>Trump 39
>Clinton 37
Sample:
>41% Democrat
>13% Independent
>34% Republican
Real proportions for the country:
>42% Independent (which Trump wins YUGE)
>28% Democrat
>28% Republican
>tfw we've won but people won't see it until it happens
realclearpolitics.com
Self bump so a shill can try to explain this one away.
friendly bump.
also, who is this penis venus?
this, god damn son
>it's real
he's turning the whole thing on it's head
Trump will win!
Not a shill, but elections are decided by electoral college, not popular vote. This will still give Clinton a win.
she's voting for our Don
Based on what? Obama won in a landslide last time and only won by like 5%. Trump is going to win by 15% or more. Turnout for him is going to vastly exceed hers. Only delusion argues with this.
>argument based on the assumption that things will massively change
As they are now, two points up in the popular doesn't mean anything serious.
I'm sorry that you couldn't understand the whole point of my first post. They're not polling based on reality. They're polling Democrats VERY heavily and he's still winning. Even if you ran the vote right now, he'd win. He's going to destroy her in all three debates.
Which polling agency is the least tampered right now?
I see what you mean now, sorry. Regardless, if poling was corrected he might pick up another 3% in pop vote? Surely 5% up is something, but the fact remains that it has little effect on the electoral college, in which Democrats have a huge starting advantage.
I have no idea because it seems like every single one calls Dems at like +50% of what represents the country and I have no idea why that is. Do Republicans just tell the poll callers to fuck off? There has to be an explanation but it's definitely not that Dems outnumber Republicans 5:3 or 2:1 and it's definitely not that Independents are only 13% of the nation. The results are always complete trash but they publish them anyways with these completely bullshitted MoEs. It's amazing.
Oh I thought you were just shilling. Yeah, it's fair to consider that the boosts might be coming from already red states but we're not that divided. If you look at individual state polling, he's winning pretty much every swing state now and has several states like NJ, WI, and MI on the edge. She has no way of gaining on him without him fucking up majorly while he knows that this is the point at which Romney blew it and always mocks him for it. There's no way he'll crash now.
I've been thinking that maybe 'lean democrat' and 'lean republican' are counted as dem and rep in the summary, but as independents in the general election.
On the edge isn't enough. He has to win nearly every swing state to get the edge of the Democrat wall states. Even a 5% boost in the popular polling won't cut it I don't think. Losing by 3% in PA is the same as losing by 15%.
Really, he need to hit it home at the debates to have a chance.
Certainly possible that it's not enough right now but he's spreading his message hard to the black communities and elsewhere and taking massive chunks of her support. He went form like 1% polling with blacks to 20% this week. Hard to say what that will look like in each major city in the general but he did it early enough for the message to spread in those communities. If he even takes 10% of the black vote consistently in the battleground states, that's easily enough to put him over given that those votes will have all been drained from Hillary.
This could be it but even with that in mind they oversampled Dems by 15% relative to Republicans when both parties have roughly the same number of people. Also consider that Republicans had massive turnout in the primaries, much more than in recent elections. Obama is sweating profusely.
sweet tits Reuters Ipsos says trump is winning, despite changing their questions, and despite oversampling democrats*? Shit.
*Yes I know, democrats are normally over sampled because they are more likely to vote.
as if clinton was ever anything even close to progressive
15% is hyperbole.
not impossible, highly improbable. i think he wins the popular vote by around 6% (due to voter fraud)
but we are going to need something bad to happen to Hillary for him to win the electoral college. winning by 6% would most likely create a contested outcome, so I would guess that Trump takes the presidency after all is said and done.
wait, I thought you all were saying the polls are rigged.
Surely him winning now in them doesn't change that narrative, right Cred Forums?
Sorry guys, not after that Romney election.
>oversampled Dems by 15% relative to Republicans
How did you get that number? I see that 27% were registered republicans and 34% were registered democrats. The newest gallup (august) suggests the real number to be 27% rep to 31% dem. Within variance, I would say.
The polls are rigged. He's winning the rigged polls right now.
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i want my cock inside that semon demon
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If doo ables, i will get to fuck her or a slut similar this year
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NOOOO
But i want to fuck that tight pussy, will kek grant me my wishes?
praise kek
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its been determined...
