HELLO DARKNESS MY OLD FRIEND

anyone geniuinly feel bad for 538?

its becoming a joke

>+50%
>4%
>50%
>27%

what a joke

these odds move way too much

maybe its fake drama for the mentally slow?

I dunno, mang. SEMI is full of dindus and sandgoogles and shieet.

That said, I've seen way more Trump swag, and exactly three Hillary bumper stickers, so even though my peer group is full of #nevertrumps, I'm cautiously optimistic.

>leave was not predicted by polling meme enabled
I personally believe your and idiot.

too late

He's talking about this garbage

No, the American people are a joke.

Its the massive numbers of butthurt never Trumps and #Bernouts causing autistic swings in the polls.

i think everybody will say that it will be like brexit and then Trump will lose

>shills claiming trump lost the debate

in reality, the corrupt media lost the debate. Not much changed between the two contenders.

The level of discourse that the candidates partake in is pathetic. That's a given. The blatant show of collusion between the moderator and Clinton was the most powerful message sent by the debate.

Trump also did not show his true power level in the debate, whereas clinton is basically a reanimated corpse at this point regurgitating her memorized talking points.

>just in time to see it all

wed lad, first off
>your and idiot
nice

second off, your pic proves me right and you wrong.
>55 remain 45 leave
>june 22

kill yourself

I want to believe. I think he could pull it off. He needs to be focusing on CO, MI, and FL imo

Trumptards on suicide watch.

>trump wins next debate

Just wait. Its gonna be fucked.

Big shifts happen when, for several weeks, the meme candidate doesn't say much...and then he appears on live television to 100 million people and makes a blathering fool of himself. Has a tendency to result in dramatic shifts in swing states, which causes his odds to go down "bigly".

I don't expect a Trumptard to get it. Just continue your circle jerk on your own little corner of the internet while people that actually understand probability and math do the real thinking.

Trump's gonna take Cali. Cartoon man told me so.

Fuck bro. I think we might not get to maga :(

maybe you should worry about you're own country you guys almost elected a fucking green...

>almost as many democrats as r and independents combined

ahahah holy shit

how do people fall for this

i think trump i going to win, bc a lot of people that say hillary are just saying that because they dont like trump and dont want to be judged for not going to vote, but on the other hand if you are a trump voter you already shown you powerlevel and its almost certain you are going to vote

Nate Silver:

Hillary has 90% chance of winning!
Trump has 56% chance of winning!
Clinton has 75% chance of winning!

Why the fuck should I pay attention to this shit in September when it dramatically flies all over the place every day? Am I really to believe Clinton had a 90% chance in August and Trump a 56% chance a few days ago? Somehow I doubt that much of the electorate is changing their minds for that kind of swing.

Jesus fucking christ

early requests in Florida are skewed because of all the old people, so don't be so sure

Trump got frantic on the Iraq invasion support question and the birther question, other than that he handed her ass to her.

That being said, everyone I talk to understands Trump wasn't in politics and didn't cast an invasion vote like Hillary did and all the birther shit started in her camp. They also understand Trump was really fighting a biased lefty shitstain moderator, who didn't ask Hillary about her Iraq invasion vote or her campaign giving birth to the birther question.

Trump won the debate, period.

And we're still days away from the post-debate polls coming out, this is going to be hilarious.

Fuck off shll

Bookmakers had Leave at 10/1 on the day of the referendum.

How is that different to previous elections?

He dominated on the economy

>Somehow I doubt that much of the electorate is changing their minds for that kind of swing.

That's because you're a dumb shit and don't understand how the electoral college works and how much it shifts odds when candidates start losing swing states. It's not that drastically huge numbers of voters are switching their minds constantly, it's that key voters in key states are shifting their favor which has a much bigger impact on the odds. You're acting like all voters just stay firm in who they're voting for, and a sizeable chunk of the population doesn't.

Things change over time, retard. And those changes affect the odds. You can ignore polls until a week before election if you want, but they do give you the "pulse" of the race. That pulse points to a Clinton victory and lots of Cred Forumstard tears in November.

This was a witch hunt on Trump and he had to play Defense. The problem is there will be no right wing moderator to rip her a new one. Martha is a liberal whore and Walace is a Democrat. Republicans need to get at least one R moderator or have two moderators one R one D to follow up on the other guy.

>odds changing 10% in 1 day for no reason
wow that's epic

Not even close. Trump doesn't know jack shit about trade OR the economy. His understanding of those issues is surface-level at best.

Elizabeth Warren had a great explanation of it on MSNBC earlier today. There are real problems with our trade policy, particularly TPP, but Trump doesn't really talk about them because he doesn't really understand the issues. Only the truly moronic and uninformed voter believes that Trump is the guy we need to be voting for.

yes, for the well-informed viewer it is correct to take this opinion, being able to read between the lines and detect the subtle implications of their words.

it's on the bluepilled level of discourse, where the emotional impact of soundbytes reigns supreme, that it was more of a tie. unfortunately, a well indoctrinated normie's vote counts just as much as that of anyone else.

