Most optimistic scenario based on current polling, and he STILL loses

That's true he does still lose based on your map. I think that after the debates Trump will do better in Michigan and possibly Wisconsin.
I also think, based on current trends, that third parties could steal enough votes from Clinton in Colorado or New Mexico that Trump could win one of those states.

It's not hopeless, and if you're not a shill you'll stop implying that it is.

sorry, meant this guy

Just did what you asked and hovered over. NH has him at 34%, Colorado at 30%. One of those needs to be closer to 50% for Trump to even have a shot at 270. Until either of those states become a possible win, he simply doesn't yet have enough states in his column, period.

Tell me im wrong

>nebraska not red
>just because

Another diagram.

He needs NH or CO in his column desperately

ffs, nebraska awards some votes proportionally, I gave him all but one. Even if he gets that one that still makes no real difference. He NEEDS another state. Just one, anyone one, but polling isn't kinda to him anywhere rn in those that he needs other than NH or CO

When will the electoral college meme end?

Wait when did Colorado slip out of his hands.

Since some wacky Rocky Mountain poll suggested it wasn't in his hands

realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/co/colorado_trump_vs_clinton-5751.html

Putting the poll aside, he is more or less tied in Colorado

Wait he tied, but now he's losing?

He was losing badly in NH and now he's grasping it.

What is happening?

First debate he's either going to gain more blue ones, or lose his slightly red ones.

This is crucial.

Wait until Tuesday

>losing Colo

ah yes hillary

it didn't, its just Nate (((Silver)))

>PA
>MI
>WI

leftist would shit themselves and commit mass suicide

...

Is this your first election? Anything can happen. Clinton managed to block Bush from a second term. Bush Jr. Won with less votes. Goldwater got blown the fuck out by Johnson. We even managed to elect Carter, a fucking dirt poor peanut farmer that spoke nice.

>Clinton +9

lolno

I wish that were the case, but I don't think Trump can win. Demographics are not on his side.

Please kill yourself

Why are PA, MI and WI even disputed?!

Someone fill a clueless fucking Leaf in. Those are supposed to be God and Country states no?

It didn't. New Hampshire just become a closer race, knocking Colorado down one place.

>seven states mentioned
>sources only 3

I'm getting really tired of these low-energy shill threads. Put more effort into them or fuck off, you're wasting everyone's time with this weakass bullshit.

Philly and "suburb soccer mom Republicans" who don't support Trump

Demographics are more than just spics and googles you dumb faggot.

If 3% more of white people voted in 2012 Romney would have won.

You're wrong, and fuck off

When several new (((polls))) were released

HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA

You DRUMPFAGS are so delusional.

Trump has no chance, even after all the shit shillery has done, trump is still LOSING

I can't believe you dumbasses backed him instead of a TRUE conservative

Michigan hasn't voted Republican since 1988

Romney won all of Nebraska's vote in 2012. Trump will do better there against Clinton than Romney did against Obama. One of Nebraska's votes did go to Obama by a very small margin in 2008 against McCain but that was due to the country being sick of Bush. Generally Nebraska does not split its votes. There's absolutely no reason to think Clinton will win any of them.

Nigger shut the fuck up.

Not a single poll in the last two weeks has him even tied, let alone winning, in any one of those other states.

Hillary has comfortable polling average leads in them, that's why I didn't bother linking them

He has to flip NH or CO

Nm is his

Easy win desu
HillBillies so salty as always

Cruz endorsed him. The polls in WI will begin closing soon.

Polls in PA and MI are poorly done, Monmouth literally had a poll where they had 49% Democrats because "well 49% of people who voted in PA in 2012 said they were Democrats" despite something like 50k to 100k Democrats switching to the Republican party to vote for Trump in the primaries.

Additionally Maine is far more competitive than polls show, as is Vermont. Notice how there are no polls on CD1 in Maine? They assume it's safe, and overall they've got it so their statewide polls are biased to get more voters from CD1 because there were 46,000 more CD1 voters in 2012. However both CDs have the same population, so that's a retarded way to measure things. Likewise in Vermont they're asking likely Democrat voters what they think without considering that a state which went 90% for Bernie will see a marked decline in Democrat turnout in 2016.

