well known and difficult to take on in a new way. There are also two more debates which normally don't effect elections much but in this case he seems almost uniquely ill-suited for when he's going up against 1 person instead of 16.

The only real wild card I can see is whether millenials come out and vote or whether many of them stay home or vote third party due to both candidates being poor choices. This seems like Hillary's biggest weakness as she lacks Obama's support which won him his elections moreso than black voters.

The difference between me and you is: I understand what "objective" means and where it can be applied.

>Clinton is losing the election
>Brexit wins
>Australia is going conservative
>Japan has gone conservative
>Poland is refusing refugees
>Assad is taking Aleppo
>Hoffer will win in Austria
>France is headed for civil war
>The public hates BLM
>Duterte is killing drug cartels
>Trump will be the next POTUS

When did everything go so right?

This change isn't just a local one, it's a growing global phenomenon

Do the people in this thread who say Hillary is likely to win (which is true) actively support her, or do you just enjoy poking holes in Cred Forums's safe space

Because I can get down with the latter, but if you unironically want another Clinton in the White House you're fucking pathetic

Nice backpedalling buddy. You're wrong, the race has gone back and forth idiot.

>The problem is that in key states, Clinton has remained firmly in the lead and at worst has dipped down into "questionable" territory. It has never been back and forth.
Totally false. Trump has taken the lead in Florida, Ohio, Nevada, and North Carolina. Right now Clinton is up in Florida, but barely.

Seriously I am voting against Hillary just because of the ridiculous corruption going on in the Democratic party.

After Google was revealed to be manipulating search results to be pro-Hillary and anti-Trump, I knew I had to vote for Trump.

>u wrote too much lol ur wrong

Trumptards, everyone.

It's funny because I'm not even a liberal. Trump is literally too much of a liberal jewish cocksucker for me to vote for him. You faggots are just complacent with a big government faux liberal because he displayed some nationalism. You're retards.

So you just proved that Hillary will win?

This

Trump can drive Republican voter turnout as high as possible but he's fucked when it comes to getting the Independent vote

t. CTR

Yet again, another insane liberal post with no content.

I love triggering Cred Forums autists. I literally have nothing better to do with my time.

this

also this is why social media is shilling "hey young niggers, register to vote" so hard

Hillary has everyone shilling for her, the MSM, establishment politicians, Obongo, CTR, ads worth millions, etc. She still isn't winning despite all of that. She is just terrible candidate that couldn't even win without cheating and superdelegates.

Doesn't need it.

Indies are taking votes away from Clinton, not Trump

Jews don't know when to stop; they overextend themselves so much that they lose favor with the people. This has happened hundreds of times throughout history.

>muh CTR

It's a mental illness

> just because of the ridiculous corruption going on in the Democratic party

Look, Hillary sucks, and political parties suck, but you realize the Republican party is an even larger steaming pile of shit, right? It's just they aren't being targeted by Russia in an attempt to swing the US election into a result that benefits them

Literally none of those things have happened except brexit

And yet you still rely on his inaccurate analysis. He's great at analyzing polls, of that there is no doubt. However more goes into it than polls. People who have successfully predicted the presidential election for many decades in a row all agree trump has it.

>You're wrong, the race has gone back and forth idiot.

You're wrong, it hasn't. Clinton has never been at an equivalent deficit as Trump has been to her. Not even remotely close. Trump at his BEST polling has gone even with her...for literally about 4 days out of the last 6 months.

"Back and forth" means they've shared taking and losing the lead you fucking retard. She has never lost the lead or even gone even with him for any appreciable amount of time.

Liberalism is definitely a mental disorder guys!
Im14AndThisIsDeep/

>all media is shilling for hillary
>they're still neck-and-neck in the media
>anyone thinking Hillary will win because the media says so

Of course there is a chance. Especially when you consider that globalism meme, and the realities of it. The electoral vote is always a shit show, where we wonder if the election that actually matters will reflect our popular democratic vote.

But in terms of popular vote, yeah, I think he's definitely going to win. Hillary supporters are so low T its not as much fun, as it was with the GOP nomination. But then you realize how conniving and manipulative they are, and its even more motivating to meme the Trumpening into reality.