Most all polls "oversample democrats", and yet those polling numbers have proven extremely accurate. The "oversampling dems, undersampling independents" meme is just a meme. They can already adjust polls based on those shifts and account for them. Mittens apologists used the same excuse back in 2012.

No he didn't.

Whatever you say. Cling to Nate Silver if you're that desperation for some hope that Hillary won't lose.

I think so too but not enough to get complacent.

It's going to be a close fight.

Thanks for correcting the record

>Wiki "Nate Silver"
>Ctrl + F: "jew"

Every fucking time.

Even many detractors said Trump won on the economy. Especially trade. Clinton didn't know what to say, but trumps message appealed to many Americans. Nice try shill.

>OH, NC, FL, NV, ME-2, NE-2
>Red
Nice try Cletus.

>ohio not red

ahahahahah just stop

>the bluepilled level of discourse
Most of the country is past this concerning Hillary at this point. Literally everyone knows she's corrupt. Blue ass Bernie Bros included.

>Not even close. Trump doesn't know jack shit about trade OR the economy. His understanding of those issues is surface-level at best.

He doesn't, but even I thought he won the early debate. Not because he had better "facts", but because his bullishness was working in his favor and his presence made him seem commanding on economics. He made a good impression of being a strong businessman that knows what he's doing. He may not have a good understanding of it, but his theater is what mattered in that segment. I had him winning the early parts of the debate.

The problem is he kept bulling on all of these issues and it became clear over time that he was throwing haymakers at nothing and couldn't control himself. It made him look desperate, defensive, and irresponsible when he couldn't admit fault.

You could talk about how in reality, he's wrong on these issues, but the truth is that theater matters in debates, and he WAS dominating the theater early on. The tide shifted after around 30 minutes when he started blathering on about pointless shit and making key errors in interrupting her.

>False flagging this hard.

If the in depth answers is "it's bad" and at a surface level he understands that, who the fuck cares.

>the race will be just like 2012, guys, we swear!

Why do they do this?
Do they think Obama got a massive turnout because of his policies?

>There are real problems with our trade policy, particularly TPP

Trump talked the shit out of exactly this during the debate, fuck off retard.

oh look,

its the betakuk's favorite website,

538 reminds me of unskewedpolls.com of 2012

Trump had literally zero substance on trade or the economy. His claim that we are "losing jobs" is completely false. In fact, we are in the midst of a record-breaking streak of job increases, not losses. The economy is expanding, not receding. The fact that you don't know this proves that you know nothing about basic economics or the current state of the American economy.

Simply repeating "muh NAFTA" over and over again does not mean he "won on trade." It means that he repeated the same erroneous talking points over and over again. All the data shows that NAFTA was a net positive for the American economy. The problem is that not everybody shared in the benefits equally, and this is the result of conservative fiscal policy more than anything else.

Get a clue, kiddo.

>Everything is 2012 guys!

WAHAHAHAHAHA, fags! At this point it's either Hillaryious or Dumb.

The USA are meant to be destroyed. Not only you're still not going Revolution, you actually seem to seriously consider one of the candidates to be your President? One could say, it already was hopless for you when you had a nigger for President or that retarded and incestious Spawn before that... I agree, just burn down and cease to exist. Shame to me for ever having the slightest hope the "Brave People" of America would free us from this dystopian world regime by becoming an example of Freedom, an example for what is good and right. Now you at best steal resources like Oil from weaker Countries and Bomb the civilists while yelling "For Freedom!" to mock your victims. I'm disgusted, just die, you earned it!

>W-whatever, man. M-more like Nate Periodic Table Element...

Great argument, faggot.

I guess it isn't really. But in 2012 R absentee ballots had an edge over D ballots and Obama still carried 59% of them. So don't count an R early request ballot as a Trump vote and vice-versa.

Was this really worth a nickel?

Why don't mods delete this retarded spam.

Maybe for the uninformed voter it might seem that way, sure, but if you understand the issues then you know that Trump barely understands the issue at all.

I honestly love America,americans(true ones) and Trump.

Why is it ,Cred Forums ?

>you live in a world where ameriboos are a minority even in Amerifat

nice argument, kiddo.

go do your homework.

very true, dems are normally over sampled and independents under sampled due to voting habits. But is this a typical election with the usual voting habits? Remains to be seen.

>german

youtube.com/watch?v=MIdUSqsz0Io

>Muh Free Trade meme!!!

>we are in the midst of a record-breaking streak of job increases

what sector are these job increases in
what is the total number of jobs relative to pre-2008? I bet it's substantially more part-time service jobs and still almost none salary-based jobs

>All the data shows that NAFTA was a net positive for the American economy
[citation needed]

Florida has went Blue the last 2 elections.
It's now a Blue State.