We're going to win Pennsylvania.

But why?

I've played with the thing a bunch of times too. I think this is largely accurate. The swing states that he'll be able to get are Florida, Nevada, Iowa, and Ohio.

If he wants to win he has to get one of VA or PA. And he's behind like 10 behind in PA and 3-6 out in VA based on hte last weeks polls.

He HAS to get VA. That's it. the whole election is right there.

Why the fuck can't Trump win Virginia? Didn't Hillary promise to take their jobs away?

Funny to remember that in the lifetime of anyone older than Millennials, Texas was blue and California was red. Millennials seem to think history started when they came into being.

>shit the fuck up
>stop calling me out on my bullshit

Thanks for proving this is a CTR shill thread

In any case CNN found something interesting with their most recent national poll which is that only 81% of likely voters will "definitely" vote, but 93% of Trump's likely voters will definitely vote versus only 80% of Hillary's.

This is going to be a landslide in Trump's favor because his people will bother to turn out and Hillary's won't. This is the bottom line of American elections: turnout is god.

If he keeps his 19% support among blacks he could take VA

Michigan is solid red this time.

Also, polls are shit.

Pic related

He's closer in WI and a slew of other states. VA is irrelevant and he'd be wasting time by dumping cash there, NOVAns are largely public servants who are afraid of him because of his anti-Department of Education statements and will vote against him to protect their taxpayer-funded jobs. Overall VA is probably the most competitive state.

Because of googles.

Nope. Trump actually just needs CO or NH to win if he carries those swing states. He should make a play at those given that his polling isn't too bad.

W. VA, not VA. Virginia is now hopelessly DC's suburbs. It's near permanently blue, plus she got Tim Kaine

so this... is the power... of marxism.....

Michigan has Detroit: Land of the Niggers. Wisconsin is right next to both the Twin Cities and Chicago, which are also minority nests, so a lot get in.

>as is Vermont.

fucking drumptards and your delusions

>it's people born between 1982 and 2000's fault

No, it's the media in general pushing the "all elections are 2012" narrative.

>sees multiple posts by my ID
>defending and criticizing anyone's bullshit when I see
>obviously supporting Trump and just want him to win
>somehow still get called CTR

that said, the rest of your post makes a good point. Enthusiasm for Trump is definitely higher than Hillary. Whether that impacts things on actual election day remains to be seen.

You're missing one thing pal. Pennsylvania polling is usually done around the Philadelphia area. There's a whole other country out in the north and west sides. I'd be really surprised if Trump doesn't win PA to be honest. I've heard and seen nothing but Trump, Trump, Trump around the surrounding areas such as Bucks county and even Lancaster. I've yet to see a Hillary Clinton sign.

The future belongs to those who show up!

And, Hillary is not going to get the turnout needed to win. Projections are just projections, but holy fuck, it's going to be a Trump victory of epic proportions....if that withered roastie cunt lives long enough to make it to Nov. 8th.

Shill slide thread choke on a dick.

VA isn't permanently blue and Tim Kaine is as irrelevant as Jim Gilmore. She didn't "get" Kaine, he's the VP because he was chairman in 2008 and promised her the DNC's support in 2016 if he got to be VP. That's it.

>it's the dutch guy who goes around calling people drumpftards

I love that they trusted the polls so much they forgot to rig it

How exactly are these polls fake? Surely they are taking reasonable samples? Something that anyone even remotely familiar with probability and statistics would be sure to do? I would love for Trump to win but I just don't believe that polls are greatly rigged? Anyone with an interest in math have anything to say about it?

It always impacts things, turnout is god in American elections because people aren't going to move their asses for a candidate they don't like. Everything else is secondary to turnout.

You clearly have no fucking clue how polling is done

Btw, I live in New England and all I see are Trump signs too. Not a SINGLE Clinton sign anywhere. That doesn't mean people won't vote for her, it's just that they won't like doing so.

Enthusiasm among his supporters is greater than enthusiasm for hers, that I don't doubt.