Actually at first glance most of those seem correct, some are still in fog of war

It's not even close. Look at all of the gigantic corporations, the media, the Clinton foundation, the billionaires trying to push a global agenda - all trying to put Hillary Clinton - The Manchurian Candidate - into office.

I have not seen this kind of widescale manipulation ever.

The corruption in the Democratic party is ridiculously out of control at this point.

About 50 50 id say

Look up the studies yourself, liberals literally have psychopathic traits.

>Do the people in this thread who say Hillary is likely to win (which is true) actively support her

I liked Bernie even though I thought most of his promises were laughs. I dislike Hillary, but I don't think she's even in the same league as Trump, and I think a lot of the animus against her is wildly exaggerated and resulting from misogyny (most obviously on Cred Forums) or younger voters new to politics who see her as the antichrist for opposing Bernie and don't quite have the political understanding to recognize in what ways she is a pretty typical politician and separate Republican smearing from genuine issues

TL;DR - would have preferred a number of other Democrats (or even moderate Republicans if that was possible anymore) but I'll enjoy her crushing Trump and triggering neckbeards

>Austria
Your country was literally cucked by Hitler.

rense.com/general96/insideplot.htm

>He gets short term trends, but not long term ones
>2% chance of winning the primary

Nate Bronze strikes again.

Thank you for.... Correcting the Record

She has a chance. a 30% chance. if by chance we mean percentage of the popular vote, then no - she doesn't have a 'chance' cause that's not how politics works. You don't roll a dice and decide Hillary gets 1-2 while Trump gets 3-6 then throw your hands up for chance for what comes up.

Might work that way in the democratic party lmfao but ayy whaddya know it looks like more people are sick of that than not, even the democrats who got bern'd by it.

It's all a pile of shit but the current democrats are corrupt beyond acceptability. Their candidate had to rig a primary to beat a communist. Whole place needs to be cleaned out.

You forget that no matter how scared they are, niggers are lazy. Obama meant something to them, not some old white bitch.

Clinton will win unless there's some kind of massive bombshell released in October. The election is rigged.

Yes.

I seen one news paper say she is madam président already here but this is just Edmonton metro

You're simply proving my point.

>Clinton has never been at an equivalent deficit as Trump has been to her.
The same is true for Brexit regarding remain and leave. By your own admission, you said Brexit has gone back and forth. Stick to your narrative retard.

Are you genuinely stupid or did you just have a brain fart? Try reading that again, champ. Here, I'll help you:

When did Nate Silver give those odds?
When did Trump win the primary?

Try to puzzle it out, buddy.

>correct grammar
Congratulations! You have cast your vote for Hillary Clinton!

>Press 1 for English
>Press 2 for Spanish

Don't even bother trying to argue logic with that guy, he's just another insane liberal who can't accept reality.

>Look at all of the gigantic corporations
Yes, they've thoroughly debased politics on both sides of the aisle in the US

>the media
They've benefited Trumpy. They're the reason he is where he is, and due to their constant false equivalency problem and fear of appearing more partisan than they already are, they tend to undercover his baggage or present them as equivalent to hers

>the Clinton foundation
This a good example of a genuine issue for Clinton due to conflict of interest and the pay for play stuff, and yet - even with the leaked emails - there's very little of anything solid at all here. Compare that to Trump's charity, which is pretty close to a flat out scam

>the billionaires trying to push a global agenda
Pretty much the same as corporations, they fuck with both sides of the aisle and tend to focused on their own financial well being above all else, just like Trump

You can't fucking read. Refer to my previous post regarding the differences between a binary vote back/forth aggregate and a general election.

Even if we go by the "Leave never went above Remain on average!" argument, the percentages were INSANELY close for the entire duration of the averages...compared to Trump and Clinton where he has spent the majority of this election at insane deficits.

It's funny because most of you say things like "Romney was obviously going to lose" while Romney actually had a much tighter race with Obama than Trump did with Clinton. By a lot.