Poll this time last election even had Mitt winning.

NC is a toss up, they went Blue in 08' then back Red, could go either way.

But it's so known fact factories in the rust belt are moving to Mexico and that's all the argument he really needs

>538 reminds me of unskewedpolls.com of 2012

Except 538 existed in 2012, and got the race correct despite all of the Cred Forums shilling all of the exact same arguments they're using now(undersampling independents, unskewed polls, hidden white male voters who will come out in swarms on election day, etc), and they were the main website debunking "unskewedpolls".

A more accurate comparison would be unskewedpolls and longroom.com, another website they debunked this year that Trumptards were trying to back.

Difference being that 538 was right on all states.
RCP was wrong on swing states.
The unskewed polls w/e they were called were wrong basically everywhere. "Yeah guise les giv Rmoney 10% for nothing :DDDDDD"

>Polling analysis is spam! Delete opposing opinions! This really triggers me! REEE!!!!!

lol so back in 08 since Nevada went red both times no one believed it was a red state

Is anybody else going to kill themselves if Trump doesn't win?

>Hello, my name is Shaquita Jackson and I would just like to ask you a few questions about the election.

>etc...

>Ok, now that I have your name, address, social security number, social media information, and place of employment; I'd like to ask if you're voting for Hillary Clinton or LITERALLY HITLER?

very reasonable comment
(You)

just like brexit...shit poll

>You forget Latinos came out in drove to vote for Rubio (WHO WON THE FLORIDA PRIMARY)

>Thinking all those Latino will now vote for Trump

Probably going to kill myself regardless if trump does win. He's just keeping me around for a while since he's funny

>Polls show Trump losing.
SKEWED, CTR, JEWS, REEEEEEE.
>Polls show Trump in a toss up to leading.
Seems legit.
>Polls again show Trump losing.
SKEWED, CTR, JEWS, REEEEEEE. MUH SILENT MAJORITY, MUH MONSTER VOTE.

No you cuck.

Rubio didn't win Florida... If I remember correctly trump won every county except one

Ya the aftermath will be nothing but liberal blood. You think 200 million men and Women with guns are going to let you autists destroy our Country. You fucking liberals fucked up Europe and your trying to do it here. The giver of Bread forgot more then you will ever know.

>back in 08 since Nevada went red both times
lol No, it didn't you idiot.

>Once debate changes this many americans opinions
Literally how retarded are your people?

i think everyone 'got the race correct' in 2012, i wasnt on /pol, but to think romney would win was quite a stretch.

First election I'll be voting in. Had a chance to vote for Romney, but didn't give a shit.

New voters are going to come out so hardcore, Kike Silver won't know what happened.

Inb4 someone claims they weren't rooting for Romney.

No you dumb fucking nigger I meant back in 2008 when obongo was running not once did peope believe he couldn't win Nevada simply because bush got it in 2000 and 08

bender

bender

Bender

The large swing is due to Florida tipping from slightly Trump to slightly Clinton, without Florida Trump has no readily apparent path to victory.

Plus the 538 model is about as twitchy as a Chihuahua drinking coffee.

bender

sorry you're tight Trump won Florida
but NV was Blue in 08' and12'
270towin.com/states/Nevada

>Ya the aftermath will be nothing but liberal blood. You think 200 million men and Women with guns are going to let you autists destroy our Country.

Yep. They let them do it in 2008, and again in 2012, and yet again you fags will threaten seceding from the states, realize you have very comfortable homes and lives, and go back to bitching on Cred Forums. Business as usual. It will be cute watching you guys go through the same empty threats, though.

PARKINSON'S SMOKING GUN

>youtube.com/watch?v=925ihXI1lkE

>youtube.com/watch?v=925ihXI1lkE

>youtube.com/watch?v=925ihXI1lkE

>HE-HE WON THE DEBATE RIGHT GUIES?

SeeI was pointing out the retarded logic in believing since Florida went blue twice in a row, doesn't mean it can't go red. Since no one believed Nevada was a red state simply because it went red in 00 and 08

Nevada polls redder than it really is. What you think all those hookers and casino workers in Vegas that work nights will be awake when a poll calls?

People thought NV was going to be barely red and Harry Reid will get ousted. Yeah no.

bender

>let me take something complex and reduce it to something asinine
It's not about changing opinions. It's about:
A) People who were previously undecided
B) How likely people are to vote

It is not a simple head-count that these predictions are based off of, with 3/10 saying one thing on Tuesday and something else on Friday.

when (not if) hillary wins, there will be a global war and it will start somewhere in balkans (casually)

capture this, because it's truth

>second off, your pic proves me right and you wrong.
No it doesn't, retard.

>wed lad, first off
>>your and idiot
>nice

What did he mean by this?