>I'd be really surprised if Trump doesn't win PA to be honest.
This.
I don't get why I've heard so little about Pennsylvania in this race.

how bout you optimize DEEZ NUTS ON YO FACE KEK

Poll from this past weekend showed him as close as 3% in VA.

I see Colorado is a pretty good one now that i look at RCP.
And Wisconsin is indeed close.

So really he has a few chances...
Colorado, Wisconsin, Michigan and VA. As of pretty recently they were all under 5 points for Clinton.

So really, he turns one of those states and he wins right?

I don't see how NH alone does anything for him if he loses the above.

Not to mention Wisconsin is home to loads of Paul Ryan cuckservative types

In most elections the Republican only bothers to go for a few battleground states

Trump decided he wanted to win every state, so while the 2012 battleground states are free to have their polls rigged the polls in unexpected states like MI are fluctuating in unexpected ways.

See If you poll a state which has seen massive party losses by the Democrats to the Republicans explicitly because people want to vote Trump but you use demographics from 4 years ago then your polls are going to be shit.

NH is four votes. He has 266 right now favoring him, +4 is 270.

However it is far more likely that he gets 300+ than he just squeaks by with 270.

Screencap this, niggers. We are going to #MAGA.

This is what will happen. Trust me

Ted Cruz and Trump are friends again. The cuckservatives are falling in line, Trump's poll numbers will rise again unless they decided to massage their samples in Hillary's favor again.

...

PA isn't currently in play according to polls.

Despite Trump making huge success in Ohio among suburbs Republicans, the same suburban Republicans in Pennsylvania seem to have avoided hoping on board. If he can convince them and the soccer moms to vote for him, Pennsylvania can be in play. As of now, it doesn't look like he's done it (yet)

NJ, PA, and VA are all shifting from lean-dem to battleground, and hopefully from there to republican. Probably a long shot in VA but definitely possible in PA and NJ if the Trump campaign concentrates a lot of time there

the vote is basically irrelevent

this aggression by the enemy of humanity becomes tiresome
democracy is shit
all hail the emperor
gtkrwn

It was really a liberal state all along, it just swung for Reagan

I don't think he has 266 favoring him right now. My best case scenario without VA/WISC/MICH/CO is 265. Where NH gets him nothing.

I think he just has to get one of the others and he's good. NH seems irrelevant to me.

They don't push that too and it is so annoying. I lived in Virgnia from 2004 to 2006 and back then it was unthinkable that Va would ever go blue.

im going to go jackoff but will keep an eye on this thread.

several anons have made decent posts about enthusiasm levels and Colorado.

Right now, I'm praying the Colorado numbers move in his direction. If I see good numbers coming out of Colorado I'll feel a lot safer.

It is really fun to see the map evolve over the years. The current climate of ultra polarization really only began around the Clinton era.

... the first one, that is.

Really got me thinking.

fucking california needs to be broken into northern and southern and their votes divided

can you make it smaller

>Being so new to politics.

You do realize that OH has backed every elected president for the last 50 years don't you?

michigan is a sharia state. 99% muslim population

Those are thumbnails of the same image in the catalog. What are you talking about?

>based on current polling
>randomly gives clinton an electoral vote for Nebraska that is firmly Trump according to virtually every poll

>thinking scientific laws can be applied to politics
>thinking states going one way or another historically has any bearing on the present
>calling someone else new

user, I....

will there ever be a time where california/new york/washington will ever go red?

California needs to be broken in six or seven pieces and the bottom part sold back to fucking Mexico.

Why? The north will get the bay area and the south will get LA; both will still be Democrat majority. All that does is add another democrat state (2 more Dem senators).

Why do you idiots keep thinking VA will turn blue? It did to Obama cause Romney and McCain were shitty, and Blacks went to vote to Obama.

Excluding Maine's second district he gets 265. Including it he gets 266. He is ahead in Maine's second district.

And he's ahead in NE's rogue district as well, so don't fucking go there.

Polls across the board will continue to tighten. This will not be a 2000-style squeak election but a landslide.

