Based on past voting trends, demographics, and primary results, I don't see Trump taking Nevada, Ohio, or Pennsylvania (decreasing order of likelihood); states necessary for Trump to break even - even Iowa and North Carolina look iffy. I think Florida is in the bag considering he smashed Rubio in his home state, destroyed Jeb, state polls, and the genuine support he seems to have there.
However, Trump getting 269 or 270 is extremely unlikely. Normies only know him as a "racist" and a "bigot" without knowing anything about his platform. It doesn't help that Trump has been very shaky and flip floppy on many issues like abortion, health insurance, and fiscal policy; in his defense, almost no candidate has, but since he's challenging the incumbent party, it's necessary he define his positions better.
This racist demagogue, media-inflated portrayal of Trump is extremely hurtful to his chances of winning the presidency. He also failed to unify the party at the RNC by not garnering endorsements of consequence and that disastrous Ted Cruz speech. Trump NEEDS to establish that he stands by EVERY american, whether white or black, gay or bi, catholic or muslim. He needs to not backpedal on his strong immigration policy (to which he sort of has), but instead remind americans that there's a difference between strong immigration policy and racism or isolationism.
The good news is that genuine support for Hillary is low and even normies aren't convinced that she's trustworthy or competent based on a storied history of scandals, poor tenure as secretary of state, and poor health conditions. However, despite the wiki-leaks and even being investigated for a felony (a fucking felony) during a presidential campaign, she's still up in the polls! If that doesn't shake your confidence in Trump, I don't know what will. There are also very powerful (((forces))) against Trump like Google, Facebook, CNN, MSNBC, and jewlywood.
Trump NEEDS to act presidential. This populist, boisterous meme personality he rode in on through the primaries was great but he needs to shift gears. He needs to become a staple; show himself as a safe candidate with a good temperament that could lead America responsibly into war if need be and can secure a better future. If he continues the way he has then he'll only appeal to his diehard voterbase and get swept in the general election.
I honestly think it may be too late for Trump with only a month and a half till the election. The first debate will be the most important and he'll have to show a radical change in demeanor to salvage his chances. Also the time and money he's been investing into his campaign has kind of fallen off a cliff after he secured the nomination, which may mean he doesn't have much confidence in winning.
Logan Gomez
>UHHHH... UMMM UHHHH HAHAHAHA A FUCKING LEAF AHHAHAHAHAHAHHA STUPID LEAF TRUMP IS LITERALLY INVINCIBLE >Cred Forums BTFO
Carter Taylor
>a fucking leaf
Jacob Russell
I believe he will win Ohio.
Ayden Butler
All he needs is Nevada Ohio and Colorado, all of which he is currently favored it. GTFO leaf, you know nothing.
Andrew Moore
I like your map but you still need to get in the basket.
Jack Barnes
Clinton will win. Cred Forumstards still not realizing kek is a god of chaos and he just wants those livestream suicides from trump supporters
Hudson Adams
race war now
Sebastian Thomas
...
Jeremiah Bailey
I hope Trump wins, but my gut feeling has always been that Hillary will take it
Jonathan Butler
Then how come FiveThirtyEight, a political blog made by an UNASHAMED liberal, has Trump winning in Nevada and Ohio?
I think he could pull it off, there could be lower turnout for Hillary supporters too like there was with young people during the referendum here.
Debate on Monday could increase his support, that's what I'm hoping for
Julian Howard
>TRUMP CAN'T WIN OHIO OR NEVADA >ignores the fucking polls >hasn't read the internals
Hillary is losing not only union households in Ohio, but she performs about 10 points worse with whites than Obama. Trump is polling 31% with hispanics in Nevada and Hillary again is doing worse with whites than Obama.
Delete your account.
Oliver Morales
...
Ayden Phillips
i think historic trends are the best indicator. For Nevada, 40% of registered voters are dems while 33% are repubs. Also 26% of the population is hispanic. They also voted for Obama in 08 and 12. Soooo that spread means fuck all, its gonna go dem.
Ohio, same shit voted for Obama 08 and 12. Also, Kasich beat Trump by more than 10 pts in Ohio while Hillary beat Sanders by 14 pts. Ohio is also a socially liberal northern state, so I see a very low chance of Trump taking it.
William Martinez
Kill yourself
Ethan Anderson
Damn, really makes you think...
Jeremiah Ross
He's taking MI sooner than WI. Sooner than PA for that matter. Also you forgot to put NH red.