That was my mistake. I was thinking of a diff poll I was looking at earlier that showed 44% seeing the Democratic Party positively and only 29% seeing the Republican Party positively. That's also obviously not set in stone because a lot of people hate the Republican establishment but it doesn't appear to account for the fact that the Dems blatantly and openly rigged their primary. I have a feeling that more Dems are butthurt for Bernie than Republicans are for losing to Trump especially now that he has Pence.
Still, the 34-27 split doesn't account for all of those lost Independent voters. Even if you tally in "lean"ers, Independents are well short of their actual size as a group and Trump wins them by 10-20% in every poll. Maybe him winning by 15% right now is not realistic but he'd win by at least 5-10 and that will go up after a few beatdowns on live TV.
Isn't there some correlation between massively winning the popular vote and winning the EC? Like they always talk about bellwether counties predicting outcomes, and people are always saying "if PA turns red then it's over because MI and IL will too!"
Plz respond
>Even if you tally in "lean"ers, Independents are well short of their actual size as a group
For me it says 14% independent + 12% none/dont know + 7% lean rep + 7% lean dem = 40%. Close, and even higher, than gallups 37% independents.
12% don't know is much greater than the 2-3% I was seeing consistently for months up to the beginning of summer. Wondering now why 10% of the country would forget what their values are.
Yes. Bush vs Gore was the only time the popular vote winner didn't match the EC winner since 1888, and the popular vote difference was 0.5%. It's fair to say that generally the winner of the popular vote wins the EC as well.
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I actually left the thread because there was very little discourse. Thank you for bumping, guy.
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just dumping photoshop bot folder, love that thing
I just assumed cgi
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Is this the most important election in history?
look at the latest NBC poll giving Hillary +7
they asked respondents how they voted in 2012, they got 47 Obama to 33 Romney, 14 point difference... actual results of 2012 election 51% to 47%, only 4 point difference... Obviously they over-sampled democrats by at least 10 points...
They also sampled Women 53% to 47%, and Clinton comes just 7% ahead?
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Oh please drumpfag, this isn't the first time trump pulled ahead.
Don't worry, he''ll say something retarded and everything will go back as it should be
yeah if you look at the way they are breaking down the samples it's a joke and thinking that Clinton is going to have Obama turnout levels is laughable
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you got that right. Dems aren't going to see that again.
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I hope you kill yourself when Trump wins. Seriously. Your death would make the world a better place. It makes me feel great knowing that your queen will soon be brutally ass raped in front of 100 million people. Maybe slit your wrists during the debate?
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I can't wait for all the celebrities that said they were going to move, we all know they won't!
He can't really say anything more inflammatory than what he said in the beginning and he has softened his rhetoric since. If we were willing to tolerate him then and hand him a landslide in the primaries, it's unlikely that anything he does between now and November will negatively impact his chances.
The sad thing really is, I am a conservative and a constitutionalist, Trump really isn't either but he will certainly do a better job than Illary, and we can fucking uncuck the Supreme Court
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Oh I don't really mean saying something too "bad" so much as having a WTF moment of some kind which she is infinitely more likely to have happen. The odds of something serious happening to her due to health or scandal is much higher than it is for him. He knows he's squeaky clean or else he wouldn't be running.
I hate the size of the federal government too but at this point the best path to defeating the beast is getting an outsider in, showing people how much better things can be, and educating them...not in a college indoctrination way obviously. As much as I call myself a Libertarian, I understand that free trade on its own and border enforcement are two issues killing the nation that a Libertarian would never touch. We need nationalistic Libertarianism, as oxymoron as that sounds: small federal gov't but what it does it does very effectively.
Nice proxy, Canada.
Yes.
The NBC poll is obvious trash. I don't know who we can say is polling most reliably but we can certainly say NBC is on the other end of that spectrum.
It's just not going to happen.
and I'm spent for now......... MAGA everyone don't forget to Vote early and often
We didn't need trips to confirm that one but it's funny regardless.
States don't usually vote for a candidate that the popular vote voted against, when it does happen, it is because the margins were very close. OP is insinuating that Trump has a massive lead when you take into account the real proportions of the country. If a candidate has 60% or more of the popular vote, I don't think it feasible that they could lose the electoral college.
Even 50% of the vote is likely way too much to overcome given that several points go to third party candidates. If Trump cracks 50% in the general, it's pretty much guaranteed that he wins. Reminder that in 2000, both candidates had roughly 48%. Swing 2% in either direction and it's almost certainly over.