Come on over to this side of the fence, Trump shills.

>i think everyone 'got the race correct' in 2012, i wasnt on /pol

You would be wrong. I was here, and the same "delusional bravado" that Trump is experiencing now is the same as Romney was receiving in 2012.

It's similar to how a few years from now, there will be fags just like you that say "lol 2016...nobody ACTUALLY expected Trump to win".

The truth is mittens actually had a significantly closer race to Obama than Trump has had to Clinton. Trump has spent the majority of his candidacy at 20-30% odds of winning and being 4-10 points down. Mittens was 4 points down from Obama at some of his WORST dips and average a 2 to 3 point deficit.

It's funny that people say that Romney was an obvious loss when Trump is in a significantly worse position.

Blacks didn't vote for Obama because he was black.

:^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^)

Gee whiz, you've really convinced me, thanks for correcting the record!!

Obama actually did better than the polls indicated and you can take that 2 ways.

>There are more democrats than people think.

or

>Obama mobilized his base while getting new people to vote and Romney failed to mobilize his base.

The 1st spells disaster for Trump while the 2nd gives hope to Trump. I guess we will see soon what happens.

considering how Big the wins were it's safe to assume FL will go blue again.

also Hilary had more votes than Trump. You're only hoping that the people who did not vote for Trump will now vote for him.

...

These numbers don't tell the true story of PA, but they show it.

In PA this year, hundreds of thousands of voters have changed parties. Many independents registered democrat to vote for Bernie over Bernie. Seeing dems BTFO repubs this primary with that wide of margin assuredly confirms this to me.

Dems will barely add to their numbers for the election, hell.. they may have even less turnout.

PA WILL TURN RED. THANK YOU TO THE INDIES THAT HATE HILLARY.

Dude... what.

Look absolutely anywhere online.

All you see if TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP

Literally everywhere.

He has massive rallies, and shit loads of new voters. There are way more "red pilled" people than you think, it's just that they haven't gone full autist like us on Cred Forums

I wonder how close LA times will be.

Bernie over Hillary
>9-dubs-2-1-0

Geez whiz, grat argument fampai! Thanks for staying Nimble™!

I can assume for a fact that trump can get at least fucking 30k votes from the other candidates to beat Hillary. Reds had a far better turnout despite being more candidates. And yes I think some of Rubio/Cruz/Kasich will support trump

I think party lines may be shaky this year. It will be interesting to see.

>recent affiliation polls show 33D, 29R, 34I

>see this trash

lol, how fucking dumb do they think people are

90% of those people will. They might be religious cucks but they arent voting for fucking Hillary.

And they weren't big wins Dumbass Romney barely lost Florida by less than 1%

That's not how dubs work. Anything that's not the ending digits is not dubs, trips, quads, etc. By that logic
99999998 would be septs.

The delusional bravado Romney got was same kind of thing Hillary is experiencing know. He was much higher in the polls and people underestimated Obama. Anyone looking at the race should have known it was obvious Obama was going to win against Romney, even with the polls showing as they did. And honestly I think the same now. Trump is exciting, he's something different, and Hilary can't pull her supporters together in enough excitement to make her seem worth voting for. Not to mention her largest demographic, being young Americans, are starting to vote 3rd party. I don't see her winning, she's blown in and Trump has way more potential at gathering momentum. And I honestly think Trump is an Authoritarian shitlord. This election cycle has only been good because it's been funny.

sorry i was talking about NV, in that sense.

>He has massive rallies

Rally attendance has never been a good reflection of vote counts. Republicans usually get favorable rally counts, and yet they still lose.

>Look absolutely anywhere online.
>All you see if TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP

The problem is that most people talking about him think he's a retard. Not all publicity is good publicity. Clinton is a nobody and actually a very shitty candidate, but Trump is so ACTIVELY bad that a passive Clinton is winning over him.

It's funny because almost any other Republican candidate would have fared better against her in a General Election, but Trump won over retards with his shouting and "I got muh big balls flying out" debate style. So you guys put in the biggest loser.

WTF? I'm shilling for Hillary now

Conservatives don't just switch over to Hillary... Trump will get most conservative voters, however reluctant they might be since some do not understand the real gravity of this election.

Democrats are shaky. Most independents know how shit Hillary Clinton is. The fucking democrats wanted an independent instead of a Democrat.

Really should make the Democraps think.

Well now I feel dumb. I only used Nevada as en example more californiacucks and spics coming from Mexico have made it even Harder.

Did they just go full shill? I've been following the RCP polls and none of the state polls that have come in seem to indicate any major shift. The overall polls are more or less about the same, but how can they say trump dropped 20%.

Is he any less likely to win any of the major swing states? Polling has been showing more typically safe blue states going 'too close to call' like Minnesota, Michigan and even fucking Connecticut.

