RNG games are fucking shit. Why do they slant the RNG against the player? Why tell me I have an 80% chance to hit...

How is that related? If you have a 80% chance of success, does that not mean you have a 20% chance of failure? Which means you are far more likely to succeed than not.

You fucking retards are why television commercials use dumbass math to sell their products.

>our product is within 1% service reliability as our competitor :^)
>sure 98.9% reliability is 11 times more unreliable than 99.9%, but it's still only 1 % :^)

I don't remember how you'd calculate that. Wouldn't the chance of getting 3 misses in a row be 0.2^3 = 0.8%? That's rather small, so I guess it's understandable for OP to be mad if it actually happens often.

The main problem is, probably, the fact that bad memories tend to last longer in our mind.

It's not pseudorandom generation, you fucking retard. Each successive shot that misses doesn't increase your chance of hitting - EACH SHOT, individually, has a 20% chance to miss.

Hitting that 20% mark multiple times in a row is not uncommon, as the events are totally unrelated.

what were they thinking with that? at least nothing can dodge stocks

NO FUCKING SHIT RETARD. Read:If you have an 80% chance of success having multiple failures based on that is highly highly unlikely. Yet it feels relatively common in these types of games. Anytime this is ever brought up you niggers like to go on and on about
>oh its just statistics or do you not know how that works

Sounds like you niggers dont know how they work

...

It's only 1/100, hardly rare. Nigga I've rolled five consecutive natural 1s before.

I bet you didn't even make 3 different 80% chance to hit shots. I bet you missed one 80% chance to hit shot, reloaded and tried again, missed again and then reloaded and tried again for a second time then made this retarded post.

Spoilers: XCOM uses a seeded system where the outcome is already created before you fire the shot, making savescumming useless.

No, that's fundamentally flawed math and I'm not going to sit here and walk you through something so fucking basic.

INDEPENDENT. EVENTS. Your chances of missing an 80% shot once are exactly the same as your chances of missing it 20,000 times in a row - 20%.

Google it faggot, then take your salty bitch ass over to Reddit. Maybe they'll give you a binky and a warm bottle of milk as you cry about how unfair math is.

RNG just makes the game interesting.
You rather a guaranteed shot each time?

>True, but if you get youraelf set up in a position that is obviously good enough for a high probability of success that should be rewarded
You are rewarded proportionally based on how good your position is in accordance to the game's rules. In this case you were given a very high chance of success thanks to clever play, but it wasn't guaranteed, and you got happened to get the unlucky rolls. Fortunately, the game is balanced in such a way that consistently playing well will see you overcome bad luck, so just keep at it.

As for your frustration, there are more than a handful of ways that X-Com bullshits its players, but I'm pretty sure lying about the numbers isn't one of them. There are any number of reasons this might stand out to you (possibly confirmation basis: you never notice landing the 80% shots because it's perfectly expected, but it's really glaring when you miss them), but I'm not a psychic neurologist so I can't help you much there. What I will say is that I think you're not in the right mindset if you get invested in your characters' lives and don't enjoy having a laugh at the ridiculous shit the game throws at you. The idea behind the X-Com games is that losing is fun, though the older ones in the series exemplify this a lot better than the more recent ones. Maybe try those out with this in mind and see if it helps your mood any.

So what you're saying is you literally don't know how it works.

Your chances don't accumulate or stack.

You're facing a 20% chance to miss each time.
If you allow that a 20% chance missing once isn't that strange, then you have to admit that any number of 20% chances missing is not strange, unless you don't understand.

Roguelites are thankfully finally on their fucking way out

The fact most of the difficulty in the new Xcoms comes from the RNG and never triggering pods is a travesty compared to the original and TftD

>as the events are totally unrelated
true, but
>Hitting that 20% mark multiple times in a row is not uncommon
lol

I bet you roll your character stats before the first session and show up with three 18s in your class stats too you fgt

Gambler's fallacy is a prevalent condition, user. He can't help it.

