Starting to get awfully close

this is fucking insane
what a fucking comeback

I believe the polls aren't accurate.

I also believe as someone posted a while ago on pol that before the debates the polls will show trump winning and after the debate they'll go back to showing hillary winning.

(you)

he will win NM, PA and MI

so its over

Maybe.

...

nate is a meme

guys... kek is here

Also, weren't the polls rigged to favor the crooked one?
They would actually be equal if that was the case.

>NBC
isn't that the same pollster who gives clinton like +17 when everyone else is like +2?

Wouldn't it be a shame if Clinton got woozy, or started coughing up a storm on the debate stage? That'd just be terrible.

Of course he is his only accomplishment was the Obama predictions and really he didn't even do those well of the 6 swing states he got like 4 of them everything else is solid red or blue. People pretended like him saying Obama gets California is difficult to guess.

NBC is the one that told us Ted Cruz was leading Donald Trump by two points nationally this year. Literally the only pollster to have claimed that in 2016.

nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/surprise-trump-falls-behind-cruz-national-nbc-wsj-poll-n520296

Man, this is just fucking unfair. Hillary can almost completely stop campaigning, she can cancel her 200-people rallies, avoid the press to shoot shit with rich celebrities, while Trump is busting his ass doing 453 rallies per day, visiting Mexico, appearing in shows etc. and SHE'S STILL FUCKING AHEAD.

Fucking female privilege, unbelievable.

...

More serious:

PA/VA/MI/WI seems to be for Clinton, and FL, NC, OH & NV for Trump.

So it's will be decided by CO, who is somewhat democrate no ?

For being "literally hitler" like so many outlets call him, I'd say he is doing good.

Why doesnt he have the seperate nebraska/maine

Lol wasn't it like 8% for trump a week ago?

The fact that its not a sudden increase is more concerning for clinton, that suggests peoples minds becoming made up not some knee jerk reaction.

Trump's behind like 5 in Virginia right now. He can catch up.

This city doesn't know what's coming.
She doesn't feel the heat.
This city won't know what hit her;
What knocked her out into the street.

Yes Nate Feces thought that

This is weird, I just visited 538 and the split is 56/43 for Hillary. Did you inspect source op?

...

>Iowa safe red
Thanks kek

OP is using the now-cast model

Assuming Trump takes everything he should, he'll be at 266 (Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, Iowa, Maine's floating vote).

If he does that, he just needs one of New Hampshire, Colorado, New Mexico, Michigan, Virginia, Wisconsin, or even just a tiny eastern state like Rhode Island or Maine to seal the deal.

Not all that tall of an order, especially given how well he does with white people.

Of course they're nervous.

Her health has gone to shit, and the DNC has been having meetings to come up with a contingency plan.

Trump is winning in the rigged (((polls))), and he will win the election.

MAGA

Drumpf has no viable path to victory.

Colorado and NH seem to be the easiest

And many Colorado ppl polling for Johnson may swap to Trump and then he fuckin wins no problem

>all he has to do is win the states where he's favored + ANY blue

no path confirmed fucking retard

>the enthusiasm gap
this is really all you need to know about that
washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/09/19/hillary-clintons-looming-turnout-problem/

It's made even worse given the disdain that millennials have for Clinton, as well as new voter registration and party switching strongly favoring Trump.

Her not being black probably isn't going to help her numbers when compared to Obama, and Hispanics are in states that aren't competitive.

Remember people push #Justice4haiti. That gets hillary nice and down whilst the oversight focusses on emails

>polls swap anyway
>drumpf is just that bad, g-g-goyim

Nate Silver had every single state right in the 2012 election and his forecasts are kind of telling, especially in the last weeks before the election.

itT: WE BULLY NATE

someone post the one where he has JUST hair

He's actually already ahead. He could also win NM, NJ, RI, PA, IL, and VA. Possibly even more. But yeah, no path to victory, because he's orange and we don't like him am I right?

I forgot to add WI, MI, and NH. But yeah no path to victory

CO?

How long until Nate finally marks Maine, New Mexico, and Rhode Island as tipping points?