>i wasnt on Cred Forums

You sure weren't.

>The delusional bravado Romney got was same kind of thing Hillary is experiencing know.

No, it isn't. Because contrary to Romney, Hillary has been consistently winning in polls since the beginning. I'm not even going to respond to the rest because this is such a severely stupid statement by itself. I realize you're trying to frame things to be good for Trump, but there is a limit for what I'm willing to entertain.

Trump guys, don't be fooled by ctr cunts

I'm just talking about enthusiasm. I'm not certain either. I'm definitely curious to see if Hillary can actually mobilize people.

>usually
Republicans won 5 of the last 9 elections and 2 of the last 4. I just stopped here from the main page but wanted to confirm for you that, yes, you are an idiot.

this meme picture. So we didn't want Obama to win and hoped he would lose, wow what a fucking shock. Nothing is funny here Since it fucked our country for 8 more years.

>Hillary had more votes
>Between Bernie and O' Who gives a fuck
>Trump had to beat Rubio, Cruz, Kaisch, and Jeb
>B-b-but you can't guarantee 20,000 of those over a million other Republicans will vote for Trump!

Holy fucking Christ kys dude

>all this ass-talking
t. your ass

Your asshurt is hilarious. You were wrong about Romney and you're wrong about Trump. I'll be laughing at you on election day.

Why do you support Hillary?

No they don't.

Most people talking about him silently agree with him, and a few loudly state their opinions and post things like "Trump 2016".

You'd be surprised how many will vote for him simply because Hillary is literally the worst candidate to ever run for president.

WTF? I'm gonna #dumpher for Trump

This never gets old. I really hope we have one for 2016 after the election. The Cred Forumstard tears will be delicious.

We get it, you're 16 and trolling for teh lulz. Go back to Cred Forums and come back on election night then

She's not Trump and the third parties are full retard.

Substitute Clinton for Obama, that's what you'll be typing out in 2014.

Meant 2024. I'm tired.

vox day uses a great expression for the kinds of people that make up the readership of 538 he calls them midwits smart enough to understand they might be a little smarter than average but not smart enough to be self aware about how average they are

Yea probably.

Does reality hurt you? Does it scare you? Does it make you cry? Your big orange baboon is going to flop hard just like Romney. Your safe space won't protect you then.

>So we didn't want Obama to win and hoped he would lose, wow what a fucking shock.

Right...just like you don't want Clinton to win and are hoping she will lose, so you do all this false bravado shit to try to convince yourselves that he stands a better chance than he does. Same shit. It's almost eerie how much history is repeating itself.

It triggers me but I'm not into /r9k/ lead the way

>Why do you support Hillary?

I don't.

He doesn't have a better chance where did I say that. Everyone knows trump only has like small % chance to win but fuck should we just convert to Reddit already and start supporting her

>asshurt
You mean butthurt

i'm with her because she's not trump

That's right. You're a Trump supporter. You can't even find acceptance from the malcontents on /r9k/. All you can do is hide here.

>muh silent voters

That sure did a lot for Romney. The white males will just come pouring out on election day and all the polls are lying!

I guarantee I won't be surprised.

I said what I meant.

>Romney = Trump
>Clinton = Obama
the biggest delusion is people believe this

HAHAHAHA. You realize the silent majority refers to dead people, right? THEY CAN'T VOTE, IDIOT.

Even I can admit Trumps chances are slim to none.

You best buy some guns before Hillary floods this country with 3rd worlders.

If there ever was a shy tory effect, it would definitely be now.

>democrats
>thinking

You're right; Trump is actually doing WORSE than Romney was. As it turns out, when the electorate says your party is too crazy for the white house, the answer is not to go even crazier.

Edgy

>not smart enough to be self aware about their own (lack of) intelligence
>coming from a leaf
>on Dunning-Kruger, the board

...

>That's right. You're a Trump supporter. You can't even find acceptance from the malcontents on /r9k/. All you can do is hide here.
And people wonder why there may be silent Trump supporters.

>muh Trump rallies are a predictor

You see this poll? Those who attend Trump rallies are here. Or maybe even lower. They are not undecideds on the margins, they are committed, with numerous people in those crowds going from city to city to watch the show.

The show. That should tell you something. They're not trekking around the country sating their thirst for Trump's policy positions, uttered with elegance. They're on a feefee bender.

>unskew the polls!

Fucking lol, you people

No. I'm just asking that you be realistic about this. If you are, great. There are a lot of delusional people on this board that actually think far from being an underdog, that he is currently winning and has always been winning this race.

There aren't, idiot. There weren't silent Romney supporters, either.

ok but here's the thing.
She will win even if she looses. FL, OH, NV and NC

I really don't care i'm not voting for either, but i'm for common sense.

She's already won.

>Trump is LITERALLY a criminal with ties to communism

There goes Florida!

