Does someone else find it odd that this is entirely possible?

Fuck you transplant. You have to go back.

Colorado is and always has been a purple state. It's why it isn't a shit hole.

>I know Florida is a 50.50 tossup at the moment
>What's the odds on Penn?

RCP averages for real battlegrounds are:
Colorado: +0.5 Trump
Florida: +0.5 Clinton (because of some odd outlier 400 people sample poll)
Nevada: +2.3 for Trump
North Carolina:+0.8 for Trump
PA: +1.8 for Clinton

Of these 5 states, Trump needs Florida and NC to win, or he loses overall I guess. If he wins Florida and NC, he has the option to also get Nevada and Colorado, or win in PA.

Longshots for Trump:
Michigan: +4.3 for Clinton
Maine: +3.8 for Clinton
Minnesotta: +4.3 for Clinton

If any of the 3Ms flip red, he probably has the election for sure, because it is likely that he then holds most of the battlegrounds too.

I say Virginia and Wisconsin aren't in play for Trump this election. Ohio, Georgia, Arizona, Iowa aren't in play for Clinton.

>virginia should go red
Yes user this is actually the same exact map I believe it will be...if well you know, that bitch or the kikes doesnt try to rig our shit. But thankfully we have russia

>meme????
kek colorado will go red, no one wants shillary

Trump will win Florida by like 20 points

PA will not go red. Other than that it's entirely possible.

>Trump will win Florida by like 20 points
No, he will be lucky to win it by 2 points.

>>virginia should go red
Out of the question. Virginia is Hilldog blue state territory hands down. Trump isn't even campaigning there.

florida and ohio are already red guaranteed, it's pennsylvania Trump needs to focus on. If he can win PA it's a landslide

HILLARY'S PARKINSON'S ON DISPLAY AT THE DEBATE

>youtube.com/watch?v=925ihXI1lkE

>it's pennsylvania Trump needs to focus on. If he can win PA it's a landslide

The funny thing is that a multilateral strategy is surer to win.

Under the assumption that he takes Florida and NC, he just needs ONE more flip:
(A) PA - possible, but hard
(B) Colorado - entirely possible
(C) Michigan - long shot
(D) Minnesotta - very long shot

Then there are some unlikely scenarios that he loses Colorado, wins Florida and NC, loses PA, but wins Maine... only that this will get him to 268 or 269 at the most.

What happens in a 269 to 269 situation? Do they have sex on stage and the delegates vote on who does it better?

Hillary inherited Obama's improved GOTV operations and contacts which is far superior to trump's. That means he's not safe in any swing state unless he's ahead by 2-4 points in the polls.

Remember, despite Romney's decent GOTV campaign, he still lost florida despite polls showing him winning there. Trump's GOTV is pathetic compared to Romney,s so you shouldn't feel safe until he is 4 points ahead in florida or Ohio.

Bernie Sanders is set to begin a speaking tour shortly in which he will target millenials and try to get them to vote Hillary

The vote goes to the House of Representatives

The house of representatives picks their favorite, doesn't even need to be one of the candidates, the is the ideal Jeb! scenario, as he is still the establishment republican pick and the house is firmly republican.

this is the*

You're wrong

>Under the terms of the 20th Amendment to the Constitution the newly elected House of Representatives will then vote to elect a President. Under the 12th Amendment, Congress is required to choose from the three candidates with the highest total of electoral votes from among those receiving electoral votes

I thought they can only pick from the top three people who got the most delegate votes?

>Trump winning PA
>Trump winning NC
lmao

Not delegate votes
Electoral votes in the general election

See

He's not taking PA. He doesn't have to to win, but he's not taking it.

He has a decent chance of flipping PA, NH, MI, CO and WI. VA is also a chance but much less

>>Trump winning NC
Name a poll in which Clinton leads in NC.

Gravis and High Point university polls are the two most recent polls and shows Clinton ahead by 1-2 points.

>Michigan is a long shot, but also feasible.

I've been talking about this for a while. I live outside Detroit, think Trump has a better shot in Michigan than he gets credit for. If he flips Michigan, this can change the game.

Trump really needs to come out next debate and hammer Hillary big time over NAFTA and the TPP

If there's one thing those former auto workers hate it's NAFTA sending plants to Mexico and Canada

>Trump really needs to come out next debate and hammer Hillary big time over NAFTA and the TPP

>If there's one thing those former auto workers hate it's NAFTA sending plants to Mexico and Canada

Absolutely, agree 100%. This is how he flips Michigan.

Didn't work. He did hit her on that in the debates. But there was a fox news poll which showed a tie two weeks before the debates. Post-debate, the very same poll shows Clinton ahead by 5.

