NOOOOOOOOOOOOO STOP IT

If Hillary wins, she'll deport Pepe.

We must nuke Commiefornia.

>New Mexico,surrounded by Trump states,is blue
Explain

That's not true though. If he wins NV and CO, he wins. If he wins the district in Maine, he could win with just NV and NH

>New Mexico
>Mexico

there you go beans jumping over the border

you're pretty dumb dude

If he takes CO and NV, he wins.

God I just want to see if Trump can flip New York.

That would be so amazing.

Isn't that the same case with Texas?

screencap this

the lefty butthurt is going to be glorious

He was at 50+ at one point, then dropped to 2-3 and now he's back at 40. The fuck is going on?

Tbh I don't think he'll take CO. Otherwise this map is pretty spot on.

Swap CO and NH.

Polling says he's ahead in CO right now and behind in NH.

>Israeli

Jew Detected.

That's actually pretty possible desu senpai.

These percentages being irrelevant is what's happening. If your data fluctuates by this much then your method sucks.

lol no. she still has nevada

Not a chance. Honestly NY should split their votes like Nebraska and Maine. Upstate, tho not contributing many electoral votes, would go consistently red.

CO is solid blue

Educate yourself.

VA will be voting red this year

kek no

I think a lot of people who don't normally vote are going to vote for this one though. And vote for Trump.

Texas remembers the Alamo and Arizona passed SB 1070.
Of course, if latinos decide to vote it can possibly tip the state blue for the first time since Ol Wild Willy Clinton

Map needs correction fo Maine.
Maine's 2nd district reporting here. He is up 10% here, it is impossible for him not to succeed here. Every third house and car is plastered with Trump bling and there has literally not been a single hill sign seen in the entire district.

The local Trump support is so high and fanatical that it would be a serious risk of vandalism if anyone dared put up hill signs, vocal support of her could very well provoke a physical confrontation.

NH has a 2.8% unemployment rate. Why would they want Trump to blow that up?

If Trump doesn't win CO, then Johnson will. Everyone here hates Clinton more then Trump

>40% chance of winning
Brexit had lower chances than that desu

>yfw your candidate is a walking corpse and has no chance of winning the election

he's literally closest to winning Colorado (aside from Nevada where they are tied pretty much)

I do not see the purpose of having a "probability tracker" that changes every day. I understand like "this is the probability AS OF TODAY" however to me that is basically just a fucking scoreboard.

If Ape Silverback had a model that actually worked, he could plug in all his data today and give us accurate odds that would hold true through Nov. 8th, not a script that just aggregates polling data and gives us the current score.

Useless.

Based on what? There was a poll this week that had him up +4

She hardly "has Nevada". There are tons of uneducated whites there. Basically his demographic. Spics can't compete.

That trendline though...

Why does Maine get to split into two districts?

American elections confuse me

realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/co/colorado_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5974.html

Latest poll in CO = Trump +4

>it can possibly tip the state blue
libcucks have been saying this for 30 years

Texan culture transcends our politics

Even Nate Americium is showing that Trump would win Nevada if the election happened right now.

guns

Because states in the US actually have rights and are more or less run by the people who live in that state, including deciding the rules for how they vote.

Fucking kek, who draws this shit

Only maine and fucking Nebraska do this dumb shit where it actually depends on how close someone wins in order to get the votes. Every other state is just whoever gets over 50 wins the state.

youtube.com/watch?v=XvyRIgPImOY

>There are tons of uneducated whites there. >Basically his demographic.

kek

>how close

its done by district, just like primaries, you fucking ape

Since 1969, two of Maine's four electoral votes have been awarded based on the winner of the statewide election; the other two go to the highest vote-getter in each of the state's two congressional districts. Every other state except Nebraska gives all its electoral votes to the candidate who wins the popular vote in the state at large, without regard to performance within districts.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maine#Federal_politics

sorry I meant Arizona which is why I referenced Bimbo slayin Bill. That was the last time Arizona voted blue

fortunately from current news reports the Latino community isn't really excited about either candidate and most of them said they'll just stay home. The only ones who are passionate about Hillary are "the Dreamers"

Nate Sodium is a fucktard, his projection is utterly worthless, it's only value is in laughing at how quickly it fluctuates

oops didn't mean to namefag

>Only maine and fucking Nebraska do this dumb shit where it actually depends on how close someone wins in order to get the votes

Holy shit you're handicapped.