Are you implying that's a bad thing? In comparison to Hillary's rallies that's fuckin great

Because Romney wasn't controversial, he was just unlikable. Trumps hidden support is well established fact.

Trump's recently uncovered ILLEGAL transactions with the Castro regime will cost him Florida.

I never knew trump was so close to zero a few times.

Wow this really changed mind, i mean some random neet made a chart that shows me i am a loser for supporting trump.

Guess its time to change sides, so i can be a winner.

>well established fact
Established by "unskewed polls"? Your weasel words won't help you here. There is no fact that supports your assertion. You're just in denial, like the rest of you delusional Trump supporters.

>Romney = Trump
lol

So many people say they would respect a Romney supporter, but not a Trump supporter and they deserve the harassment they get. He is the next greatest evil to this country after all. They definitely deserve to get their cars keyed. I'm not saying for sure there are many silent Trump supporters, but saying that's equal to Romney is laughable. It was more than easy to be an open Romney supporter.

>Trumps hidden support is well established fact.

Yes, we all love the scientific findings from pepe's gut and asshole. Always very reliable.

While I could grant you that Trump is likely to have some silent voters, the problem is you're assuming it would be enough to overturn the polls and you have absolutely nothing to support that. It's blatant hope and wishing for a miracle because you essentially have nothing else to rely on now. Romney went down the same desperation path. Exact same stops and everything.

You're right, Trump isn't Romney. Romney was doing much better than Trump this time in 2012.

The fuck are you on about?

...

it's ogre

the trumptards only hope is that pasty greasy fuck locked in britainstan

The MoE on this is Nate Silver.

>Are you implying that's a bad thing?
Yes. Because the enthusiasm levels of the same people seeing Trump again and again, people who can only vote once in their state and are microscopic in comparison to the sheer number of voters in a state, has being used throughout this election as an anecdotal evidence slight-of-hand to get people to ignore any reality arrived at by scientific observation or reason.

The commitment of a certain number of Trumpfags does not make up for the fact that he was always the worst option for the Republicans to run.

What does that giant space jew use to speak?

Reminder peope are here for the (yous) they aren't shills, or CTR or kikes, just peope who don't really care and just want Lulz. Just trolling

Yeah, I forgot all those people in those pictures are the same people in every rally. My bad.

Nice evasion. Really makes my neurons fire.

This was a well-done CTR thread, I'll have to admit; if only for the skewing of facts and weird phraseology.

"Feefee Bender"

TOP KEK

Now kill yourselves.

>statistics are evasion
Trump supporters are truly desperate.

that story has been dropped. Check Breitbart. haha. HILLARY SHILLS BTFO!

Also, nate silver is a kike

>by my own definition, if you disagree with me, you are automatically wrong
Nice, epic, I like it

Partially true. I made this thread because I both hate how dumb and unscientific Cred Forums and conservatives in general can be with all of these shitty arguments, and I also love watching you guys squirm with shitty low grade mental gymnastics to try to spin this into a Trump victory. Bit of both.

I'm actually a conservative myself, though not a big fan of Trump other than his nationalism. I just can't tolerate blatant stupidity, and this is the easiest way to draw out that stupidity.

This is just embarrassing. Even if Trump loses at least we can take consolation in knowing that the media showed its true face to the whole world in order to bring him down. I doubt they'll ever recover from this.

>running a progressive centrist = going crazier

The Republican party is what isn't going to recover, idiot.

>Breitbart
You tried

I'll be remembering this:
>First election I'll be voting in
Political acumen is not garnered through systemic apathy and ignorance.

...

green facism is the future

>Trump
>progressive-centrist
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

The republican party will just never be cuckservative or neo-cuck again. and thats a good thing desu famalam

3rd party voting among Millenials has sky rocketed in polls, Hilary is obviously the establishment choice which leads to very little excitement. Tell me how exactly I'm talking out my ass. The fact of the matter is Hilary and the Democratic party is falling by the wayside. More and more scandals continue to pile on them, more and more corruption continues to be found, and anyone that thinks the Democratic party can survive this shit storm, especially for this election, are out of their minds.
I would almost guarantee Trump wins, unless he blows these next debates, which is possible. It just makes sense, he has all the momentum going for him, he knows how to raise up excitement and emotion, and honestly I think the Black Community is going to be far more reluctant to vote democrat this time around. A lot of this is speculation, I won't pretend it's not, but the facts are there and I don't see how Hilary can win unless Trump self-destructs.

Srawman.

He's not really that centrist unless you mean in a conservative/liberal social issues manner. He is heavily authoritarian, and thus not really a centrist.

Trump actually is too liberal for my tastes, but it's not the liberal/conservative line that people find him "crazy" in. It's his temperament that he's apparently so proud of that make people find him unhinged, as well as his extreme big government nationalism which both left and right wing can find unappealing.

Two on one in the debate and Killary still lost.

