Let's try to have a civil discussion

Let's try to have a civil discussion.

That is the current state of the election according to averages taken from polls for every state. RealClearPolitics makes all of these polls accessible here: realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/

Only North Carolina and Florida are still in play as Clinton and Trump are literally in an exact tie in those two states.

In every other state, polls show the states have already made up their minds on who they want to elect for the most part. For example, Trump is winning by 5% over Clinton in Georgia and Clinton is beating Trump by 19.3% in California.

So, North Carolina and Florida. Let's do some math.

There are four ways this can go down:

> Trump wins FL
> Clinton wins NC
> Clinton wins the election with 275 electoral college votes.

> Trump wins NC
> Clinton wins FL
> Clinton wins the election with 289 electoral college votes.

> Trump loses both states
> Clinton wins NC & FL
> Clinton wins the election with 304 electoral college votes.

> Trump wins NC & FL
> Clinton loses both states
> Trump wins the election with 278 electoral college votes.

Assuming the polls aren't outright lies, 3 out of 4 of these realistic scenarios end with Clinton becoming president. The statistical odds are in her favor even if the popular vote for these two states isn't on election day.

Things Trump has going for him:

- Ohio has decided the last 14 elections; meaning, whoever Ohio votes for generally wins the presidency. Trump is winning in Ohio.

- Obama didn't win North Carolina. North Carolina is generally a red state which means it will be harder for Clinton to win there.

As it stands, it looks like Clinton will be president, but it is a very close race.

Other urls found in this thread:

realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton-5633.html
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/va/virginia_trump_vs_clinton-5542.html
washingtontimes.com/news/2016/jun/19/hillary-clintons-long-list-of-lies/
thepoliticalinsider.com/t-day-evergreen-7-wildest-lies-hillary-clinton/
politifact.com/personalities/hillary-clinton/statements/byruling/false/
chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/commentary/ct-hillary-clinton-lies-health-emails-benghazi-20160920-story.html
lmgtfy.com/?q=hillary clinton lied
washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/aponline/20001108/aponline183922_000.htm
270towin
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/la/louisiana_trump_vs_clinton-5696.html
twitter.com/SFWRedditImages

Im gonna tell you this right now, and you have no reason to believe me, but Trump is going to win Pennsylvania.

I drive all over western PA for work. During the primaries, there were plenty of Bernie signs out. There were still Obama stickers on cars. There were a few Trump signs here and there. Now? Nothing. Those Bernie yards, I've driven past them, there's nothing. The Trump signs are everywhere. And there's big ones out now too. The Obama stickers are gone. I have seen exactly ONE Hillary bumper sticker in 4 months. Her only stronghold here would be Philadelphia. Philly loves their shitty Democrats, but they love their cops more. And their cops endorsed Trump. Temple U is in Philly. Hillary just had an event there, and she barely got 200 students to show up. Obama drew 10,000 there before.

She has no momentum. She has no public support. The motivation to vote died when Bernie stepped out.

She will not win Pennsylvania.

If you want to read more, look up Selena Zito. She has a great article about Dems who work blue collar jobs and are voting for Trump.

Trump isn't going to win PA, bud. He's very behind in the polls there.

realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton-5633.html

Dude western PA is always red. But Pittsburgh and Philly will pull the weight and make majority blue.

Yeah, he's not winning VA.

Troll harder

Fucking electoral votes are stupid. Each state should have 1. That's it.

No more california, florida, and ny fucking everything up for everyone. Liberal shitholes.

These are correct.

Also, I doubt he'll hang on to Ohio.

That's even worse than electoral college, dumbass. It should be popular vote.

realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/va/virginia_trump_vs_clinton-5542.html

Haha these though. OP is dumb.

America is an anti-democracy, where the majority doesn't rule, but the minority does. Popular vote would be the opposite of that. In other words, it would never happen.. "muh discrimination" and all that stupid shit.

One vote, each state. Equal representation, period.

> dumbass

Guess we get to look forward to a few weeks of Florida recounts and lost ballets

You are wrong. That is all.

Because so many new yorkers move to north carolina its confused now...