A 1% chance of something occuring is pretty god damn rare come on now. Definitely something sub 1%
Nope. Actually these are spread out. And it doesnt even have to happen in a row. If throughout the course of a game you are missing 80% and above frequently something is amiss

The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the mistaken belief that, if something happens more frequently than normal during some period, it will happen less frequently in the future, or that, if something happens less frequently than normal during some period, it will happen more frequently in the future (presumably as a means of balancing nature). In situations where what is being observed is truly random (i.e., independent trials of a random process), this belief, though appealing to the human mind, is false. This fallacy can arise in many practical situations although it is most strongly associated with gambling where such mistakes are common among players.

Missing twice doesn't change the chances of hitting the third time, it's still 80%.

You shouldn't use a picture of Xcom as an example for bitching about RNG favoring the computer.

Why? Because the game favors the player on most difficulties.

Easy,because fuck you thats why

Like said, it's not 1% chance, it's 20%.

>RNG rolls in your favor
You don't even really notice and if you do you often forget shortly after
>RNG rolls in enemies favor
You scream about how the game is fucking you in your ass and never forget.

The chance for each roll is 20%, the chance for getting 3 misses in a row is 0.8%.

>19% chance to hit
>hits every time

The events are not dependent of one another, you're relying on the gamblers fallacy.

fallacyfiles.org/gamblers.html
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independence_(probability_theory)
>On August 18, 1913, at the casino in Monte Carlo, black came up a record twenty-six times in succession [in roulette]. … [There] was a near-panicky rush to bet on red, beginning about the time black had come up a phenomenal fifteen times. In application of the maturity [of chances] doctrine [the gambler's fallacy], players doubled and tripled their stakes, this doctrine leading them to believe after black came up the twentieth time that there was not a chance in a million of another repeat. In the end the unusual run enriched the Casino by some millions of francs.

It
is
twenty
percent

You have a 6-sided die.

The probability of rolling a 6 on the first throw is 16.6%
The probability of rolling a 6 on the second throw is still 16.6%
The probability of rolling a 6 on the third throw is still 16.6%

I know you're probably baiting but jesus fucking christ how are you all so stupid? Aren't you the people who neglected every other aspect of your lives in order to play videogames? Shouldn't you at least understand basic math?

Chance to get one 6 in a dice roll: 1/6.
Chance to get two 6 in a row in dice roll: 1/36.
Chance to get three 6 in a row in a dice roll: 1/216.
Etc.

You can't really believe you can throw 3 dices and get 3 6's 1/6 of the time, do you?

You dense fucking niggers. You do not understand stats AT ALL. The point is, If you have an 80% chance of success and you try it multiple times and manage to fail everytime, that is VERY UNLIKELY.

And?

The closeness of these posts is genuinely entertaining.

This is why I don't need TV.

it's 80% chance to hit every shot not 80% chance to hit 3 shots

Yet, the probability of getting 3 6's on a row is 0.166*0.166*0.166*100=0.46%, or 1/216.

Not OP, but I have been playing Mordheim here lately and it definitely feels like that game fucks you on purpose...

Over the course of the game you make a shit fuck ton of attacks. Things like this are bound to happen now and then and they are likely the things that will stick with you. If you really don't enjoy the game stop playing. If like the game but you're a little bitch turn off the turn seeding and save scum. Otherwise keep in mind shit can hit the fan no matter what and you should always have a back up plan.

And yet it happens all the time in these sorts of games. Literally alot of the difficulty of them arises from RNG. Yet you faggots will defend with
>thats statistics for you

When its not

>A 1% chance of something occuring is pretty god damn rare come on now.

Not really. Something like that will probably happen once or twice a game session.

except... it's not.

the chance is, and remains, exactly 16.6. Every time. The chance of getting three of them in a row is still 16.6

Repeat after me, user:
St-aht-ihst-eckle En-deh-pen-den-ce

I guarantee rng has saved your ass a good number of times and you just can't recall'em. It is only natural to focus on those unfortunate rolls.

