(((Nate silver)))

Why is it that every time Trump makes gains, almost immediately 538 scales back and gives shillary points back? Its As if they are doing damage control

Other urls found in this thread:

fivethirtyeight.com/features/dear-media-stop-freaking-out-about-donald-trumps-polls/
archive.fo/4iOTI
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5963.html
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/oh/ohio_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5970.html
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nc/north_carolina_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-5951.html
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/co/colorado_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5974.html
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nv/nevada_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-6004.html
fivethirtyeight.com/features/let-caster-run-we-should-celebrate-semenyas-extraordinary-talent/

nate silver? is that the guy who perfectly called every state's result for two straight elections except for one single senate race in a highly contested state?

It's almost as if he always has 50/50 odds

if he had 50/50 odds for EVERY STATE then he'd only correctly call EVERY STATE less than 1% of the time.

you're criticizing the country's greatest predictor and yet you don't even know basic math, you stupid fucking nigger.

Fuck off Nate

no

>claim Trump has a 1% chance to become the Republican nominee
>claim Trump has a 80% chance to become the Republican nominee
>Trump becomes the nominee

SEE????? I WAS RIGHT!!!!!

it's because he is not making gains dumbass

literally none of that makes sense. even if trump wins, nate could still get the particular states wrong.

...except he literally NEVER HAS

>Michigan primary

ITT people who are not as smart as nate silver

...

Trump is the next POTUS.

If only I had Nate's foresight.

because of polls lol

Maybe it's because Trump actually does have ceiling after all.

/thread

538 is actually the most bullish on Trump of any major political prediction system and Nate has to defend it all the time

never happened

What does it have to do with his extremy accurate predictions?

His record kind of speaks for itself.

>I don't understand how odds work

I guess Bernie had a 100% chance of winning Michigan according to your retarded logic.

Sometimes, 1% and 5% things happen.

>implying it's hard to bet if certain states will vote neocon against the first black president after bush.
He pointed out the obvious and got brownie points because of it.

Nate Copper strikes again.

He predicted 2012

That's it

Yeah it was all so obvious. That's why you're also touted as being on his level.

If what he did is so easy, why aren't you running your own political odds website that everyone tunes into? We both know you have superior analysis skills, champ.

>AZ, GA not battlegrounds
fuck off drumpf shill

actual odds right now are complete shit

its not 2012 anymore

what has he done since?

and his bet was basically that obama would have high turnout.... he did

hillary wont and trump will

Jeez Nate, did I strike a nerve?
Maybe you should take a nap before deciding water has a 1% chance of being wet.

Nate revises his forecast once a week.

Which means he puts out between 51 and 52 wrong predictions a year.

>50/50
>not 5/38

nigger

That was the only primary out of fucking 100 he got wrong.

kill yourself for being so stupid

that poster was saying Nate just changes his odds (often dramatically) and then claims genius

>trump will never get the nom -nate (1%)
>some time passes, now it looks really obvious trump will get the nom
>trump will get the nom -nate (80%)

Rofl epic comeback bro XD

Well, at least you can sit on the internet telling everyone how easy everything is while you sit there and do nothing. You have endless potential, you're just not using it!

according to him Trump wasnt going to win any states

>Nate revises his forecast once a week.
>Which means he puts out between 51 and 52 wrong predictions a year.

You are painfully retarded. Circumstances change over time, so odds are adjusted. His job is not "soothsayer".

>at least you can sit on the internet telling everyone how easy everything is while you sit there and do nothing.
that sounds like nate silvers job

You answered your own question in the title skype

jew numbers, who cares?

Something given a 1% chance by a model occurring doesn't cast doubt on the model unless such occurrences happen more than 1% of the time

Which means that this weeks prediction is just as worthless as last week and the week before that and not to pay attention to Nate until its literally election night.

1/52 is 1.9%.

lets be honest

nate and his company are out of touch hacks

he was all about the data for obama

but when he saw trumps data (and to a lesser extent bernies data).... he just ignored it

then for a time he leaned heavily on the book The Party Decides.... to explain why he was ignoring data he didnt like

nate silver is a cuck.