>Be objective for one fucking moment and tell me, does Hillary have a chance to win?
>This echo chamber is fucking my objectivity, it seems like trump is 100%... yet they are level in the polls.
Realistically, I think there's a 90% chance that she'll win unless she is indicted. One thing not usually brought up is that people get a lot more pragmatic once they get in the voting booth.

Nate Silver said Nevada was going democrat for the primaries. Trump alone got 3 times as many votes as hillary and bernie combined, and there were still cruz and rubio in at that point too.

Nate Silver is a piece of retarded garbage.

Not an argument

Quit moving the goalposts on me.

>538.png

There it is folks.

>>the media
>They've benefited Trumpy.

Please, you can't seriously say that with a straight face.

The media is ridiculously biased against Trump, and in fact it is one of the main reasons I am voting for Trump, because the corruption is so out of hand.

Congratulations for becoming employee of the week for Correct the Record!

$0.02 * 20 has been deposited into your account.

I'm not moving them, you're just all over the place, bro

primarymodel.com/

87% chance of Trump winning. Polls have a major under sampling problem with independents.

You forgot my paycheck there, bud.

You keep switching your argument around. Yes, this election has gone back and forth; even Nate Silver has put Trump up a couple of times on his electoral map. It doesn't matter that this isn't a referendum; that's completely irrelevant to my argument and adds nothing to yours.

>Trump and Clinton where he has spent the majority of this election at insane deficits
This is totally false.

>using a oversampled poll

Corruption
Corruption
Hand in hand

Thank you for... Correcting the Payroll

There, I made it a little easier for you.

Kek, nice one dad

God damn you people are retarded.

>telling people to vote is shilling
fuck Cred Forums, its like a fucking reddit circlejerk full of buzzwords every thread

(You)

Why didn't you link all my posts? Are you not autistic enough for that?

The media appears biased at a glance because Trump has a lot more negative shit to be covered. Look at the amount the Hillary email scandal has been covered, which is basically an example of her tech incompetence and sense that she is above the rules, but beyond that has no substantative evidence of nefarious wrongdoing.

Trump literally has a dozen different scandals and more substantiated shady shit in his past and present that have each gotten a fraction of the email coverage, even though overall they do lead to him dominating negative media coverage.

>Be objective for one fucking moment and tell me, does Hillary have a chance to win?

The only reality I have is the pollsters.

Can pollsters be wrong? Sure.

Can pollster be biased? Sure.

But some of the pollsters are in ferocious competition with each other to get it right. Their pride is on the line. Their future revenues are on the line. Those are the pollsters to trust. The other pollsters get a paycheck from one side or the other, and can't be trusted.

The poll aggregators know all this. The fact is that the top-tier poll aggregators have all had an awesome track record predicting the presidential election for the past few elections. To be a top-tier poll aggregator, you need to predict at least 49 states right every time, or you're not competitive.

And the top-tier poll aggregators all have had Hillary ahead of Trump in the electoral college every single day since spring.

It's not that I "believe" them exactly -- it's that I just have nowhere else credible to turn.

If I'm going to ignore them and all their experience and talent, then I need a goddam motherfucking good reason to do that. Sorry, but reading a bunch of amateurs spinning conspiracy theories on Cred Forums for entertainment purposes and/or shilling purposes just isn't a good enough reason for me.

Ah I scrolled past it the first time. I support trump.

your posts are too shit to bother linking en masse

Goddamn, you really are retarded.

Yes, Hillary will win, and I am saying this as a Trump supporter.

Hillary is MUCH more attractive to the fence-sitters, aided in part by the liberal media.

If you can't see how they are trying desperately to get people to vote for Hillary in these "get out the vote" bulllshit ads, then you aren't paying attention.

They are pulling every trick in the book trying to manipulate this election.

Also i'm not that guy. Oh well.

Hillary literally put national security at risk with the email shit.

>but Trump is worse!!!

Oh shit! I failed the autism test!

>You keep switching your argument around.

I haven't. You just can't read or more than 1 paragraph confuses you. Let me spell it out as simply as I can.