I roll a 6 sided dice 1 million times.
I never land on 4.

I roll a 6 sided dice once.
I don't land on 4.

Which outcome is less probable?

>50% chance to flip this coin on heads
>wtf I flipped it and it landed tails 4 times in a row fucking bullshit

Both wrong/right, its really fucking simple/complicated:

Roll a 6: 1/6th to get a number
Roll a 6 again: 1/6th to get a number regardless of first roll

Independent of eachother, the chance remains

but:

roll a 6 then another 6 and get both of them to be a 3 is a 1/36 because it happened but not because the chance was there.

You had the 1/6th chance to get it the first time, then a 1/6th chance to get it the second time if you got it the first time. But overall you had a 1/36th chance of it happening to you.

Think of it like this:

RIGHT NOW AS YOU ARE ROLLING you have a 1/6th chance to get a 3

>Get 3

RIGHT NOW AS YOU ARE ABOUT TO RE-ROLL you have a 1/6th chance to get a 3 again, nothing here changes.

THE ODDS OF GETTING THOSE TOGETHER ARE WHAT 1/36TH REPRESENTS, NOT THE INDEPENDENT ROLLS.

INDEPENDENT VALUE: CHANCE OF LANDING ON 3

DEPENDENT VALUE: CHANCE OF LANDING ON 3 MULTIPLE TIMES IN A ROW

Having it happen at that point is the same as last time, having it happen after accomplishing it is what gets you the actual probability.

not interesting, frustrating

What is the term OP is looking for... I cant remember my stats class, but there is some sort of problems where you decide the probability of something happening multiple times. Like the dice examples. You have a 1 in 6 chance to get a particular role, but it is even far less likely to get that same role two times in a row

>the chance is, and remains, exactly 16.6. Every time.

It's funny because I have not one time said this was not the case. What I have been repeating, which you seem not to understand (probably because you haven't studied combinatorics) is that getting x in a row is different.

Let's say you have 10 different cards, numbered 1 to 10 for convenience.
Chance to get a 10 the first time? 10%.
Chance to get a 10 ten times in a row? 0.1^10*100.

Yes, chance to get a 10 each of the times is 10%. That's why you use that same value in the formula each time. Let's say you took out a non-10 card (1, 2, 3, etc) after each time you get a 10. Then, it would be: 0.1*0.11*0.125*0.143*0.167*0.2*0.25*0.33*0.5*1*100.

Not going to go over it again. Ask your maths teacher.

Because they simply don't tell you everything and the calculations are wrong.

This has been my point this whole thread. At least someone understands stats.

If that happens once, you're unlucky.

If that happens over and over and over again, it's rigged.

Fuck off.

Some of us like RNG. If you don't like it, don't play the games you god damn moron.

You are the kind of retard that makes casinos rich

Unlikely doesnt mean impossible you nigger.

I bet you're conveniently forgetting all the 40% shots you've hit because it doesn't support your argument.

No he's not, he's the type of person that doesn't gamble.

Are you autistic? Not being able to understand and recognize sarcasm is very common among special folks.

OP cant math
/thread
No you for you

Rng is a skill

you have a .8% chance of missing it thrice in a row despite an 80% hitrate with an unbiased RNG
which is indeed very unlikely, but it's far from impossible

and that .8% is purely observational and doesn't affect the rolls -- the events are independent, so you still have a 20% chance each shot to miss

I hope everyone has been having fun in this bait thread.

If you would read the thread you would see a couple of people explaining how you are a dumbass

Jesus you have no fucking idea how math works do you? If you roll three dice, then what is the chance every single one is a 6 buddy? It's the same idea except you look at rolling one dice 3 times as a single event.

If you look at it in terms of xcom, yes, every time you take the shot you have an 80 percent chance, but if you look at groups of shots of three, the chance of missing all three of those shots is less than one percent.