He won't win Florida. Also Colorado, trumpcuck confirmed.

He's ahead in CO by 4 points last time I checked.

Isn't he tied or ahead in New Mexico and Colorado? Recent polls also have Michigan, Virginia and Wisconsin tight.

Your ID is almost not nonsense

Watching the BREXIT votes come in live gave me alot of hope in the election
Wasnt BREXIT behind by a decent margin the night before the vote?

>literally winning the florida polls rigged against him
>he won't win florida

Not at all. This is all part of her diabolical scheme

Trump will win Florida. Florida hates Hillary, only old Jews and bitties will vote for her. The Hispanics here are pretty supportive of Trump thanks to based Cubans.

literally fishing for you's at this point

...

9:1 odds in favour of Remain as the vote was being announced.

Polls massively underestimated 1) the shy tory factor and 2) voter enthusiasm, and both of these factors play heavily in favour of Trump.

october they'll be neck and neck, i don't think trump will soar higher, nov will be the final surge

>polls rigged against him
This is a very significant thing to keep in mind - When he's ahead by 5 points, he's actually ahead by 10 or more.

But no path to victory everyone. He already has 270 secured and can win about 10 more states on top of that - but no path to victory.

and nh

from what i understand 269|269 is basically a trump win

>he won't win florida
>he won't win one of the closest races in the 2012 election
Romney almost won florida and he wasn't doing nearly as well as Trump. Trump will win every single state Romney did plus more. Florida is pretty much the most likely swing state to vote for Trump except for maybe Ohio.

Nate is an idiot

Republicans are continuously underpolled going back to at least 1980, producing weird polling which had Clinton winning 50% of the vote in 1992 when he only won something like 44% and Reagan beating Carter by only 3% when he won by 10% in 1980.

Trying to judge 2016 on 2012 polling is wrong because in years Democrats are favored of course polls which sample more Democrats will be correct.

The 2016 polls which have Hillary leading outside of a margin of error typically oversample Democrats by a wide margin.

...

>North Carolina, Florida, and Ohio
>Default red

not quite.

...

He's also up 11 in Maine's 2nd District and ties in the state at large, has a shot at NH, and is within the margin of error in fucking RI and NJ. MOTHER FUCKING RHODE ISLAND AND NEW JERSEY.

I've said it before, but if I was Clinton just the thought of him being competitive there already would have me sweating fucking bullets. I mean God damn those are supposed to be SOLID blue states.

He's polling a lot better in Ohio than in Florida, depending on the samples being used there he could easily be up by 10 in Ohio.

Listen silly burgers, this election is rigged and fixed, period. Let's face it, you only have to look at the trend line to see that it's one big facade. They mysteriously portray Trump to be gaining ground. Just like the last their lines crossed. Your obese hero will be annihilated in the debates, everything will be spinned against him in the media, and Trump will drop to below 40% in the polls, trailing Clinton. Badly.

>the eternal leaf

Just shut the fuck up you annoying shitposter, we don't have time to write an entire essay every time you post something faggy like "hmmmmmmm I don't think Arizona will go for Drumpf".

Pretty sure it goes to congress when that happens (which is Republican majority). I would love to see that happen. Could you imagine the butthurt from Hillary supporters?

youtube.com/watch?v=WZl2udKDG3g
Just imagine this but times ten, and a trigglypuff style person doing it.

Michigan reporting in. Our white people here are fucking stupid. We will disappoint you. I am sorry :'(

Hillary spent WAY more money campaigning than Trump

>this much focus on polls

Do we even do this in Europe? For Brexit we had some chanting about odds, but usually they'd just invite a somewhat knowledgeable guest speaker and that would be it. Their method of applying smallish input to entire populations seems to be a complete crock of shit, what methods do they even use and what part of statistics would I have to start at to understand how they think it is a valid method? Inferential statistics?

>Pretty sure it goes to congress when that happens (which is Republican majority). I would love to see that happen. Could you imagine the butthurt from Hillary supporters?

especially if she get more popular vote.

As far as I know you don't have elections that go on for a year and a half either.

