What did Nate mean with this?

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Didn't Nate Silver just say yesterday debates don't matter?

Even Nate Bronze doesn't matter at this point.

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It means he's covering his own ass after making a fool of himself in the Primaries by throwing in more words like "likely" and "if" now.

What is 104%?

how are you still up?!

Dude how many shekels did you make today ? really, you are at it till that morning

This what happened in the primary

Even when Trump had a bad debate his poll numbers went up.

alot of people did; there is unlikely to be surprises that kill a campaign. but they typically cause a boost in someone's numbers for a week

Nate silver ran an article a bit over a week ago saying "if hillarys polls look like this in a week she is in trouble."

Then when the polls were pretty much the same, he said "well I dont know if its time to panic"

this guy started posting this shit at about 0300 GMT. i was feeling sick and got up around 0800 GMT and again, he was shitposting. i'm getting worried

He admitted he was a shill, debate days pay more so thats why today there was a lot

What he's saying is that, in any logical presidential primary winning the first debate should give you quite a bump in the polls.

However.

Teflon Don has been through a LOT worse than this. A LOT worse. He's been borked to hell and back and he's now resistant to everything they can throw at him - including losing debates.

So Nate is conceding that it might not even matter if Hillary won.

Trumps polling might still go up because Hillary is just that unlikeable, just that out of touch, and no one, no one, is excited about her, even Nate Silver.

If Trump can do that badly, and still gain support, how would anyone ever plan to beat him? How do you fight something that can win by sucking?

>Clinton won, so she may go up in the polls. Or she may not. I'm bad at my job.

Those are daily odds

at one point, Remain had 99% chances of winning according to betting markets

Is the red circle the new leaf?

He's absolutely right, but at face value what he's saying appears to be a tautology.

Clinton handily won the debate and didn't shit herself or appear weak on stage. That should give her a huge bump in the polls because it erases the doubts people were having about her health.

If the polls remain constant and it turns out that Trump appearing reasonably presidential canceled out the bump Hillary would've gotten then it's really bad for Hillary and it's basically Trump's race to lose.

Silver is correct in his analysis, but yeah he really didn't say anything that wasn't obvious.

All those radiations really messed your brain.

You cannot possible make enough shekels to replace your falling hair in time. Well... maybe you can try to bet on Hillary.

>i know i know, 1 post by this ID

Yeah because he thought Hillary was going to be BTFO.

A fucking circle.

Hillary still looked sick to me, her emotions appear to be fake.

Trump utterly destroyed her.

He talked about real plans and policy and Clinton just talked about Trump.

He had her on the ropes the whole times. All she could do was arrogantly smirk while she was losing. It was embarrassing for her and for the Democratic party.

Almost all the polls except for LOL (((CNN))) agree.

Trump dominated