Aiden Price
Obama won Union Households by 60-37 in 2012. Hillary is losing Union households to Trump in Fox News poll and near tied in Bloomberg.
Clinton can't win Ohio without Union households, which are meant to be a Democratic stronghold
John Martinez
No this BTFO's the leaf
Any map showing Trump not winning Ohio is a garbage mememap
Cooper Gonzalez
>>i think historic trends are the best indicator
And that's why you're a fucking retard, 2012 happened because Romney was a charmless moron who was actively insulting his own base at every conceivable opportunity. That and Obama had a certain awkward charm about him and was also the guy who ordered Bin laden killed.
The only thing the Shill has is her vagina and that isn't enough.
Asher Nelson
I have a feeling Detroit will stop him from taking Michigan, I hope I'm wrong though
>Depending on past trends Is what floored everyone and lead to Trump being in his current position. Learning from the past and obsessing over it aren't the same.
Owen Garcia
How can Clinton win Ohio without Union households?
Dylan Reed
People forget the electorate changed like over fucking night from 2004 to 2008.
Lucas Cook
Copying 538, how creative
Jaxson Rodriguez
>Based on past voting trends
Will you fuck off with this shit? Obama is not running for president. The demographic turnout he got was unprecedented. You should be using midterms in your calculations if you want a more realistic result.
Blake Howard
>NV, OH, CO, NH Blue kill yourself leaf
Jordan Mitchell
She can't, we are being memed.
Aiden Green
People gave up voting in 2014, maybe the same could happen again but midterms always favor GOP
Jace King
Oh - this guy thinks the Presidential Election is a beauty contest.
Luis Martin
>historic trends are the best indicator Then Obama wouldn't have won Virginia in '08. >Kasich beat Trump by more than 10 pts in Ohio Who would have thought somebody would do well in their home state?
Jack Clark
That's 270towin, 'cap and gown.'
Dylan Baker
Detroit is < 7% of Michigan... and I'd argue an even lower % of actual voters.
However, the state is plague by people who, ugh, hate their parents for raising them in a tranquil all-white suburb and will vote for enrichment.
I've lived a few places in my life and nowhere did I see more of this than there.
Jeremiah Wright
Except for the fact that FiveThirtyEight LITERALLY IS based on "historic trends" you FUCKING. MORON.
Your pseudo-science is nothing compared to professional political profiling and modelling.
Also, Bush won NV in both 2000 and '04. You fucking moron.
Zachary Garcia
What are you going to do if trump loses?
Jaxon Morris
Nope, because 538 has Trump doing better than OP does.
They've currently got him on 257 EC votes
Owen Nguyen
Let me buy you lunch OP
Alexander Howard
And Trump still loses.
Carter Butler
I live near Detroit and work in the city, he has a lot more support down there than the media would have you believe, not saying he will win In that area but it will not be the blowout that's expected, I can't speak on other predominantly black areas but i would assume there are many similar areas, tldr polls mean nothing we will see but unless this election is rigged as fuck (which it will be) I believe he can do it. Praise Kek!
Wyatt Nelson
a fucking leaf
Ryder Nguyen
No. We will never cede another fucking INCH to the niggers or the faggots ever again.
Ayden Walker
>implying the largest result of chaos would not be the mainstream and majority liberals killing themselves
Ok buddy. Try better with your next thread. Just copy Nate Silver, say Trump can't swing more states.
Honestly though, Clinton is fugged. Clinton throws millions of dollars at her Trump problem, but Trump just builds up support in swing states. Even Nate (((latest element meme))) has him a state away from winning. By the way, 538 is either retarded or I am. Trump gets a predicted 252.6 votes. But if you scroll down, it shows that Colorado (worth nine votes) would put him over 269. 538 is literally meme tier guessing.
Carson Gomez
I would say that this is his best shot.
Gavin Brown
The sad fact is that he's right. The elections have been a popularity contest since JFK V NIXON 1960.
It all started with the first broadcast of their debate.
Jayden Stewart
Tired myth. Back to school for /pol. Nixon's 1972 Electoral Map.
Hunter Gutierrez
Let me ask you this, what exactly happened on the international stage in the 60's? What party was the one behind the whole thing?
Finally, what was a major promise Nixon gave to the american people during his 72 run?
Owen Richardson
mass anti-establishment protests; Vietnam War - which he promised to end. My point is Nixon won with his experience, message and ideas not his charm, looks and likability.