>btfo Hillary in early voting
>first republican to do so
>dems have almost never won if they didn't secure a lead with early voting
>oh but NC and FL are blue right now tee hee xd :^)

She got btfo there and she's losing with independents yet the ((((polls))) all claimed they were tied in those states.
Face it, she's fucking done.

You kill YOUR self for being so fucking retarded. What the fuck don't you guys get about poll analysis?

If your point is that Nate Silver can't accurately predict an election a year and a half before election day, you could have a point. But nobody gives a fuck about that and we aren't judging him based on that. We judge him based on his statistical analysis and methods of gathering these odds, and he does it very precisely and updates these trends regularly. Does he get it 100%? No. But he is extremely accurate.

Early predictions are worthless. Someone could have said "Trump will be President" 6 years ago, and yet what the fuck is that worth? Nothing. They weren't using any actual deep analysis and didn't have good reasons for predicting this, and unless this person has a regular track recording of predicting things years ahead of time, it's worthless drivel because it wasn't based on the actual circumstances of the outcome.

I know Hillary supporters who go after Nate too except they're like "he's so scared of calling the general wrong he's overestimating Trump's chances"

>FL, IA, OH
>Leaning Clinton

Fucking SAGE

Please never talk about odds again. You're just making it painfully obvious that you never finished high school.

kill yourself nate

see

No one is arguing the results today will be the results in November.

His odds are just showing the situation as it is, there is nothing wrong with that. No one is arguing this is how the election is going to turn out, that's just the assumption butthurt people are making.

Polls are polls, they try to create an image in the current time. Are doing polls pointless because they will inevitably change by November?

>Trump makes gains

but he isnt making gains

This is probably the dumbest post on the internet right now

why though? Just objectively speaking he's been mostly right about polls so far. Plus the chances of Trump winning this election are practically 0, so I don't see why his predictions seem to be dismissed

Trump is going to be the next President, whether Nate Silver wants it or not.

Polls are fucked up this cycle. None of them have a clue what is going to happen. Their models and methods are obsolete. Which is why on aggregate everything is always about 50/50.

The best indicator we have is to look at where Hillary is spending money and how much she is spending there relative to everywhere else.

That will tell you if a state is close or if she thinks she is in trouble there.

Can't follow where Trump is spending money. Because he doesn't give a shit / doesn't think he needs to do it. Or is just directing it all to the companies that he owns. Or both.

Maybe it would be prudent for circumspect Trump supporters not to attack facts and math and stuff so as not to do the worst thing possible in politics which is confirm your opponent's narrative

How much does CTR get payed? I'm a pretty avid shitposter like yourself (very good at deflective ad hominem), and I think it would be right down my alley.

he was fed internal polling data which is way better than polling data accessible to the public. Each party has much more accurate polling than the public does.
also, you don't have to "predict" 50 states. Most of them are obvious.

>payed

Yep, never finished high school.

GOT HIM GOOD user, OOH HES GONNA FEEL THAT IN THE MORNING.

>i suck nate silvers dick and read his clickbait blog so i am smart
>who cares if he openly ignores data he doesnt like... read The Party Decides!

btw the result for the "except for one single senate race in a highly contested state" was within the margin of error of his prediction.

>using 2012 turnout models
ISHYGDDT

Trump will sweep the south and win Ohio. He wins with that alone.

>trump leading national polls for months on end
>throws out the data
>trump will never get the nomination
>havent you read The Party Decides

thats called a hack

Again. It is just the shear stupidity of people on this board.

You'll do anything to persuade yourself of your own beliefs without realizing you are telling yourself a story about something that hasn't happened and comparing it with another story of what should happen that didn't happen, and all the while ignoring, or filtering out, or making up out of whole cloth the story of what is going on.

And none of it is useful to be believed.


