Realistically speaking, what are the chances of Trump actually winning?

Realistically speaking, what are the chances of Trump actually winning?

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thezog.info/who-controls-donald-trump/
youtube.com/watch?v=TvI_TLZ6Wuc
youtube.com/watch?v=ktX4viox8zY
youtube.com/watch?v=ndRj2NtsmvM
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youtube.com/watch?v=xUQv3iv9fqk
thezog.info/list-summaries/
blog.dilbert.com/post/150772972746/how-to-know-an-election-is-over
washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/09/23/trump-is-headed-for-a-win-says-professor-whos-predicted-30-years-of-presidential-outcomes-correctly/?tid=pm_pop_b
twitter.com/AnonBabble

All of them.

it's not about chance, he just does.

50/50 since there are two candidates

106%

He will win, that's no other option.
Only in the US there are people still thinking that Clinton has a chance.

yes

Betting places have had him at better odds than Hillary for a few months now, they're not in the business of losing money.

Preddy gud

Extremely high.

thezog.info/who-controls-donald-trump/

youtube.com/watch?v=TvI_TLZ6Wuc

youtube.com/watch?v=ktX4viox8zY

youtube.com/watch?v=ndRj2NtsmvM

youtube.com/watch?v=RymaodaYc0E

youtube.com/watch?v=cja6N-KGYPY

youtube.com/watch?v=xUQv3iv9fqk

thezog.info/list-summaries/

its 2.3 for Trump and 1.57 for Hillary here, i bet 10$ on Trump when it was 2.5 (should have bet when it was 3.6)

He's already peaked and his ceiling is low. Pretty small penis and tiny hands will lose.

Seriously? I have not heard about that. Very interesting.

I got in at 3.4 but only for $30

Around 40% as it is now.

What's up with these tiny hands meme?

Pls spoonfeed me

The Jews won't let it happen. You would literally have to gas every single one of them for Trump to have a chance.

Extremely likely

Master persuader filter: 100% chance for a Trump win.

>How to Know an Election is Over
blog.dilbert.com/post/150772972746/how-to-know-an-election-is-over

That's how science and reason work. You don't get to change a real scientific prediction without throwing out your theory.

I got in around then with 50 quid. That plus my 20/1 odd on Hillary dropping out

I would have thought they were low, simply because the undecided are likely to lean toward Hillary simply due to her already being an actual, established politician, let alone not being compared to Hitler at every opportunity.

She may be corrupt and all that, but it takes effort to really find that info, whereas the vilification of Trump is fucking ubiquitous.

Thank MSM for that

Voting isn't mandatory in America.

That's like saying there's a 50% chance of rain every day since it could either rain or not.

There aren't any clouds in the sky; chances of Trump is low, around 8%.

There is no need for reality anymore, user.

Do you guys think Trump can win?
My mind seems to change weekly.

100%

His platform isn't "I have a vagina and I'm not the other guy" so it seems good at this point, we'll see what happens in the debates but given Hillary was handed the nomination this time and failed to get it last time combined with Trump's domination of the GOP I don't see it hurting his chances any.

Except for Brexit?

CTR faggot detected.

Toss-up. A few months ago I would have said there was no way. Now, however, the momentum is behind him. He'll only lose if he makes himself lose, which, given Trump, is still very likely. Still, better shot now than ever.

Why do you guys coerce into voting those people who don't give a shit? If someone doesn't give a fuck, they ought to stay home so those who do care don't have their impassioned, informed votes diluted.

There are absolutely no good arguments in favor of mandatory voting.

Ye but theres a high chance the dems rig the election.

85 ~ 95% of utter landslide

1488%

He already won.

IIRC the margins on the brexit bets were pretty close mate, 2 - 2.66 when I got in I believe.

I dunno mate, I don't vote :^)

100%

t. professional statistician

right now about 60%, but that might go up or down after the debate

Brexit here was like 7,6 two weeks before the referendum
Also the polls arent looking that good.

That is not true, I just checked 3 separate sites and they have Clinton to win.

Looks like you're right, maybe I was thinking of this

If he puts Kathy Shelton in the front row at a debate, 100%.

>The vilification of Trump is fucking ubiquitous.
Fucking this. How fucking many anti Trump stories have there been on the BBC in the last few months? I've lost count. Articles such as "How can we stop Trump?" The BBC is supposed to be impartial, it's not been for a while now.

99%

I'm confident he will win.

Pretty sure your double answered the question

17%

Not sure.
I still have this feeling that shillary is going to win.
I hope I'm wrong.

he's leading in a lot of swing states....so bretty good i'd say

He will probably win but I expect some shady shit before and after the election

He needs to win all of them in order to win. Not "a lot of" them, mind you. Every single one.

You think the chances that he'll win every single one is "bretty good"? Really?

2 kinds of betting bookie and pari-betting.

Bookies choose their odds, pari is based on how much money is invested in each side. Bookies can win or lose, pari the house takes a rake.

The thing is he absolutely needs most of those anyway. Hillary already commands a majority of states and only needs a select few to win.

You gotta look at the polling methodology. Nobody has a landline anymore. Additionally, Trump supporters are so demonized that a lot are on the downlow.