>50k to 100k Democrats switching to the Republican party to vote for Trump in the primaries.
That's a huge part of this election that makes polling less accurate. I'd love to see nationwide statistics. Also the enthusiasm gap between Trump voters and Hillary voters, as well as new voters who have never voted before (like many of us here). Every one of those factors favors Trump and as you said polling wouldn't pick up on it.

The debates also haven't started, and that could legitimize Trump in many people's eyes, but it wouldn't do much to help Hillary unless Trump fucks up badly. It's Trump's to lose.

This is it, right here. He isn't going to get any other states.

Remember the "ceiling?" This is it.

the north is like 80% republican. everything north of sacramento is like montana tier red

Typically it's more like Ohio is a state of importance with a strong working class base. If you're capturing large states like OH and FL and TX then it will be very difficult to lose the election, and OH gives us an idea of where the working class will go.

>the south
>blue

Wow

NOVA has exploded dude. Loudoun county was farmland during Bush2 presidency. In the 9 years i have been in the area, it has become a full fledged DC suburb.

Nothing but immigrants and government workers. It is a massive amount of people and it is turning the state blue. I hate it, but its going to happen.

>it's all a numbers game and averages scale down.

Additionally if you have tens of thousands of voters switching to the Republican party but you insist on polling the state as though those voters are still Democrats then your poll is literally wrong in terms of its sampling

Also Hillary is the one who can't lose the debates, not Trump. Trump is currently closing with Hillary despite him still being stereotyped as a moron. Hillary is considered untrustworthy but smart, Trump is a moron but trustworthy.

If she can't wipe the floor with Trump, if she ties with Trump or loses to Trump then she loses period because no one wants a person who is both untrustworthy and dumber than a moron.

Yet another wildcard factor that favors Trump:
Endorsements from previous rivals

latino.foxnews.com/latino/politics/2016/09/22/ted-cruz-warming-up-to-donald-trump-aides-suggest-may-endorse-him/

There are so many unknown factors that can ONLY help Trump that I'm actually very optimistic no matter what polling says.

Carter was the governor of Georgia, a real Southerner. Also the Southern shift whereby Southerners abandoned the Democrats for getting too liberal and anti-white hadn't yet occurred. In fact until 2010 something like half of elected Representatives from the South were "blue dog democrats" who were holdovers from the old days when the South was solid Democrat.

There's a reason why Clinton is from Arkansas and a Democrat- the Democrats were the party of the South and white people for more than 100 years.

Colorado is full of a bunch of pot smoking liberal faggots probably hoping for Hilary to say "let's (((legalize))) weed", even though she is against marijuana legalization afaik.

When a communist runs for Republicans

The real reason is because since Reagan the deindustrialization of America has continued unabated, destroying Michigander jobs and livelihoods. They vote Democrat because the Democrats are traditionally the worker's party and they have nowhere else to go, they're an abused girlfriend of a state.

Colorado will flip.

Screenshot this post.

pa blue meme. i see more maga hats than anything shillary related

It's amazing that they're still blue after all the shit Hillary's pulled, at this point it only seems like they're doing it because they hate Trump so much that they'll put a corpse in office.

Trump will lose the popular vote more than Bush did. Blue states will go heavily in favour of Clinton, and the battlegrounds will be slim victories.

Trump must throw the DUDE WEEDS a bone

Pot heads don't vote dude.

I'd expect Trump to actually get the popular vote, considering he's running against Hillary. Nevertheless I think the way the electoral college is set up will ensure a Clinton Presidency. Also, Trump has a long uphill battle in trying to get swing states like Idaho and Wisconsin

Neither candidate likes weed but Trump could easily turn over CO and NM by saying he'll do it before Hillary can say it.

Polls show them back and forth on the popular vote right now.

Yeah, his stop-and-frisk shit really helped with that

He'll get NH

and Nebraska has never split their votes so far.

It is a very Red state.

The ones that have a guilty conscience about it do.

What was the southern democrats. Come on even as non anerican i know that

Idaho? wtf u talking about. He's up by 20+

Trump has a modest lead in NM and a great lead in CO.