Statistics doesn't predict. It describes. If the description leads to to make an action that achieves your intent, then that is the story that is useful to be believed.

The rest is delusion.

Typical Trump supporter everyone

Might end up like the brexit thing. 50/40% for trump? Besides, it makes things more tense, therefore more people check the news sites for info.

The worst reality TV show in the world, because it's all real.

Not based on polling data and therefore irrelevant.

Not based on polling data and therefore irrelevant.

Not based on polling data and therefore irrelevant.

So you're saying we should trust the data on their site then? :^)

[citation impossible]

>not a soothsayer

>claim he's always right

into the oven

Exactly, he's not a qualified sooth sayer like us here on this board.

again, sheer stupidity of people in this post

you'll do anything to persuade yourself that facts matter

fivethirtyeight.com/features/dear-media-stop-freaking-out-about-donald-trumps-polls/

>poll guru telling people to ignore the polls/data!

im saying ignore nate, and look at the data yourself

archive.fo/4iOTI

That doesn't mean he hasn't got a vendetta against Trump. There has nevsr been an anti estalbishment candidate like Trump. Mitt Romney, Obummer, McCain, GWB all the same.

538 has for some time tried to slaughter trump.

With all the Jews?

nate didnt like the data so he threw it out

This.
If you can't make the prediction from months out of the election then you're not really good at predicting. If Nate Copper was setting his prediction in stone in August or September then was right 50/50, I'd be impressed but instead, he looks at the polls a few days before election day and tells you who will win. Anybody can do that.

you are now aware that 72% of this board is comprised of Trump campaign employees that still haven't received a single paycheque because suing their boss would be prohibitively expensive

>1 post by this ID

>1 post by this ID

I'm not quite sure what people I this thread are missing. I can make accurate predictions a few days out from the actual polls.

I can't make accurate predictions a month or more from polls opening. Neither can Nate. Much like placing a bet on the team that's ahead in the final minutes of the game, touting his late results and info ring his early predictions is foolish. His forecasting model doesn't work this time, but people cling to him like he's a stats messiah.

It's odd/pathetic, really

Nate tracks odds and updates them accordingly. I never claimed he was always right. You can see in my other posts that I never said that. I said he is very accurate, and he is. He already admitted that he acted like a pundit and underestimated Trump(read: he actually gave the Republican voterbase too much credit and did not expect them to nominate a meme candidate) and stuck to his early analysis that candidates like Trump almost always fade and lose by the middle of the nomination. Trump was an outlier, and very few people predicted his rise.

here's your (You)

90870129
>you'll do anything to persuade yourself that facts matter

OH GOD!
I AM THE DUMB ONE!

That is actually correct. You see there is no pre-determination because that is just a story too, but the world can only be one way.

You can't step in the same river twice.

We only fool ourselves into thinking we control anything. However, since we can only know our universe through a story, then we might as well tell a proper story.

>ID: ZOUT
literally means salt in Dutch top kek

Thanks a lot!

So trump should win so we have Cred Forums running the White House?

>Because he doesn't give a shit / doesn't think he needs to do it. Or is just directing it all to the companies that he owns. Or both.

kek

You say job; I say pyramid scheme or chain letter.
Same thing in the end...

It's because nate clay wakes up every morning feeling either angry or resigned, and trump's odds are awful or amazing depending on his mood.

It's almost like there was a recent event that would cause Trump to drop in the polls

>I'd be impressed but instead, he looks at the polls a few days before election day and tells you who will win. Anybody can do that.

Then you should have no problem correctly predicting the exact outcome a week ahead of time.

>If you can't make the prediction from months out of the election then you're not really good at predicting.

If you can predict the winner months ahead of time, you're not predicting anything. You're giving pure guesses unless the race is so utterly lopsided that one side never stood a chance. Predicting months ahead of time means you aren't working with any information and you're just pulling shit out of your ass. Even if you could accurately predict the flow of the election, unless you could do this every time months ahead of time then it's not worth much. And nobody can. So we use the best thing available: statistical poll analysis.