Brexit: Results for polls literally back and forth. Many show Remain winning, and many show Leave winning. Remain edges out Leave overall, and Leave experiences a spike just before the vote that brings them roughly even.

Election: Trump consistently losing all polls from key states. The only thing that varies is how much he's losing by. Has never, at any point, been going back and forth in polls with Clinton. Has spent the majority of his campaign being 3-5 points behind in most key states, up to 10+ points at various points. Clinton has such a substantial lead in many key swing states that they are unlikely to turn regardless. The few states that they have gone "back and forth" on are not enough to win Trump the election. The electoral count, as a whole, has always firmly been in favor of Clinton. At almost no point in the entire election was Trump a favorite.

That's the best I can explain it to you. And now it's time to do something else than BTFO delusional Trumpfags. I'll get more than enough gloating done on election night when you guys are bawling for weeks on end when reality sets in about just how badly you were behind.

Show me what rule I broke, retard. The only thing I did wrong was draw a curve instead of a line, but I'm not autistic enough to argue semantics.

Umm you might want to actually look at the polls.

Brexit was losing literally the entire time until the very end.

>le online presence meme

For intents and purposes, Bernie should have defeated Hillary for the nomination going by what many people here are claiming.

Pic related: Brexit poll showing "remain" consistently winning and then pulling away.

What polls don't measure is enthusiasm, and that's what Hillary does not have. Yes, if you call 1000 urban poor black people and ask them who they support, 95% will say Hillary.

But they're not excited about it.

They're not going to get up on election day and go to the poll and stand in line and push the buttons just to get "that old white bitch" elected.

Just like Brexit, it's less about the polls and more about which side is the most fired up.

Trump supporters are fired up.

It's a shame Democrats railroaded Bernie. His supporters were fired up and would go vote. Hillary doused them pretty good when she backstabbed Bernie.

The test doesn't say anything about not going through walls you autist

The
>can't go through walls
rule is implied, but you are too retarded/autistic to even understand that.

HILLARY'S PARKINSON'S TREMORS CAUGHT ON CAMERA

>youtube.com/watch?v=925ihXI1lkE

>youtube.com/watch?v=925ihXI1lkE

>youtube.com/watch?v=925ihXI1lkE

...

Doesn't say you can't go through walls.

You autistic or something?

You really DO love me, fampai! ^_^;;;

Only dumb motherfuckers follow "implied" rules, faggot.

>Results for polls literally back and forth. Many show Remain winning, and many show Leave winning.
Like Trump vs Clinton.

>Trump consistently losing all polls from key states
False. See pic related for an example.

>The electoral count, as a whole, has always firmly been in favor of Clinton.
Also not true. There was a point in time where Nate Bronze put Trump ahead of Clinton.

...

Yes. I am definitely autistic.

>insane liberal says he's going away
>comes right back

Liberals everyone, they're completely nuts.

She lost bernie fags, I think she's going to fall behind.

Yes. All reliable electoral college polls show she's going to win. Obama won the presidency twice despite polling poorly with whites both male and female of all education levels. Trump however only polls well with uneducated white men, not educated white men and not women of any education level. Shillary has broader approval.

Can't wait to see the butthurt on this echo chamber board when she wins.

In reality Hillary is going to steal it, there is already rampant election fraud. The only way we can take back our country is through a violent revolution.

the other guys posts were just well shitty mate

Bill Clinton was in office when I was in high school. The grocery store in my affluent white neighborhood was offering a $600 signing bonus if you applied for a full time job. Businesses were competing with each other for workers. What did that tell you about how Americans feel when they hear "President Clinton"?

I'm technically a registered democrat. When I renewed my drivers license earlier this year I reregistered republican, got a letter later saying it was too late for this election cycle and I'll switch next year. Or something, don't really care.

tl;dr Democrat voting for Trump. Probably a lot of us this cycle, wonder how many republicans voting for Hillary.

Of course she has a chance. Things can always change.

That said, I don't think it's likely.

I know Down syndrome people with more astute political analysis. Time to an hero m8.

what i hate is when people adopt and idol and worship it endlessly.

trump lost the first debate. he was scatter brained and just overall clumsy.