Might not affect the rolls but it does show just how unlikely it is to happen. And again as stated before. That sort of shit is pretty damn prevalent in RNG based games

>RNG fags will defend this

Because XCom would be piss easy if it didn't hide behind an rng wall

>OP can't into probability and has confirmation bias

There are some RNG games that calculate the odds wrong or don't give you information such as this enemy has a 50% chance to dodge your first attack every round. All the other games would simply be you remembering incorrectly or at the very least forgetting all the times you hit when and won when the odds are against you.

This post is so ironic it hurts.

That's because RNG games 1. cheat like crazy, 2. don't actually generate a truly random number, or 3. some combination of the two.

umm blizzard and the hearthstone devs say RNG increases skill and is good for games, are you doubting blizzard??

B-BUT THEY TOLD ME XCOM DICE ROLLS IN YOUR FAVOR!

Correct

you have 20% chance to miss each time, but if it happens then the odds of it actually happening is .8% while the original chance to miss each time NEVER changes.

>Why tell me I have an 80% chance to hit, but then proceed to have me miss it 3 times in a row.
Are you retarded.

Read the thread dumb fuck. Maybe you will learn something

Do you two lack reading comprehension?

Exactly. The odds of you failing on something that has an 80% chance of success multiple times is incredibly unlikely and bullshit

>%3 chance to drop

This garbage is the exact reason I stopped playing Monster Hunter.

It serves no purpose other than to waste your fucking time. God damn it all.

Yes unlikely, but NEVER impossible.

You are fucking dumb. You say that I cant "into probability" when obviously you cant. The OP states how missing something with a high percent chance multiple times is bullshit because its incredibly unlikely due to probability, which you fags like to being up so often.

If you consider that great number of attacks made through out the whole game it really isn't as unlikely as you think.

Just save edit nigga everyone does it

Incredibly unlikely is 1/100000 or something, like the Zodiac Spear in FF12.

1/125 is just unlikely. It's bound to happen once. Who cares? Let it go.

Final Fantasy Tactics Advance
25-35% chance actually meant 100%
95-99% actually meant 50%

Yet in these games it seems like these unlikely probabilities are far more common than not. Hence why they have memes dedicated to that.

That's because it's REAL RNG and not the pseudo random most games are doing now, making it seems much more like bullshit.

It's almost like people lack perspective in large probabilities or something, otherwise no one would ever buy lottery tickets.

Welcome to Turn Based Games 101: Turn Based Games Aren't Fun.

>wall of bodies
>try to shoot one
>20% chance to hit
>miss that target
>no chance to hit anything else because whoops the bullet doesn't actually exist

THE FIRST GAME FROM TWENTY FUCKING YEARS AGO SORTED THIS SHIT OUT, WHY DO YOU MAKE IT WORSE NOW?

XCOM:EU's RNG was wonky and you shouldn't assume every RNG based game out there is like it.

git gud nigga, the game gives you a shiton of tools to increase your hit chance, not that I use them because 35% is good enough for me

Would be great if the new xcom had this.

It can actually hit the environment to destroy cover or start fires, it just can't hit other enemies.

>Rookie has 90% on an alien with a Snap shot
>Misses
>Flies across the map
>Head shots the highest ranking officer who is wearing full armor

>mec trooper melees
>misses and kill himself with his own punch

>Its just probability get gud

Thanks for putting it so thoroughly, was what I was thinking while reading all these posts.

/thread

>have 4 items that literally say "It will make land the shot"
>have flanking
>have terrain level bonus
>have group auras and bonuses
>have grenades
Yes, fucking git gud

I have never played Fallout

Why would you ever do that "Pick an area to shoot at" instead of just shooting them in first person?

>I have never played Fallout
don't. it's beyond fucked up now. and if you do, don't be a retard and start on the 3rd or 4th game of a series.

Because that was how you attacked in the first two games, which were isometric games. So they clumsily transplanted that to 3D.

Are RNG fags the worst?