My father and older brother were making constant jokes and laughing about it the whole day, about oh look at this though, the bookies have it at 9:1.

So smug, so fucking up themselves, laughed all the way down to the booths.

I didn't even mention Brexit the next day, let alone rub the result in their fucking faces like they rubbed all their precious rigged polls and (((experts))) in mine, but they still would snap and shout at me for no reason.

Fuck liberals. Fuck their supposed acceptance and equal fair treatment. I can't wait till Trump wins. Can't wait till Geert wins. I now actively pray to Kek for more happenings, and love every second of the mudslimes giving us more ammo.

I was never a racist before this, but genuinely all the desperate lying and covering up of BLM being fucking ambulance-blocking niggers, or muslims butchering pregnant women in the streets, has made it so I have no patience or empathy for them whatsoever, and I feel like that's the same with a lot of people.

Maybe if the left would actually discuss issues, then there would be more middle ground, more centre solutions to things. But demonising anyone who disagrees, and hiding the truth like this has only made unhappy people into full on nazis who want to cleanse the world of niggers and muslims.

Yeah I think he'll win Ohio for sure. Florida definitely seems like it's leaning red this year though. I was also considering the fact that he completely booty blasted Rubio in his own state during the primaries which is testament to how well he's liked their. I mean even Kasich managed to hold on to his own state.

polling is just a way to avoid talking about policy. Some polls matter, but it's easier to talk about the newest poll than what the candidates are actually saying.

It's just another way to shape public opinion

Republicans are not underpolled you dunce, polls commonly poll more Democrats because there are more registered Democrats than Republican. Also, I've seen Trump losing in polls that sampled more Rs...Hell, he's been getting his ass kicked in Rasmussen polls all summer too

((((polls)))) are just kikes trying to manufacture a narrative. they repeat it over and over and over. it's nothing new to lying kikes. pic related.

yesss

Trump wins one in Maine, so this is an unlikely outcome.

or new hampshire (he'll get one electoral vote from maine so that and nh whill put him at 270)

savage

more like:

Ehh, that's partly this election cycle too. There's so much mudslinging and so many gaffes from both camps that the average American only has a vague idea of either candidate's policy.

Keep it up, entertaining! Just don't admit Trump has it won. No suspense in the truth.

>Force the single most unliked politician through as the rigged establishment pick
>Act surprised when people are unenthusiastic for her
What did they think would happen?

You're assuming the GOP is 100% down with Donald Trump, which simply isn't true. Not sure how the Congress vote goes, but if ballots are cast in secret you can't assume a thing.

Polls are not done to gauge public opinion, but instead to sway it. How else can a Hillary justify staying in the race, and ask for more money?

>CO
>NV
>AZ

You're forgetting one thing, and that's that a Republican Congressman who votes to give Clinton the presidency automatically loses his seat next election. They won't even make it past the primary.

Those that would even consider it like their seats more than they hate Trump.

What did Nate Silverberger mean by this?

Whats gonna stop a big drop after the first presidential debate, like we saw after the RNC?

ID

The second presidential debate

The DNC not being able to dance on a dead muslim soldier? And Trump not saying something stupid about it?

>inb4 he'll destroy himself again
he's shown great restrain since

>mfw NBC comes out with a hill dog +5 poll with a 4.9 margin of error.

Who fucking cares? Next monday drumpf will be exposed as the MORON he is on NATIONAL TELEVISION

Debates usually don't have that big of an impact on the election, but Trump has the advantage of low expectation. He will win them if he doesn't literally call Hillary a cunt or doesn't say too many stupid things policy-wise.

thanks for correcting the record

He needs to hold on to those states though. Trump needs to stop doing rallies constantly and focus on preparing for the debates where he is certain to get grilled from all angles.

on a scale of 1-10, 10 being the Wall, how puckered is your butthole?

You're right
If he speaks like he's been doing recently at his rallies i think he'll do great.
I think the rallies are just important, especially with Hillary taking naps all the time, how much more can he really prepare for the debates anways?

looks like trump is building a wall

NBC seems like they have the same house sampling error that LA/USC has but in reverse.

Thank you for correcting the record.