Thanks for explaining things

Cleveland Fag Reporting In: MAGA

There was a terrorist attack 2 days ago fags
Votes for trump will just keep rising significantly among undecided people
If another happens, trump wins for sure

There's a reason that didn't happen when they made the constitution, and that's because it makes individual votes in more populated states count less than individual votes in less populated states

That is the most stupid thing I've heard all day.
States like Wyoming and Vermont (~500,000) should have the same voting power as states like Cali and Texas (~30,000,000)?

>Wyoming (less than 600,000 people) should have as much say as California (38 million people)

Polls and votes don't matter

this will be the result . dubs confirms it

forgot pic

1. Bumpers stickers don't vote.

2. PHILLY

It would avoid minorities flooding certain cities/states. It makes perfect sense.

The system is shit. In 20 or 30 years, your entire lives will be dictated by minorities.. who are no longer minorities but will surely still expect to be treated like minorities.

In 40 years or so, Cali and NY will decide every election.

> nah, THAT'S NOT STUPID.

Ok, here's he solution: make elections democratic. Get rid of the electoral college, switch to the popular vote. That way, the will of the majority of citizens will be represented in government.

The only reason states even matter in the election is because of the electoral college. If we went to a straight popular vote it wouldn't matter what fucking state you're from, and everyone's vote would be equal.

That is best-case scenario for Trump with him winning every battleground state, which isn't likely. Even winning FL, OH, NC, NH, NV and IA doesn't get him to 270 lol.

But then all the big cities get decide the elections. Is that fair to those living in rural areas of the country?

Actually

The electoral vote was set in place to prevent any major group from swaying polls, as a protection against large independent groups from taking control, as a way to ensure fair government.

The Electoral vote system now is a way for the government to control who gets the office.

The electoral system is corrupt and robs Americans of their vote. A state that's primarily Trump might have a representative of democratic alignment, and as rights go, that representative can lawfully vote for whomever they choose regardless of what the majority of that state wants, to either protect their position politically or to secure a good deal.

So it sounds to me, you fucking uncultured swine, that the electoral system is in dire need of expiration as the voting power of Americans is in the hands of government and not the people.

If it were a one to one vote without electoral systems, Obama would have never been elected. Bush either. This is why Al Gore demanded recounts, because if everyone was treated equally, he would have won.

Tell me again about how dumb it is to disregard electoral system?

Same result. Minorities are breeding like rabbits with little to no depression, suicide, mind-med participation, etc.

Whites. The exact opposite.

We voted ourselves into a genocide.

>everyone's vote would be equal.
Sounds good to me.

i'll just leave this here

charlesortel.com

>civil discussion
>Cred Forums

>Trump supporter trying to talk about corrupt charitable foundations

Oh man, that is hilarious.

No man, you're not getting it. I don't think representatives from each state should cast a single vote. I think each state should have a single vote decided by their citizens. A state-based popular vote.

Each state, one vote.

Fuck white people. I'm white and my race is a fucking embarrassment.

Pathetic fucking spineless cowards.

who said I'm a trump supporter?

the guy you linked to is

>very close race
why? how came these things to pass, america?! a liar and a racist are tied neck and neck to be your next leader, what the actual fuck?

You have VA red when Clinton has led in every poll there since July.

Let's try this again.

Why do you think Hillary is a liar? What has she lied about?

It doesn't matter how bad-ass a wolf is when it's chained to the ground, user.

...

That's an inherently unfair system. A voter from a state of 300,000 would have 10 times the voting power as a voter from a state of 3 million

The first published paper about the clinton foundation found on

charlesortel.com

goes back to april 2015. you're stretching....
and really who wouldnt be a trump supporter if you read this stuff, everyone should read it.

You're right.

what is the last thing she said?

whatever it was, she lied about that.

>Obama would never have been elected

Obama won 52.9% of the vote in 2008. He still would have been elected under a direct election.

The debates are going to give Hillary a bump in the polls and that's probably going to be the decider.

Trump is going to need something big to happen if he wants to have a decent shot at winning.

...

That's a very productive response

Theres pros and cons to both sides of y'alls debate. One vote per state means that ultimately each vote weighs the same in terms of importance. However...

States with a bigger population would suffer because their vote would weigh the same as a state with a small population. But I find myself asking why that would be a bad thing. It shouldn't be about quantity, it should be about quality.

The current system is inherently unfair on the opposite end. Do you have a problem with that?

It would do two things, over the course of decades: equalize populations across states, and break states up into more logical sizes.