>Its da juice who be keepin da wyatt man down!

Given how fucked up the Electoral college is: Trump will probably win 46% of popular vote, but cause states are winner take all he will prolly loose.

After living Brexit ... 100%

reevaluate what you just said and let me know why someone who doesn't get the majority should win

27%

Imagine getting paid by CTR to shitpost 24/7 during the election cycle.

What a sweet job that must be.

He's leading in Nevads, Iowa, Ohio, Florida, Colorado and New Mexico.
That's a win right there.

Trump 100% victory. Hillary's supporters have zero enthusiasm and she's coasting on the Democrat's structural advantage in the electoral college.

Hillary is like McCain in 2008. Trump isn't 2008Obama-level support wise, but Trump is sold.

Very low. The entire media apparatus is going to completely have these debates ready to kill his campaign.

The moderators will be on her side, she'll know the proper answers already. Even if he does do pretty good regardless, the MSM already has articles and poll numbers prepared for Tuesday to show how much he lost and most will believe it.

>the moderators will be on her side

Like Layer was? Fuck off shill

pordy pybe bergend :DDD

*Lauer

>only two people can win
>he's one of the two
How stupid are you people?
saged

Since when have debates mattered?

Kennedy v Nixon and Obama v Romney.

Kennedy looked heartthrob and Romney looked like a hater. Television is Trump's element.

Anderson fucking Cooper is going to be moderating at least one of them. Most of the moderators are associated with Clinton donors somehow, and all the media covering this will spin it positively for her after the fact

>Colorado
He's not leading this state.

...

We'll see, shill, we'll see

If you are a betting man, and your not. He does! So what do you think*question mark*

Ha! Puerto Rico thinks its a coin toss!
> funny user, your funny.

nah the polls dont lie

he has a good shot at it

20%

Not really high unfortunately.

Establishment wants Hillary plus the big states are extreme liberals beyond any help.

This is the ultimate redpill

Nothing will be the same

I fucking hate posts under your flag so much. I'd kill myself if that disconnected you from the internet for a year.

Look at what you've done even here. 5 replies. AT LEAST 5 people actually looked that up in order to tell you that you are full of shit, just as always. Can't we have a petition to ban aussies from here? Can't you go to doublech?

Kill yourself

Kennedy won that actually and Romney only one the first one

>Trump is headed for a win, says professor who has predicted 30 years of presidential outcomes correctly

washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/09/23/trump-is-headed-for-a-win-says-professor-whos-predicted-30-years-of-presidential-outcomes-correctly/?tid=pm_pop_b

Based on an aggregate of my personal prediction model and other professional statisticians, I am giving Trump 45% chance of winning pre-debate

Not that user. Trump is gonna win.

Thank goodness we can't vote for the presidency, else the vote would've been solid blue.

>the new even lower brow Washington Post
>brought to you by Amazon™

If Hillary is talking about some frog and making up fake shit like the Alt right. I imagine there must be a high chance of him stealing it from her.

if singles Trump loses

Finally A FUCKING LEAF makes some sense

99%

In the end, does it even matter if he wins? I've never been more expectant of an assassination than from this election. Both sides are riled up and convinced the opponent is pure evil.

An assassination would only be fuel on the fire and the fire is rising

100%

Inversely proportional to the chance of Gary Johnson dropping out.

this leaf is both based and correct.

NO MORE CLOWNIN AROUND FOR YOUUUUU

It depends what factor is more decisive

a) undecided female voters veering away from Trump

b) Hillary shitting the bed with male voters of all ethnicities

0%

900%

40% is the official chance

Pretty good desu Hillary is already starting to slide down in the polls.

Let these repeating digits decide.

...

40:60
Hillary is going to massively rig the polls but trump has enough support and there are enough redpilled normies that he won't get crushed , he has a moderate chance

80% unironically. When he got nominated I honestly thought he'd get rekt. But he has 60% of the white vote, 20% of the minority and dindu vote , millenials won't vote and Millenial males support trump and are the most active politically

He will win either way.

If he wins its because we genuinely have the most voters

If Hillary rigs the polls and takes it middle america isnt going to stand by nor the military

It would usher in the second american revolution. They would all hang

so either way the futures brighter than burning merchants

The niggers just delivered North Carolina he's up and ahead in fucking Colorado New Mexico and Nevada in 40 days PA and Virginia will be red

>he constantly loses in polls
>plummeting fast
>yet Cred Forums is delusional enough to think that he has a great shot at winning

H O L Y
F U C K

you think more white voters in NC will be spooked by the violence than blacks turn out due to police brutality?

maybe

> Polls were never wrong before.

Sure Canada is still ruled by Stephen Harper the Liberals under Miliband rule the UK and Brexit never happened

Most of the niggers there are not even local niggers they got bussed in by BLM

Fug
Meant for

Unfair REEEEE

Absolutey, NC outside of chapel hill, the triangle and Charlotte is red as fuck, they'll see these dindus rioting and already made up their minds for Trump

Gary and Jill are still in the races, abo

100%

it appears CTR has a pastebin,
paste bincom/9fCVTmdF

He doesn't actually present any real analysis of the current state of play. He doesn't actually show how to tell when an election is over.