PA WILL NOT GO RED
PA WILL NOT GO RED
PA WILL NOT GO RED
PA WILL NOT GO RED

>florida can go
>can

>Literally uses dead people to vote for democrats

That state is a shit hole.

You guys from PA? Cause I live in the fucking heart of it and it's fucking Trump Central, there's not one Hillary supporter in a 100 mile radius from where I live. My dad left work today and seen two 13 year olds with bikes along the side of the road, where they were walking they seen a Trump sign and they walked around it, then just a little bit further there was a Hillary sign, they looked at the house to see if anyone was there and they fucking ran over it. No one in PA likes Hillary, she only goes to Nigger Cities, aka just Flithy. PA is going Red. It's been long over due.

>Recent elections
>1972

The problem is even if Trump wins all counties aside from whatever counties are home to philly and shitsburgh he will still lose the state

Virginia will only have 4 counties go blue yet everyone is already considering it a lock for Hillary

Virginia being shit again, is probably the way it's going to crumble, but it's hard to believe because it's traditional red.
But the demographic shifts there have been insane. Oh well fuck them it's their fault the south failed anyway.

thats like saying you see trump signs everywhere in illinois. it doesn't matter when your state has fucking cook county. PA is too far gone, trump should focus on colorado instead. PA has been blue for so fucking long there's no way it will just suddenly flip in 4 years.

Any non candidate pick would immediately be challenged in the Supreme Court.
They would literally fucking drop everything to hear it.

lol gary Johnson will be number 3#

Bernout here, you're absolutely right. I lived all over Florida the past few years, there is no way Trump can lose there. He's got all the enthusiasm, I don't care what the polls say. I hate Florida.

Virginia was a red state for fucking EVER - at least since the southern shift

You got played like a fiddle

>Pittsburgh had the biggest rallies

>Shitsburgh

Flithy Nigger Spotted.

>flag

>PA has been blue for too long no way it wouldn't flip in 4 years

You live here? We have the worst Governor even since Corbett, and that wasn't even long ago. Tom Wolf is ruining PA, and everyone is making the switch. Toomey is getting in, and PA is going blue, just watch.

*Red

Sorry just got off work, very tired, and still wondering why I'm trying to argue with a Netherfag.

Tie=Trump Wins

Do you work at a steel mill?

is it really that bad though? i would assume everyone who's that concerned about their pot also dislikes hillary. it's the same demographics. they're mostly bernouts and are probably going to vote for jill

>Trump losing NC
Obama couldn't win it again in 2012 and he barely won it in 2008. It's a red state desu.

FLORIDA IS HILLARY'S NOW.

Or didn't anyone hear the news that Trump committed treason by conducting business in Cuba during the embargo.

If he doesn't go to jail that oompa loompa mother fucker is going to lose every Cuban voter especially in Florida.

Jill sucks. I hate her stance on GMOs and vaccines, anti-science nonsense. I'll probably vote for Rocky, though.

Game over man !

nydailynews.com/news/politics/donald-trump-conducted-illegal-business-communist-cuba-report-article-1.2810972

They're not going to give a fuck. Source: knowing way too many Cuban Floridians in Miami and Palm Beach. It's not even new news, it wasn't a lot of money and who cares. Trump's values match up exactly with theirs, it ain't going to change a thing.

Which is likely to backfire. Most of my friends are libtards and they're all pissed about Hillary stealing the nomination. One friend I have confirmation is voting for Gary Johnson, another I suspect is probably Jill Stein although he hasn't indicated who he plans to vote for, a third hasn't vocalized support for anyone since Hernie threw in the towel, but she's been liking a lot of Gary Johnson stuff on kikebook, and the last one I suspect is for Johnson as well.

Hillary is used to playing traditional politics, where people throw their support behind either a party or an individual. She assumes that since millennials supported Bernie they'll support her if Bernie goes out and shills for her. It's not the case with the Bernouts; they don't support Bernie himself so much as they believe in his crackpot ideology with a religious fervor. They donated their rent money and sold their cars to finance his campaign because they thought he would turn America into a socialist utopia and they wouldn't have to pay off their student loans anymore.

They didn't follow the guy because of his charisma or personal charm, they followed him because he was supposedly going to start a "political revolution", and if he comes out now saying "never mind, forget the revolution, vote for Hillary" his supporters are just going to be even more demoralized and bitter than they were when he was just defeated instead of defeated AND cucked. Most of them probably won't even vote, a bunch will vote third party, probably a few will just shrug and vote Hillary because they're just beta cucks waiting for someone to tell them what to do, but it won't be enough. I've even met one Bernfag who said he was so pissed off about the whole thing he was planning to vote for Trump just to watch the world burn.