Pence...You meant to say Pence.

wow... 4 chan in the white house....

Nate Sulfur BTFO

The left deluding themselves into thinking Trump isn't winning this will make them fail to turn out, so that's fine.

We are under psyop, man.
We must counterattact

>No argument

Of course only Jews understand them, they are gods chosen people.

>Then you should have no problem correctly predicting the exact outcome a week ahead of time.
I won't if I keep track of polls like he does.
>You're giving pure guesses
No, you're not. You can go by registration info, crowd size, right track/wrong track feelings, historical precedent, and much more. Romney states will not be lost by Trump. We know that now and Trump is a populist that tears down party ID walls so a number of Democrats are switching and voting for Trump. He's garnering 1/6 dems in Florida, for example.

Nate Silver probably has had inside info for years on which swing states which party had rigged.

90% of states are clearly going one way or another.

If you have to predict 5 states then on pure luck your chance to get them all right is 1 in 32.

Therefore with a population of almost 320M, there are 10M US citizens who could pick every state correctly by pure luck.

Because people are despereate and they're putting their hopes into more and more extreme leaders just because they claim to be anti-establishement when they're anything but that.

After things cool off they tend to go for the lesser of two evils.Trump's probably saving an ''amazing'' speech for the last debate so people get riled up again and hopefully vote for him.The more angry people get the more they want things to CHANGE, wether that's for the worst or not,doesn't matter.
See: BREXIT.People who voted remain were mostly between 18-30, pretty middle-class and well-off.Those who voted to exit the EU were the working class,even tough the EU has protected worker rights and wages far more than the UK goverment ever has.So they voted against their own interests.

People don't know jack shit about politics or economics.If you do,you don't browse Cred Forums or get your education from memes and youtube personalities.

Aggregate Poll Averager Silver has become a poll pundit who manually adjusts his graphs after each news and polling cycle.

Here is the current electoral map based upon current polling using RealClear's aggregate poll section (which Silver probably also uses):

Florida
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5963.html

Ohio
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/oh/ohio_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5970.html
North Carolina:
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nc/north_carolina_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-5951.html

Colorado
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/co/colorado_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5974.html

Nevada
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nv/nevada_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-6004.html

HOLY FUCK STOP WITH THE CONFUSING OF ABSENTEE AND EARLY VOTING

GOP is leading absentee requests by typical amounts. We don't know what the in-person early voting is because it hasn't started.

50/50... he's either right or he's wrong

No, he perfectly called every state's results in one re-election year of a sitting president (aka, some of the most politically predictable years ever)

I mean he did his homework and everything, but his wildly inaccurate predictions about Trump and the GOP nomination seem to suggest he was only able to be impartial then because the polls were telling him what he wanted to hear

nate cucks dont think, thats why they read 538 so someone "thinks" for them

(((as if)))

It must be a global conspiracy no way people realize how retarded trump is after he got btfo monday xD

fivethirtyeight.com/features/let-caster-run-we-should-celebrate-semenyas-extraordinary-talent/

the great scam of 538 is mentally slow people think its "data based"

notice the above article is basically horse shit..... but its 538 so its "smart"

I'd say so. Maybe 120%, 130% tops

>nate silver

Silver is more bullish on Trump than any other outlet and has been since he won the Republican Party nomination.

>EVERY STATE

you are seriously a moron, most states are already decided. you should honestly be ashamed of how fucking dumb and clueless you are

Correct.

As a Hillary supporter, Nate Silver has made me more nervous about Trump's chances than any other poll-taker.

Because he ruined Nate Ag's streak. He's massively butthurt about it and knows that if Trump wins it will destroy his reputation and then he will be relegated to being a talking head, which is all he ever was anyway.

Because he is trying to get legitimacy, this why I always find it suspicious when Trump rises in his predictions(then abruptly falls). This is the third time this has happened in two months.

nate's retarded, and autistic

It wasn't a referendum on workers rights, it was a referendum on dirty Romanians flooding the country