>gas ma yet?

Gee I wonder who could be behind this post?

in his defense not a single poll before michigan's primary showed bernie leading or even within 5

I agree. Just to add Drumfkins, if you're so sure you're gonna win why not WALK THE TALK and not vote? Sit out the election and prove how right you are

If Gary Johnson wins New Mexico from Clinton the election could be sent into the house. He's at 25% in the state and probably only needs 34% to win. Could get exciting folks

Let me tell you about your country

That works both ways.

>pic related.

pic related is pretty fucking stupid. What is it trying to prove even?

Well, unlike (You) I understand polling and math. My state is solidly blue so I'm not voting either.

>gasmayet

>tfw the beautiful trump rise we've seen for the past week is about to get (((corrected))) by the new polls

i know it means nothing but it's still sad to see

Only the Ann Arbor cucks

Why do you care if you ask me who ever wins we are still on our way to shit city

Nate? Is that you? WHAT HAPPENED IN MICHIGAN, CLINTON HAD A 99% CHANCE OF WINNING THE PRIMARY IN MICHIGAN. THE POLLS WERE 22% OFF!

We're red in Virginia. If you think we will vote for Clinton because Kaine is on the ticket, you're innocent.

I think I'm gonna puke

It's just too nerve wracking at this point

Not Nate, but I actually do live in the same state he does.

With Michigan all the polls are undersampling the youth voter. For some reason Bernie outperform Obama in 08 and 12' turnout in under 30 demographics

the end of America

Nate has a pretty good track record, but he did say after the primaries he was wrong about predict IMG trump not winning and he has no idea what's going on this time

new polls from today were pretty shit, the witch is up +5 florida and +5 overall. bitch literally gets dragged into a van and ppl still vote for her. trump needs to destroy her at the debates or hes finished

I'm getting fucking nervous.
I don't want to see Trump fail now, this is honestly the last hope for america to elect a non-democrat.

this

Trump doesn't even want to win.
That's why he's basically a caricature of a "dumb republican"

Massachusetts being out of the picture could certainly help Trump

Massachusetts confirmed dieded

Clinton is winning all the states that matter. Trump has no shot in hell of winning the electoral college, and that's all that matters.

Gas Romney!

It's unfortunate, but at rump has no chance whatsoever. It's actually impossible for him to win.

in b4 more dem oversampled polls.

Fucking love that album - 5/7 post user

Too much fraud in PA. NM is a maybe, MI is a strong possibility. Michigan was an unexpected miracle that brought Bernie back to life. I'm in Mich and I ain't seeing many Hillary signs compared to many for Trump. And all this in the face of the very vocal "you're a racist" bullshit. Nogs aren't excited about her at all, they were all boners up for O in 08 and 12.

It's now Trump's election to lose. These polls are before the muzzie attack. That alone probably bumped Trump by another 2%.

Really at this point all he needs to do is not fuck up the debates and he's got this in the bag.

>(((538)))

wasn't this like 97% to 3% a few weeks ago?

10/10 post

>Trump has no shot in hell of winning the electoral college, and that's all that matters.
>all that matters
if I were to ask a liberal 16 years ago about their feelings on the electoral college, how would they respond?

Probably

HUH? What's that?

And that's the problem. Gotta get people educated on what actually matters.

They're sweating bullets. Most of the (((polls) are assuming Hillary will get Obama's turnout and Trump will get Romney's. And that's the one's the don't just assume half of all voters are Democrats.

Polls weighted this hard are showing Trump winning. This is going to be a slaughter, especially after the debates.

Oooohhhh, don't turn your back on the city.

Oooohhhh, don't turn your back on the city.

Oooohhhh, don't turn your back on the city.
Say a prayer for all the children still sleeping.
Oooohhhh, don't turn your back on the city.
Say a prayer for all the fathers who still remember.
Oooohhhh, don't turn your back on the city.
Say a prayer for all the girls who've learned to stand up.
Oooohhhh, don't turn your back on the city.
Say a prayer for all the boys who won't surrender.