> California broken up into 10 or so states? Sounds good to me.

watch her lie, its physics

new thread with accurate map

Hillary had an awful week followed by 5 days of recovery from pneumonia followed by a terrorist attack in NYC and she's STILL LEADING.

So I guess what I'm saying is Trump is basically fucked unless some fantasy Bradley effect shit goes down.

Not bloody likely.

Why would we need a new thread?
The map is here

this is me speechless because of how retarded your question was.

well put

So... you don't have any examples?

May people will be replying without reading all the comments, which will be confusing.

>pneumonia

this is the same pneumonia she has been fighting since she postponed the first benghazi hearings.
lol
Her doctor told me.

what he said.
538 has hillary crushing in virginia

>

Somebody educate me on how Trump could ever win the electoral college. Democrats obviously won't back him, and it seems like the republicans would only vote for him to be anti-democrat. Serious question, I don't usually do politics.

washingtontimes.com/news/2016/jun/19/hillary-clintons-long-list-of-lies/

thepoliticalinsider.com/t-day-evergreen-7-wildest-lies-hillary-clinton/

politifact.com/personalities/hillary-clinton/statements/byruling/false/

chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/commentary/ct-hillary-clinton-lies-health-emails-benghazi-20160920-story.html

lmgtfy.com/?q=hillary clinton lied

>i have tons

the non-contageous bacterial pneumonia that everyone around the office has been getting.... right

lol

>these trips

new thread:

Voter turn-out. That's what decides most elections.

The idea of a true "undecided voter" is bizarre. The only significant number of undecided voters are those that are undecided between voting for the candidate closest to their views or staying home.

It shouldn't matter what state you're from when you vote for the president. I live in Texas, with a 1 vote per state and with the electoral college, it doesn't matter what I vote unless I vote republican. My choice doesn't exist

>70 posts
>new thread

How fucking sad is it that all of our president might ultimatley be decided by the sister-fucking hicks of North Carolina and fucking Florida?

That's the electoral college for ya

I think you're confusing NC with AL. As a Georgian, I consider NC to be in the North.

Your vote already doesn't matter.

yeah fuck FL. nothing but sand gnats and sunburn

there was still no debate you useless cretins
biggest swing is always at the end of the race

>Texan native
>moved to FL for the worst 3 years of my life

dont get me started on florida.

where America goes to die. Yet, Britbongs love it there for some reason. I have British family and I'm always trying to get them to stop visiting Orlando. I'm like "Hey, come see Utah. Check out the Smoky Mountains in North Carolina. Let's go to D.C.." but no Britbongs only want to holiday to Florida.

Floridian reporting in. These are exactly right. There's not a part of florida that isn't shit and you shouldn't be here for anything longer than 3 days.

Also from Georgia. NC is even deeper south than us, believe it or not

Brits? Really? How bizarre. I lived in the TBA, out near Clearwater. Jesus christ what a shit hole. The entire state looks like it never even bothered to rebuild after an apocalypse that happened 40 years ago. I've never had a doctor call me a liar before either, thanks Florida.

>Let's try to have a civil discussion
I'm terribly sorry, but that is a statistical improbability.

What I've chosen to do, is revel in what has been revealed about the world and the people within it. It's nice to know where you seem to genuinely stand in the grand scheme of
>petty
things.

kek

If i roll trips, everyone flips shit and this post isnt civil anymore.

I'm in CA Silicon Valley. Biggest shithole infestation of stupid liberals! CA sucks!

Ah yes.

Good old CA, IL and NY. Bastions of the ideal state that will lock in who gets put into office for this election and many more to come!

Just look at how perfect CA, IL and NY are and know that they should be the mark which the rest of the county aims for!

You're not wrong. I hate these liberal gun laws. California would be a much better state if they took their water crisis seriously and had Georgia's gun laws.

Libtards and gun laws you say?

Just think. those little speks of blue make the masses of red bend over to suck on that sweet sweet government dick.

Wait a second-- you mean criminals with guns are more likely to shoot people who DONT have guns? Ground breaking. And useless.

It's not useless. It means in order to prevent shootings, you arm everyone.