That's not how it works there. They split their congressional districts into EC votes.

I think Texas should do the same thing.

It's because states regulate how their electoral votes are given out, two states decided a long time ago that they'd give the statewide winner two voters and the rest would be given to whoever won the individual districts.

If you want to understand American politics, you need to wrap your head around the fact that states have a lot of power to control themselves.

It's actually a good thing for relatively sparse states with populated cities that would push the whole state democrat every time if they didn't split them up.

If California worked like that, it would be half Republican.

Hispanics don't vote in Texas

t. texan latino

>uneducated
>new hampshire

MA bro here, basically nobody in New England is "uneducated" in the same way as the Trump uneducated demographic is uneducated.

Uneducated in NE basically means you got through high school, not like the South where uneducated means you were smoking meth at 11 and regularly pipe out your sister

LEAF OUT

>he STILL thinks drumpf stands a chance
oh my you redditers are to funny

Uneducated whites >>> spics and niggers.

Isn't that how the "uneducated" demographic is measured? I thought that it just meant that the highest education is high school or less.

>texan latino

What're you doing in Canada, AngryJoe?

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buddhism

Nebraska and Maine are the only states with split electoral votes, and I think they have delivered all votes to one candidate in every election at least for the past 50 years.

It only matters this year because libshits are shilling that Trump could lose one of Nebraska's votes (or *were* shilling, I don't think that's on the table anymore) and Trump is a paradigm-shifting candidate, so he's up like +10 for Maine's second vote.

But as I said, this almost never happens. A lot of obscure rules have come into play this year that normally have no effect on the election, especially during the primaries

Same here.

t. texas latino

most of the best proxies are canadian

A
FUCKING
LEAF

I REALLY WANT TRUMP TO WIN. I PRAY EVERYNIGHT?ENOUGH WITH HATING ON AMERICANS AND STAGNATION

Maine gives 2 of it's EC votes to whoever wins overall and the other 2 by district. So if hill gets the popular vote overall and the vote in the 1st district she gets 3 EC votes but Trump gets one from the 2nd district since he will win it.

This means that because of Maine not only can Trump win with 1 vote despite losing the popular vote, the state can force a perfect 269/269 EC tie.

I'm not canadian...

>Michigan
>blue with a completely red government

yeah, no

dumb ghettoposter

Reminder that this scenario results in a trump victory, as it would be decided by a house vote, with each state getting one vote. More red states=Trump win.

Ignorant yankee nigger detected

La familia

>chance of winning
>believing any of the shit pols released by any of these faggots

You arent even counting chickens before they hatch, you are counting chickens before they hatch, before you get the chickens to lay the eggs, let alone the roster to fertilize them, and you dont even have a coop built yet.

Yeeeeeeesss!

>Isn't that how the "uneducated" demographic is measured? I thought that it just meant that the highest education is high school or less.

I think when people say Trump attracts the "uneducated", they are referring to inbreed-tier southerners, not people with a high school education.

Maybe I'm wrong

Was "Second Amendment people" and "Obama is the founer of isis" part of his plan?

Your math is incorrect.

He's ahead in New Mexico and Colorado and they're tied in Michigan

seriously how do i embed exictedman into MY webms?

>Ignorant yankee nigger detected

>implying i am not a white man from Boston with a college degree

lol trump is so fucking autistic

>I thought that it just meant that the highest education is high school or less.

It does mean that. Truck-driving tobacco-chewing hicks in new England like to pretend that they're superior to truck-driving tobacco-chewing hicks elsewhere because of their proximity to Jew York City

Except that scenario can't happen, read the damn thread. Maine will give one point to trump so with your map he gets 270.