I hate that his own supporters won't even acknowledge that. If his campaign doesn't agree that he lost, then he's going to lose the remaining debates. Already they're dealing with the mic problem, but he needs to be WAY more preped.

It's very well known that caucus turnout has absolutely no statistical relationship to general election turnout.

If caucus turnout numbers mattered, then obviously somebody would use that analysis to beat the pants off of all the other predictors.

That hasn't happened in any of the past elections.

The only reason Kennedy won with dead voters is because Eisenhower told Nixon to let it go since it would cast doubt on the presidency.

Trump isn't going to just let it go if that happens. If Hillary resorts to fraud, expect a long and drawn out litigation where the US won't have a president for a few months to a year.

I have never met someone enthusiastic about voting for Hillary Clinton. The most you will get is absolute basic bitch retard normie girls that can say the word "experience". They aren't going out of their way to vote for her.

Don't forget cops and the military are massively pro-trump. Likely their families will be too

George HW Bush is
BTFO

>australians actually believe this

I don't know how many posts i've seen from /foreigners/ supporting Hillary over the past year.

(You) do realize you don't get to vote for the United States president right?

The turnout is absolutely not going to be anywhere near 2012. I can't stand the guy but I have to admit that Obama is one of the most popular presidents of the past 100 years and he got out the vote in record numbers. In contrast Hillary is one of the most HATED candidates ever and the only reason that she has a chance is because she is running against the only guy hated more than she is. But Trump has the energized base, he is dominating the independents, and he is doing better with Republican voters than she is with her own Democrats. The other guy us right, Hillary is the Mitt this time, the anointed one, she was never meant to have this fight on her hands (she was supposed to be up against Jeb).

Registered Libertarian voting Trump. Johnson isn't even something that sort of resembles Libertarian.

If it were Petersen, I would have been really torn. Rand was my first choice, as he allows a bit of Nationalism into his policy.

primarymodel.com/

I acknowledge it fully. He had a really solid first 15-30 minutes, and then spent the rest of the time fighting a losing battle, because he reacted to her getting personal.

TRUMP is one of the most feared candidates in history. You don't think that alone will energise the Hispanics and blacks?

I'm not voting. My post was about the probability of whichever candidate winning. Do you normally get emotional so quickly?

Are you intentionally misinformed?

No, I just live in a state with statistically worse education, and thus, am statistically less likely to be informed.

He did the same thing when Rubio and Cruz ganged up on him that one primary debate. I don't think there is any real counter to the personal attacks, like Dilbertman says no one is immune to persuasion and they have been prepping the electorate with 1.5 years worth of confirmation bias against Trump

Registered libtard voting T R U M P. I think there are a lot of us this election. MAGA. Everyone h8s killary because of benguzzi XD

Except you just made a completely false statement.

>does Hillary have a chance to win?
yes
over half the population are googles, women, and gay

This picture sums up why America is in decline. Literally overweight and genetically insuperior hence glasses.

I see it as a tie due to Krauthammer.

He hates Trump, and yet said it was a tie and since Trump is challenger to an incumbent that Trump edges out a win.

Hillary is the incumbent since she was part of Obama's administration and has been in politics for thirty years.

Quality shitposting, lad

No. he literally rambled like a dementia patient for most of the debate then stayed up all night like a little bitch getting mad on twitter. Imagine a man who gets triggered by a Miss U reference so much that he tweets all night about it being president lol.

Upboated! xD

I think he honestly need to recognize phenomena as a thing too.
Which he kinda has. Through general, sweeping statements that are less predictions and more observations.

Still disingenuous for him to never disclose "even a 100% rating on my prediction model would only have 95% confidence interval (at best, though I suspect the real number is much, much lower than that) and that means it can fail one time out of 20"

Lies, damn lies and statistics. It's a shame people involved in politics of all things would be so poor at seeing it for what it is.

Although I do agree, the "what would happen if election was held today" tracker is much, much more useful overall.

Insuperior huh? Tell me more, my obviously mentally uninferior friend.

>lad
>US flag
If you love the UK so much why don't you move over there and make it great again?