Sometimes I just wanna drive until the streets run out.
I wanna burn until there's nothing left to burn about.
This city's waiting for a better day,
And when I get back there will be hell to pay.
If I'm the only one left here I will not be afraid to fight,
I'm breaking out of here tonight.

so hes basically useless?

Yep
God bless memes

Actually it's not close at all. NBC just did an online smartpoll with likely voter turnout weighing that puts Clinton up 10 points nationally and has her winning virtually every swing state. Sorry Drumpftards, you lose.

>republicans
>ever winning after 2005

Keep dreaming. America will become Brazil-tier in a few decades.

welp I'm convinced. time to #splintforclint

All according to plan

So you weren't even around for the 2000 election? Cred Forums really is full of children nowadays.

Avoid the Khan episode and he will be fine

>we have multiple polls showing it's a close race
>BUT THIS ONE POLL SHOWS ITS LANDSLIDE LOSS FOR TRUMP

???

we want trump to win you retard,but he simply can't when 40% of his country are shitskins and the rest are mostly cucks.

Is there a graph displaying the changing odds of the election over time?

I want to see that trend line go from 0.001% trump to 47.9% and above.

...

Truth be told, one or two months ago trump was lurking around at 4% on that poll, or there-abouts.

Back then too, some CTR-Shill kept posting it thrice a day.
Sage and move on, redditors.

It's going up every minute

At this rate he's gonna be President

The whole world is getting nervous mate. And I'm loving every second of it.

SHADILAY
SHADILAY
LA MIA LIBERTA

WITNESSED

based potato

YES, PRAISE KEK

Trump's gonna win so hard we don't even need to vote. Besides, I hate having to interact with normies. Let's just stay here and get comfy, Cred Forums style!

Fucking hell Nate stop this.

You did this shit with Romney and look what happened.

...

...

>t. CTR shill

shadilay shadilay
i am kek
obey me

>using pepe (and by proxy meme magic) for nefarious purposes
punishable by death desu

What does shadilay mean in mulignan-speak?

...

Yeah, and NBC is a reliable source, considering under 30% of the voting population listen to a word of what they say, with slightly less than half of that believing it.
Cool. You agree to do the same? Then when we both do actually vote but only I get called out for utter horseshit neither of us will bring this up, right? Just making sure we're playing with the same stacked deck. Hey, speaking of name changes, how's ((((Jon Leibowitz)))) doing with the name that he chose to change rather than what he was born into?

If anything it just goes to show how polls have been skewed towards Clinton's favor all along.

Those digits

Hahahaha fuck, I haven't looked at the numbers in a while. Just, kek. Last time I checked trump was at 25 and even then I thought well, polls can be deceiving, trump will still have a good turn out. But now, fuck. Hes gonna have an epic epic epic turn out, isn't he

...

>mfw MA
>mfw Trump would win if we disappeared

oy vey remember the Massholes

He's ahead in those states

Essentially. All he does is look at polls and determines who's winning from them. You don't have to be a genius to do that.

>starting to get nervous
They have been frantic ever since we started hitting back with the Sick Hillary story. They have been in red alert mode since her great fall on 9/11. A lot of them probably know, deep down, that it's over, and it's only a matter of time before the rest of the voting base realizes it.

It seems that Trump always earns his lead the hard way. Then, the moment he surpasses Sick Hillary, the media will slander him or the polling agencies will "fix" the polls so he's no longer favored. There's not enough time for a new narrative before the first debate. Next Monday, the election will be decided.

Oh good Nate Argon is saying Trump will win now. Glad he is the absolute authority on this and doesn't bullshit his gay graphs throughout the whole election up until the day before the election.

Not if they're as strong as we believe they are. If we have true democracy they are getting increasingly nervous but we know machines can be rigged

I can't believe anyone takes his fucking predictions seriously. He injects so much bias it's unreal, especially with this election.
The only people that give a shit about his maps are leddit users because they look nice.

Honestly I know every election people blow everything out of proportion, but it really does feel like this time America is going to swing its course violently in one direction or another. Regardless of who wins, there will be a shitstorm and it won't be over quickly.

He'll show you, but only if you buy him a new house.

Doubly confirmed.