NH red lol ya ok

What do people mean when they say that Michigan isn't a "swing state"? Is that just some bullshit they use to rationalize not voting? We've gone both ways in the past--why wouldn't we be a swing state? What the fuck even is a swing state--one that shifts regularly?

a fucking leaf

That's simply a false statement.

i think its a lot easier to forget nv, co and nh
and just flip pa

I went to fivethirtyeight and looked at the main weighted polls they had listed for every state. I didn't use fivethirtyeight's weight, I used their grading scale though. I treated it like GPA (candidate up 4% from an agency with a B rating, that's 4x3=12) and compared all polls for that state. I only used polls that included a date within the past week with the exception of NH which only goes to 9/9. This is what the map looks like.

this is the correct map

PA is harder to flip than it seems, just because the cities there are so democratic.

>texan latino claiming he is not canadian
Ted Cruz confirmed for browsing Cred Forums

>not being yellow
Educate yourselves.

>weedorado will turn red
>one poll

Texas does a great job of assimilating beaners, for whatever reason.

getting Florida was the main things Maine will likely be next to fall in line

forgot the 1 in maine

New Mexico will not go red. It's more yellow than it is red.

New Hampshire is a swing state though.

>Literally is traditionally red
>Only goes blue when progressives actually feel bothered to go to the booths

It's only been blue since people from Massachusetts and other places started to emigrate.

Then you do it you fucking mong.
Honestly, I wouldn't even want that. Elections are like sports to me, and being able to predict so early would make it no fun.

This. Trump supporters are much more enthusiastic and will vote no matter what.

No, I don't want it to be a narrow victory. I want it to be a historical landslide that utterly crushes the left.

That would be nice, but it's not realistic.

I think it would be funnier to give them a glimpse of hope only to steal it away by the smallest margin possible and watch them chimp out.

that doesn't matter

38% Red
36% Blue
26% yellow

Red wins

>the one poll from this week is worth less than two from a month ago

Exactly. It's blue.

wait, is there seriously a chance trump could win?

[FRANCE] Illegal scum blocking the road to ambush a truck
youtube.com/watch?v=1HzrD11P7C8

>Wanting it to stop
Are you tired of winning already?

>DUDE. WEED. detected
CO is at LEAST as much in play as VA or PA this year

Honest question here; why don't the red states break away from the blue states?

Doesn't the majority of America's GDP come from those states or something? How much value adding can a bunch of degenerate pot smoking leftists add to the wheat belt and manufacturing centres?

but thats not true at all

>That would be nice, but it's not realistic.
Yes it is. There are a tremendous number of shy Trump voters out there.

Even a 3% shy Trump vote across the nation would result in an electoral landslide. Blacks would probably be the shyest of shy Trump voters, a group which Trump is making historical inroads with.

Also, most polls are weighting based on 2012 or 2008 demographics which is ludicrous. Hillary is no Obama.

A landslide is very, very possible. The key will be to watch the numbers for Virginia.

>only because of las vegas degenerates who don't pay attention to politics
WEWEWEWEW A FUCKING LEAF

Stop lie on internet. tb-h a lot of us don't speak english and almost all my hispanic friend will not vote for Trump. BTW we don't vote, it's why Texas is not a blue state

But it's still ONE poll.

Weedorado will never be red again. Never.

Texan latino here too. Can confirm, we do not vote in Texas.

>Boston
Faggot

Doesn't really matter, doesn't tip it.

wtc one of those jackets

>Similar colors
Who does this shit.

Some of us already tried that and it didn't go too well

PA is not going red. Trump needs NV and NH and the Maine district. That is a plausible path.

PA is a crapshoot and pretty likely to put Slick Willy back in the WH.

Does anyone else here feel that the election will be rigged regardless?

I think the electronic voting machines will be programmed to give Clinton a slight victory in all the states that matter.

Try again.

The vast, vast majority of economy is in blue states.

GOYIM ENOUGH IS ENOUGH
THEY CAN'T KEEP GETTING AWAY WITH THIS

>look ma I posted it again!