Trump only sleeps for 4 hours a day. Trump being awake at 5 AM is not newsworthy.

Hillary has a better chance to win than Trump. Are you seriously taking all the bullshit in this website? Trump is in a serious uphill battle.

No, this picture sums up why Trump is going to win. There is a far larger variety and demographic of people running the gamut from young to old, black to white, even swayed registered democrats voting for him.

Those kids could be wearing Metallica t-shirts and you'd be just as retarded to think Metallica's fanbase is fat high-school students.

I think that Trump managed to do one simple thing with the debate: Prove that he was not the reincarnation of Hitler. Considering that, up to that point, it was Hillary's ONLY attack, he took a lot of steam out of her attack ads.

Too bad he managed to give her something new.

>facts dont exist

Our educational system, ladies and gents.

How new are you?

Sitting on that shit picture since 15 minutes and cant get the right solution to this.

>Straya has finally shitposted at me

>People who are literally trained to follow orders vote blindly partisan and thus support a raving lunatic despite his instanity.
Hmm, I wonder why?

Jesus CTR AND Trump Cult out in full force in this thread.

Yes. She has a 60-65% chance of winning. Vegas has the odds even higher, but Trump easily could still win if enough of her voters don't turn out (which is very possible because there is NO enthusiasm in the democratic base).

>instanity
Tough luck kiddo.

I am the biggest newfag on this entire website.

It's actually because Trump supports the cops and the military, unlike Hillary.

You have to admit though that Trump didn't use anything personal against Hillary in the first debate and didn't bring up any of her scandals.

The second debate will be interesting since Hillary has nothing left, while Trump has a full war chest.

This.

Oh no, I made a typo! Oh, the humanity!

Tbh I like that Trump doesn't let any attack slide. No matter how small, he fights back with extreme ferocity.

I want a president who will fight like that against our enemies.

Trump definitely supports the military! That's why he considers dodging STDs in the 80s his own personal Vietnam!

Maybe it's because the democrats support BLM and Hillary wants a hot war with Russia over hacking something that she had already left insecure.

The only thing Hillary has a chance in is the coastal states, of which she is 50/50 with Trump - meanwhile 30 other states are already pro-trump.

She doesn't have a chance. You don't create a random number generator between 1-100 based on the popularity vote and decide who get's presidency based on that. We're looking at 40/60 Clinton-Trump in the very least. You're not getting a randomly generated number where any value less than 41 means Hillary wins. That's not how politics work.

Yeah! More wars!

> comparing romney enthusiasm to trump enthusiasm

> comparing hillary enthusiasm to obama enthusiasm

This.

Trump actually stands up for himself, Hillary just seems so weak in comparison.

Hillary is a piece of shit Cunt.

Subtle CTR demoralization post

This.

Hillary is not Obama.

Romney actually got excommunicated for going after Trump.

Trump is the common man in that regard.

Everyone defends themselves from slander.

Maybe it's because the republicans support KKK and Donald wants a hot war with China for creating a conspiracy to steal our manufacturing jobs.

who's she?

>pic

is trump even white

Uh, yes, that is actually how statistics work. Polls are not 100% accurate, you can use math to get the probably a certain candidate will win based on the sample size and other factors.

Look up the basic principles of statistics.

its just make up / spray tan he constantly wears

Not without cheating via fraudulent votes/fucking with electronic voting machines/homeland security messing with it.
christiantimesnewspaper.com/breaking-tens-of-thousands-of-fraudulent-clinton-votes-found-in-ohio-warehouse/

The polls are being fucked with/oversampled in hopes to suppress voter turnout.

This thread is officially dead!
I won all the arguments in this thread, believe me folks. I have the best words, and I bigly defeated the cuck /u/o/iKfxGT

Both untrue. I hope you are funposting and not actually this delusional.

Did their fancy degrees predict Trump would get to where he is now?

>G-guys she moved her finger! She is clearly near-death!

You're right. It is untrue that the democrats support BLM and that Hillary wants to start a war with Russia.

Also, /u/o/iKfxGT is so autistic, he actually payed for a Cred Forums pass. How else is he able to post so quickly?