...

this is a statistic for "gun violence" so its reasonable that suicide alone would turn all the high gun ownership areas into blue areas...

doesnt explain ME or NH. far west PA, mississippi, new mexico, border areas of texas, or the exact reverse of population to red/blue in Minnesota, utah, ok, half of florida

so about half the map. what you've just come up with is a statistical error. Turns out there are red cities after all.

Aren't we all Racist here?

>deplorable
ftfy

No it means you have shit sources when it comes to infographics.

is right.

apparently.

What the actual fuck.

Or maybe, just maybe, the places with high incidents of gun violence have been the places where people vote for those who actually seem concerned about gun violence.

Look at the Texas border. High gun violence, blue voters, and plenty of guns for everyone because it's Texas. If Republicans want to stop gun control laws, they need to show that they care about gun violence first

Lol, just did a bit more research. Those maps do look similar, in fact a bit too simalar. It matches up county by county with the 2004 election results. Yeah, my map had a bit of statistical error, but unless this is some impressive corelation, thats literally an identical map. Idk, maybe your right and every single one of those are so directly caused by liberalism that there is 0 room for error. Or maybe your just some shithead who found some bogus shitty jpeg online and has decided hes an expert.

>they'll ever care about gun violence

Sandy Hook was our worst case scenario. Tiny tots getting shot in their classrooms and no one gave a fuck about our kids safety, just about the headline in their FB feeds. If the thousands of deaths per year due to gun violence aren't enough to change their minds, nothing will short of someone sticking a gun in THEIR face at walmart when they left their open carry in the glovebox. Republicans are selfish cunts. They don't want to sacrifice anything if they aren't getting something in return, and that usually ends up translating to "higher taxes to pay for shit?! I DONT EVEN NEED THAT SHIT WHY SHOULD I HAVE TO PAY FOR IT!?"
>abortion clinics
>health care
>food stamps

kek at the media
> looks like two or three lone wolves got together and did this
> so any chance that this was a terrorist action?
> oh none non at all
so scared of giving trump a potential boost that they literally try to downplay a terrorist attack

Better than saying it was a terrorist attack when they didn't know if it was or not

How so?

Americas gun problem stems from Americas nigger problem.

Or you know they could have said something along the lines of

>At this time we cant say for sure if it was or was not a terror attack.

That's why if I ever get rich I'm going to start a program to get lots and lots of guns to gun-deprived minorities - maybe if I'm lucky I can even score some of that surplus military hardware shit the cops have.

We'll be more free once I've got an AR-15 into the hands of every deprived latino kid in the nation!

guy yelling allah ackbar
isis taking credit
hmmm we have no clue guys but isnt Obama the shinniest black person ever?

k

Because they shouldn't give out speculation as news, that's for the tabloids. Stuff like this happens when they do

washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/aponline/20001108/aponline183922_000.htm

hi

ok explain why they tried to downplay it calling it a pressure cooker with wires, and then jumped on trump for calling it a bomb, which it was.

Because when people hear bomb they think of a mass produced military weapon, which would imply that ISIS is taking a much more active, coordinated offense to the US. As of now the FBI doesn't know if the men were part of an official ISIS cell, or just guys swayed by ISIS who made their own IEDs

Calling it a bomb vs IED is nuanced communication that trump is incapable of

hilary is going to win....sadly

OP's picture is literally, factually false. You can go to that website, and make the map look like whatever you want. Seriously.

270towin com/

OP's map is based on polls, dumbass. Did you even read the OP?

538 has him winning both FL and NC

>it's based on polls
>Assuming the polls aren't outright lies

So, if the polls are outright lies, then it is quite factually false. Mathematically, and maybe logically sound. But, ultimately false.

Let's keep in mind that the source/s weren't stated in OP's post. We've to make our own assumptions as to where the percentages came from, even from sources we can find on our own.

r8 or h8

He still loses though unless he can manage to win Virginia also

Louisiana isn't voting Democrat.
Pennsylvania isn't voting Republican.

Obama won NC in 2008 but not 2012.

last Louisiana poll i checked had clinton ahead, guess i just read it wrong. thanks, i'll edit it.

i legitimately think that pa will flip

The sources are literally in OP's post. Just follow the link. PDFs of all of the polls are available there. You can make your own judgements about how the polls were conducted by actually reading them.

realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/la/louisiana_trump_vs_clinton-5696.html

Philadelphia, dipshit.