OY VEY, ANTI-SEMITE, SHUT IT DOWN, OY GEVALT

Unfortunately most of our economic activity is in cities which are always blue.

Do you guys honestly think electronic voting wont rig the election?

What evidence is there that electronic voting isn't going to steal it?

Who is going to investigate? The Democrats? HA

Blue states have far greater % of GDP than red states do.

exactly this
clinton is also leading only by five or less points in wisconsin, michigan, virginia, pennsylvania, rhode island, and new hampshire

> literally Texas > literally Louisiana i can keep going

Nah, Trump is unquestionably winning with all education levels except college degrees. People with "some college" still prefer Trump on average.

Actually no.

I feel like the panic over Trump is because he happened before they had the rigging set up. Like by 2020-24 they'd have had the internet voting Soros wants, after Jeb! lost due to being Jeb!

Now they have to rely on more classic voting fraud like multiple voting and illegal immigrants.

>what evidence is there that something doesn't exist

tinfoil hats fuck off

The nice thing about the internet is that we don't get to hear each other, because I'm imagining what this sounds like in a Boston accent.

>Emplyen ahm naht a white mahn frum BAWwst'n with uh cawwlidge dehgree

I agree. My gf and I registered specifically to vote Fuhrer Trump

>no paper trail
>already proven how easy it is
>laws specifically set up to allow it that go against any sense of common sense when it comes to computer systems design
>already shown to have happened in the democrat primary with paperless states outperforming exit polls by nato-intervention levels

>He thinks Johnson voters will make it to the polls

Blue state economies are based more around services and informations while red states have the majority of manufacturing, energy production, and agriculture. So while blue GDP is technically higher, Red has the advantage in a split scenario as far as sustainability.

They dont compete with CA, NY, VA, PA, IL. Look at the numbers. This is shifting some as places like AZ FL and GA are growing faster than other states. AZ is actually pretty powerful now. Make your comment in 20 years and youll be right.

For now, you are as delusional as Hillary.

VA would still be red if PA would stop sending their fucking filth down here

Ugh sorry. Meant for

shilling must be hard huh kid. ca is the only one you listed with an power sorry m8

Ah this brings back the memories, the Primaries were such a blast and the memes were the dankest yet. Can't wait for election night.

I like it -- you've got some methodology going and not just wild-ass guessing. Only quibble I have is Michigan; latest polls put Trump within the margin of error and Clinton has lost big ground there in the past 30 days. Nearly every bit of the shift came from independents moving to Trump.

Michigan will flip because Detroit alone a dem mayor runs Detroit and we see how that is working

>2015 GDP CA, NY, IL, PA, NJ (top 5 North states)
5.94 billion

>2015 GDP TX, FL, NC, GA, IN (top 5 South states)
3.87 billion

35% smaller. confedefags btfo

I want it to be obvious from the first results that he has won, something like him sweeping New England or winning New York.

That way we get the whole night of the media and twitter going full meltdown.

>CA
>North

blue then you pedantic faggot

An electoral tie brings it to the house and they choose the President. The House is Republican so they'll choose Trump

>t. Someone who doesn't know VA
NoVa and Richmond will fuck us like always

literally California and NY are the only saving grace

The probability percentage on the top of OPs pic gives ME 2nd to Trump, it's just not shown on the picture.

Kike go to the now cast, Bronze rigged the other models.

and those are the most solid blue yankee states possible. we fucked you once and we could do it again.

Niggers and spics don't care enough to vote for their state governments. New England has a bunch of red governers, but they all are always blue.

Alright

STOP

probably be like your Germany and were Russia

>its a "chance of winning" fantasy opinion stats thread

Whats the best way to turn 1-5 point spread into a 30 point spread?

I'm scared, Cred Forums.

Does he actually have a good chance at winning?

I don't want to even imagine Hillary as President.

>(((538)))

Denverfag here. Colorado has a good chance of going red. They capped our magazines back in 2013 and since then anyone who is even slightly conservative leaning has been PISSSSSSED.

I actually expect record republican turnout for Colorado this election.

He does.