Yes, Trump will be lulz, mostly because of the political beatdowns that will be occurring to (((them))). (((They))) won't have the insider power they've been enjoying and (((they))) they will fucked.

Hillary won't be very lulzy because it will be an actual fucking happening. I think she, and the establishment, think they can just keep pushing the same agenda they've been pushing and they don't realize how close they are to breaking everything.

I can imagine a foreseeable future where we start seeing cops quit their jobs (or just quit trying) due to insane executive orders that put them in so much danger they just say "fuck it".

Trump is lolz.
Hillary is a goddamn disaster.

Winning in the polls, by objectively losing Florida... Early votes favor Republicans for first time in decades.

She's not ahead.

Looks like the Brexit line with "remain" winning, right up until they lost.

Also somewhat like Dukakis vs Bush. Dukakis was ahead in the polls solidly right up until the end, when he lost the election by quite a lot.

Not Parkinson's, she was just reacting to Trump blowing her the fuck out.

I have one but i'm not using it on this device. I'm just really fast at the captcha

Hillary will win, but I think there's a big chance Trump gets the popular vote. He;s got people fired up and ready to go to the polls, nobody wants to go out of their way to support Hillary except lifelong liberal extremists, and most of the nation is conservative or moderate. If it came down to it, you really think she wouldn't just make sure Trump had an accident?

so many delusional people here. Trump can have both FL and OH and STILL fucking lose the election. the electoral map is simply not in his favor. HURR DURR FL AND OH ARE MEGA PRO TRUMP AND TOTALLY NOT SWING STATES AT ASS DURRR

They're called SWING states for a damn reason, dummy.

>Trump supporters are extremely vocal.
Only particular demographics under particular circumstances. You don't risk losing a white-collar job by voicing support for Hillary.

Yep, Trump has Southern and Middle America locked down, especially anywhere near the Southern border.

It would be foolish of you to think this your average election.

Nope. Fear has almost never energized those groups, the only thing that ever got them off the couch in the past 100 years was a black candidate.

He didn't lose, you're a retard

There's more to debates than just talking pretty

The only thing that brings them out is promising free shit, and Hillary can't do that because if she does she'll lose a ton of voters. People are tired of hispanics and blacks.

>that is actually how statistics work
are you black?

If Trump gets the popular vote he will win because the swing states are very close and there are a lot more of them this year than in 2008

Hillary will win. sorry pol

Donald Trump has been able to turn states like Maine and Wisconsin into swing states because he's a centrist

Hillary has stated she will be Obama's third term

Ergo any map which shows her competitive in any state Romney won is wrong, because that would imply that she has pull in conservative-leaning states

Trump is a centrist and the "troo conservatives" were butthurt about that but the reality is that Trump is pulling the right and the middle into his corner while Hillary is stuck trying to convince leftist bernouts that she didn't mean to call them naive basement dwelling kids

The polls currently oversample Democrats so as long as Trump is even within 5 points of her you might as well call it a tie. If the oversampled polls are showing an actual tie then Trump is in the lead. This is because the oversampling plus differences in enthusiasm mean a much larger Republican turnout.

In a normal election year Trump would definitely win, but there remains the possibility that the Democrats are literally evil kikes and will simply rig the vote and shift millions over to Hillary- hence the "Russians might hack the system to give Trump a win". Even if they aren't evil they're definitely gearing up for post-election mass demonstrations to claim that Trump stole the election just like Bush.

You missed the other one. You failed as well.

>1 post by this ID in a 404ing thread

God damn you CTR faggots are retards

This is how I see it:
Hillary in 2008, with a recession in the midst, and LESS scandal ridden and damaged would actually be the favorite to win in this election.
But 8 years down the line, and the sort of bleak world we have now, and all these recent scandals has made her turn into a Jeb Bush.
The only ones who truly support her are the occasional soccer mom and nu-males who don't really look into what scandals she has.
However the media has to inflate her up, and Correct The Record needs to defend her to maintain whatever of her campaign is left.
Trump is a perfect storm of the rise of terrorist and rapefugees, and economic turmoil and screams for change.