Ofcourse it is. The majority of people live in big cities. You think some hillbillies in the middle of no where are more important?

yeah, thanks friend

This. Clinton has it in the bag.

I don't agree with tyranny of the majority

So you know nothing about political demographics in the US?

>All of Florida is a beach.

Basically

Trump could win. A month ago it looked like he had no realistic shot. Sources from the Clinton campaign are now saying that they don't expect to win Ohio or Florida. Georgia has now gone back to Trump. Colorado, New Hampshire, and Nevada are still realistically in play for Trump. If he can pull 2 out of those 3, he wins. As of yesterday Nate Silver gave him a 41% chance of winning. Those are pretty good odds.

what about blacks + hispanic/latino?

more people identify as conservative than moderate or liberal. but it's the moderates that flip elections.

Colorado is a red state this election.

polls do not reflect voter energy or apathy

there is a difference between calling someone and asking who they would vote for, and that person getting off the couch to go vote

Obama had record turnout when he won, first black president meme has that effect, blacks shattered their usual piss-poor turnout and went to the polls in droves

hillary is not reaching this level of voter engagement

her rallies are growing smaller by the day, if they aren't cancelled outright

her base is growing increasingly disenchanted with her love for big business and complete lack of transparency

she is losing support among millennials

she is even losing some black voters to trump, who is doing pretty well in this most loyal democratic demographic

Republicans on the other hand saw the greatest primary turnout in history this year.

Trump broke the record set by Bush Jr. for most votes received in the primary, despite a field of 17 candidates who stayed in WAY past any viable chance of winning, for the sole sake of forcing a contested convention

by all accounts, the republican party has grown considerably with a new candidate and platform that foregoes some of the social conservatism to embrace a wider range of republican voters

If republicans coalesce around Trump, he wins, and it's looking like that's gonna be the case

States where Trump is a mere 1-2% behind offer trump a real upset chance, because those trump voters are pissed off and they WILL be at the polls on voting day, and hillary's increasingly disenchanted base wont

Not bad, but Louisiana is wrong. The cities won't be able to carry the vote. Laffy is a college town and most of the students there hate Hillary then the rest are all pro trump. Baton Rouge has a good bit of college students as well, but most that i've talked to doesn't want to vote. Most are trowing it. Then we have NOLA, and that place is full of Dems and its a pile of shit. Other then the culture of the city, mostly the french quarter, its complete shit. The tri parish, bayou region is hardcore trump.

Hasn't worked in other states.

How is it tyranny. It's called majority rule. Which is easily the fairest way to do things.

Wait until the new polls after the Islamic terrorist attacks. Hillary's policy to import millions of potential terrorists to kill Americans will finish her off.

except he is not racist. this word gets thrown at anyone who isn't democrat and its bullshit.

Virginia is blue you dumb shit.

Wubba lubba dub dub I don giv a fuk man3

You I like you

>PA
>Blue
Top kek.
Shill harder

I've never seen so many gop voters come out of the woodwork.

Mex-American here, I would seriously vote for Trump if Johnson wasn't running. Fuck Hillary. Fuck her so much.

I'd rather deal with racist whites than wetbacks and niggers who breed the drug dealers and gangbangers of tomorrow. At least the racist whites won't mug me.

That being said, Trump will be a horrible President, and I'm looking forward to it if he wins. Better than that horrible wench cunt Shillary.

Fuck you all.

Texas has 27, Cali has 40.

There is no water crisis, majority of the water is used for growing bullshit like almonds. I agree with you on the gun thing, gangbangers would see their numbers dwindle.

Americans hate each other for all kinds of reasons, race being just one of many reasons. Bunch of miserable fucks.

Polls don't mean jack shit, it's an easily manipulated means of propaganda.

The poll taking companies and people doing the polls have a desired outcome and they simply poll target demographics (or choose not to poll certain demographics), to give their numbers the desired slant.

For instance, on all major news networks Gary Johnson polls like 3%. The truth is that out of all registered voters, he actually has about 20% of the vote and the numbers are going up.... but all major news networks deliberately under sample people under 30 (the libertarians main support block)...

The idea is that if people see that their candidate is polling low, rather than encourage them to get out there and make up for it, it tends to dissuade them from voting at all.

tl;dr
Polls don't mean anything and are easily corrupted.

They'll stuff as many fake ballots in Philadelphia as necessary.