No matter who wins, we win. Hillary = accelerationism. Bring it on, fuckers.

They'll never be relevant again and that's a good thing.
>Lost
>Up four points in the polls
KEK

It took me literally three weeks of researching political ideologies to find that Ron Paul was the best political candidate in ages. I was like 14 or 15.

I could have voted for Romney, but didn't because he's another globalist shill.

To reply directly to your statement:

Ok, remember this you creepy weirdo libtard. Just don't track me 1984, authoritarian style.

>he thinks the hacker known as Cred Forums knows how to code

Fuck. Comment above.

cbsnews.com/news/early-voting-surge-benefits-hillary-clinton/

>Republicans are ahead in ballot requests, 43 percent to 38 percent. That’s a much narrower gap than in 2008, the most recent in which comparable data was available. At that time, the Republicans held a solid lead in requests, 51 percent to 32 percent, according to data analyzed for the AP by Catalist

The the margins trump is winning this by is far lower than in 2008.

>Republicans won 5 of the last 9 elections and 2 of the last 4. I just stopped here from the main page but wanted to confirm for you that, yes, you are an idiot.

You are the idiot that can't read. I didn't say "Republicans usually lose". I said usually they have favorable rally attendance, and yet they still lose even with superior rally attendance. Your post even attests to that.

So go on back to fucking off out of this thread, and next time take more than 5 seconds to read a post before you make a stupid response.

Ohio will go red, don't meme yourself

HELLO ROTHCHILD MY OLD FRIEND
RIGGED POLLS SAY I WIN AGAIN

Trump is doing better than Romney. Romneys peak on 538 in 2012 was 38%.

Trump is practically guaranteed to pass the 206 ev mark as well.

>Three weeks of "researching political ideologies"
>Thinks he knew jack shit
fucking kek

>dodging the argument is not evasion
Welcome to kindergarten

by your map, your saying all he has to do is get colorado , or nh or ANYTHING ELSE and he wins......

he's got way to many paths to victory for me......

im out

>implying the republican party had a chance of ever winning with cuckservatives again.
Seriously, the winds are blowing towards Nationalism. The Republican party will only start reflecting that more and more and it will appeal to the whole white population because of it.

No, he needs to win all the toss-ups AND additional states beyond that. Learn to read the map.

The Democratic party is dying and the republican party is turning Authoritarian.

IF HE WINS ALL THE TOSSUPS ALL HE HAS TO DO IS WIN ONE MORE STATE

NOT ADDITIONAL STATES DUMBASS

And now over eight years later, the discontent has only worsened.

Everyone knows Democrats are shit except for brainwashed college liberal arts majors and minorities who partake in illegal activities and degeneracy.

It's over faggot. Trump wins with college-educated voters who make over 35k

You lose CTR faggot fuckstain com dumpster shit cunt nigger bitch tits faggot derpy shitstain lord of the fucking idiots fucker nigger kike faggot

>No more free shit for your favorite nigger that fucks your wife.

I'll give Nate credit, after the primary he admitted he screwed up, that 538 had plunged deep into the depths, cast aside their dignity and wrote punditry articles.

>Ok, remember this you creepy weirdo libtard
I was a volunteer on Paul's '08 campaign, but whatever. And Paul was a terrible candidate, squeaky and fringe, who never had a chance of taking more than about 10%. I knew that going in from years of having an active interest in politics, not from taking time off from smoking up to muddle through a few webpages, but there was reason behind the madness.

All Trump's candidacy is going to accomplish after his expected loss to Hillary is to hand the party back to the establishment, and the utter destruction of legitimate forces of opposition, when half the GOP's voters go off on tangents built up from their ignorant, delusional expectations.

Do you not realize that winning every one of those toss-ups is a difficult task in the first place?? And to win additional states beyond that? You are hopelessly optimistic if you think that's going to happen.

they way you talk i can tell you jacked off while clinton anally fisted trump last debate.

>state
>color
Yeah fucking right

hillary was polling 20% ahead of bernie in some polls in MI the week of the vote
bernie won by 1.5%

Why these threads then? You seem to relinquish in the idea of Trump losing.

there is no hope for the shitty political system you idiot. anyone who energizes nationalism and political correctness is positive.

and ron paul is a hugely liberal canidate accept for abortion and "economics"

Bernie had huge rallies that rivaled Trumps. Don't mean shit.

>All Trump's candidacy is going to accomplish after his expected loss to Hillary is to hand the party back to the establishment

I really don't think this will be the case, Trump has touched a nerve that really resonates with the people that vote Republican. If he loses then that itch will just get worse over the next 4 years and the next candidates will definitely have to address the Immigration issue at a level at least equal to Trump in order to even have a chance.

The best part is that no false flag terrorist attack could change this attitude now that everyone knows where the democrats stand on muslims.