Maybe he meant Iowa

Remember that one independent mormon who was running as an independent to fuck over Utah? What ever happened to that guy? Or Romney and Kristol's independent?

Reminder that Romney was even closer to Obama in the polls and still lost in a landslide

Michigan's entire state government is republican. They get the nigs to vote for Dems in the federal elections but that's all.

Iowa is strong in Trump's corner.

Turnout for demographics are key.

Figure this is the poll for each of the major groups from the Pew Typology study in 2014.

people-press.org/2014/06/26/the-political-typology-beyond-red-vs-blue/

pic related

>Hillary has basically just given up Ohio and Florida to Trump because of the white working-class
And you think he won't take Pennsylvania?

I never said they were fake, I said they were wrong. The only people who answer the phone and take them have a lot of free time, IE democrats on welfare

It's those short fingers.

Clinton up only 2 in most recent Marquette poll. Close race.

>National polls
>mattering

Kek wills us to win this via electoral college for maximum butthurt

sorry . key got cut off

If he wins Iowa, Illinois, Ohio, Florida, and the Virginias. That's the only way he'll ever win.

Trump is statistically more likely to lose the popular vote while winning the electoral vote than the other way around

California has a lot of anchor babies who fucking hate him and they can really rack up the score against him, but states like MI and PA and NH are all moving towards him in the polls because he's a nice centrist candidate. Hillary and Obama (they are essentially the same) have moved too far to the left, so even if conservatives dislike Trump for being a centrist he's still better than the leftist Hillary and hence she isn't competitive in those conservative states.

This election is Trump's.

There's absolutely no evidence to support this claim.

Unlikely. It would be more likely for him to lose the popular vote because of Californian spics and still win the electoral vote.

Trump is a centrist and the polls in states like Illinois, Wisconsin and New Hampshire have been closing because of that. Hillary simply isn't competitive in red states because she's a leftist- or at least by calling herself Obama's third term she has made herself a leftist. And as a result Republicans simply won't swing for her.

Oh and he has to win Virginia.

They all fizzled out because no one wants to back some fucktard who is just in the race to spoil things, even jews who want trump to lose won't back them

Michigan
Red

Man I don't know about that... I live in this state, lots of blue pilled zombies here because of unions and Detroit

Reminder

TURNOUT TURNOUT TURNOUT

TURNOUT IS GOD

Romney had shit turnout, Hillary will have the same shit turnout

People will not bother to get up to vote for a candidate they don't like to beat someone they don't like, but people will get up to vote for a candidate they like to beat a candidate they dislike

Trump is liked and his supporters dislike Hillary. Hillary's supporters dislike her and Trump even more.

Right, a guy who relies on race bating and lynch mobs against Muslims and immigrants is "centrist".

>he needs to win three virginias

Shit, I guess it's over lads

>short fingers

Le ebin hillary supporter spotted

See The evidence is that pollsters like Monmouth insist on using 2012 party numbers in 2016 despite all evidence as to why this is a bad idea.

You could at least try you know, this is just shameful

t. Rubio-droid

Her support is rapidly collapsing, and we're still a month out. The cunt had better start pulling together fast, or she is toast.

The fact that it is so close, with only a minor disadvantage for Trump, suggests a major upset.

Trump COULD win if Gary Johnson got to debate and legitimized himself among leftists looking for a Hillary alternative

Kek.

Meant the carolinas.

Hillary needs to keep showing health problems if Trump wants to win. She also needs to keep acting like an angry entitled cunt who blames men/whites for the nation's problems

look at the time line, its going to rise to trump

Southern Democrats back in that time were actual democrats. Civil liberties were still in turmoil. Now that the liberties were not only granted, but over corrected, you see a flip in policies.

OP doesn't seem like a shill he's making good points and adjusting his predictions based on info from other anons. Chill out, not every contrary opinion is CTR

split nebraska is instant disqualification, you're stupid, try again.

It's 1877 and the democrats would gloat
But they're all amazed when Rutherford Hayes wins by just one vote

>Right, a guy who relies on race bating and lynch mobs against Muslims

You forgot to throw in that he hates women as well