Hillary is not winning the millennial vote, trust me.

>a state that has been blue for decades with a rapidly declining white demographic and tons of shitskins and self-destructive white cuckolds is going to flip red for a guy like trump

by how much did king nigger win it again? 5 or 6%? yeah, definitely the crowd to vote for trump.

We'll just have to see tomorrow when the article comes out. Pretty sure committing treason is a pretty big deal.

Fair enough. My feeling is that if the reporting isn't Woodward and Bernstein tier, Trump can just disavow any knowledge of it and say it was stuff his minions were doing without his awareness or consent. It seems to work for Trump and every other rich guy, oh, 99% of the time.

doubt he wins PA Tbh, PA is just like NY where the big city fucks with the rest of the state

>Pretty sure committing treason is a pretty big deal

Trump's treason:
>I did business with some people in Cuba once a long time ago

Hillary's treason:
>I literally compromised national security and hid the evidence, was clearly guilty as all fuck, yet walked away from the investigation scott free

Gee, I wonder whose treason is going to look worse.

>this map
>Nevada goes blue
>tie

Easy. The scandal that is going to come out 40 days before the election and right when people are early voting is going to win.

...

Does anyone else spread their asshole really wide when taking a shit

TFW I live in Florida and I'm voting for Hillary.

According to the polls, this is what WILL happen, besides Pennsylvania.

What county? I'm registered in Palm Beach, my shitty vote is about as valuable as you can get. Pinellas, not so much.

Do y'all know what the Chinese word for devil is?

Mogul.

China china china china

Palm Beach as well. It's pretty nuts how divided Florida really is.

tie: drumpf takes the power by coup

Let's break apart the word "artisanal".

"Art is anal".

How does that make you feel, Hillshills?

...

You ain't kiddin'.

SLOW AND STEADY

This was my prediction pre-debate. I need to see where polls are come this weekend before I can take another stab at it.

No, he will have zero electoral votes so he won't be eligible.

What's this red Michigan meme based on?

GROSS

>Michigan
>red

give me what you're smoking

Trump will have 208 electoral votes, screen cap this

There's nothing odd about Trump gaining more support.

Hilary Clinton is a death sentence. Death is the inevitable destiny of any country who elects a blatant sociopath who should be serving life in solitary confinement.

My prediction that Michigan would go red was based on the fact that recent surveys have shown Trump either tied or ahead in Michigan and the momentum seems to be in his direction.

He has also been campaigning heavily there compared to other states.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/michigan/

Note that he doesn't need Michigan or Maine to win in my scenario. But I think there will be a surprising groundswell of support for him in both states.

Gonna rain on your party.

Early voting hasn't started yet.

Their talking about absentee ballots in Florida which has already happened and republicans always win those. This time, it looks slightly worse from 2008.

The link shows that republicans have 16 percent more absentee ballots. in 2008, republicans had 17 percent more absentee ballots.

Early in person hasn't started yet, and those always lean democrat.

That's right. Check out the number of requested ballots here. the 120k figure has risen to about 145k.

countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

A bit strange that Trump would get the main Maine but not the second district. The reverse is much more likely, and considering the momentum Trump ahs a decent chance of getting the whole state (well, that's still 3 electoral college votes).

Yeah, the article was when it was at 14 percent more than democrats. Now it's about 16 percent which is slightly less than in 2008.

This is extremely bad for trump and this is not taking into account the first debate.

there is no world in which trump wins both colorado and ohio

" i dont know anyone who voted for Nixon "

lol are you going to ask for your $ back when trump is sent back to the golf course in november?

...

Trump already has florida locked, from early results and I'm a floridian master race.

Prove it please. I see no proof that it is worse than 2008.

Basically, all things equal:
Trump wins if:
>NV and CO
Or
>FL and PA

Why don't we save these threads until the week before the actual vote?
It literally is pointless this far away from the day.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/2012-10-15/florida-democrats-cut-traditional-republican-lead-in-mail-votes

>Absentee Ballots
>is down from 17 points that Republicans had at the same point during the 2008 presidential election.

>Implying anyone donated to Trump

Seems Trump is above 2012 levels.

Yeah. He was between 2012 and 2008 levels. Both those years were decisively republican losses.

>Philly
Hell no.
But Florida and Colorado are really tossed-up

Can confirm. Eastern PA is all Trump too.

You are DELUSIONAL if you think Trump will win PA. Never going to happen.