OP is a fag

I literally just when over to nate bronze's website and the odds are not 72-28.

Stop overstating your case shillbots.

Trump may win, trump may lose.

One thing remains the same. I'm going to the polls and voting for him regardless of your gay little psyops.

It's like after August people gradually forgot what a moron Trump was and now they suddenly remembered.

And yet I've never met an actual Hillary supporter in the real world

He's winning all of them, niglet.

okay dude have fun thinking that

>posts by this id: 23
>opinions changed: 0

this is why you're a virgin

...

Nice fucking argument you got there. Rubio lost the Florida primary, shit for brains.

Even though I think trump did well in the debate, thats a damn fine pepe

Saved

You are a fucking nigger, literally nobody is going to vote for that fucking stupid rancid bitch

There's nobody in the fucking universe that wants to vote for an old hag. Everyone I know is voting for Trump. Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania are Trump territory.

White people and old people decide the elections, because they actually go and vote. Turnout is going to be key. Niggers won't show up to vote.

I think trumps gonna win by a very narrow margin. But what happens to America, and the west for that matter if he loses? With this be the lefts final victory?

No they didn't you disinformation-peddling shill. Early voting was 43-40 Dem in 2012 and Obama won by half a point.

I live in Britain. It was widely taken for granted that remain would win. Polls around the time were leaning towards remain.

I'm sure you can find scaremonger poll results that were used to get people to vote remain but that doesn't reflect the feeling or overall polling at the time.

It's pretty clear from your post that you don't know the first thing about American politics. I suggest you quite while you're ahead, because you are really embarrassing yourself with this kind of nonsense.

there needs to be a creation of new countries via succession of states. this has been known for a long time by now.

>thinks I'm taking CTR thread seriously

This guy. This fucking guy.

Hillary didn't do anything but prove her weirdness and inhumanity.

What if I said now, "okay, great fine, you win. Hillary completely blew Trump the fuck out." Would that make me feel any different about who to vote for? The world is fucking TOAST because of Democrats. Republican party has been cucked with neo-cons. Libertarian party is a complete joke.

There is absolutely nothing except for Trump, and he is anti-establishment. What are you going to do, vote for Hillary?

We're already here. It's not going to make any fucking difference.

(((Nate Silver)))

>Trump has ties to Cuba and Russia.
All power to the Soviets?
>Trump is also soon gonna be on trial for raping a 14 year old girl.
The bottom doesn't stop dropping.

how else can you be wrong 99% of the time but still have a career?

>be black
>voting for Hillary because Trump wants to law and order me even though I dindu nuffin
>have yet to see a Trump sign anywhere where I live
>see quite a few Hill signs
>live in Ohio
I guess I don't actually exist.

Then again Ohio is 95% rural areas and corn fields so that's probably where all the Trump voters are

>Cred Forumstard user stories are TRUE! ABOUT 4 MILLION DADS WORK AT NINTENDO!

You are a special kind of retard.

Not an argument, faggot.

>Check Breitbart
That's convincing.

Better than literally 99.9% of other media sources

>I literally just when over to nate bronze's website and the odds are not 72-28.

>nowcast

>Leaf
Opinion discarded

Spell better, google.

Newsflash: millennials hate Trump with a passion. It's one of his most consistently polled dead zones. This site is wildly out of step with their contemporaries.

How are the winds blowing that the Republican party will increasingly be White Nationalist and Authoritarian, when there are no candidates anywhere else on the ballot trying to carry the Trump doctrine forward having an easy run? It's a movement that's wholly tied into Trump's political success, or lack thereof.

>I really don't think this will be the case
It's already happening. Trumpfags are cheering every move the party leaders take to increase their control, of nominating process, of channeling money away from candidat es who buck leadership, etc., on the enemy of my enemy premise. Only once Trump is out of the picture those who'll be left standing will be the same to use that power to bar Trump followers from having any further say.

>Trump has touched a nerve that really resonates with the people that vote Republican
Yeah. Anger. And someone acting out of anger doesn't make the wisest decisions.

>If he loses then that itch will just get worse over the next 4 years and the next candidates will definitely have to address the Immigration issue at a level at least equal to Trump in order to even have a chance.
You had damn well better hope Trump's candidacy hasn't critically hurt the people left in the party willing to stand on the issue, because the leadership will want it behind them even more than before.

Hey...
...what should have Trump released if he wanted better chances...?
...Here's a hint...
...it starts with t...
...rhymes with taxes...
...it's taxes...
...he should have released his taxes.

Tony, where is the file to get that image saved in the hub? Martha just had a new batch photoshopped but I'm still behind on those few. Thanks. I asked Bill in another thread but he has yet to respond.

mostly for you're second post

Thus why 1/3 of millennials voting for a 3rd party is a good thing for trump.

I wish you were right m8, but there is a lot of really stupid people that eat the current year man's and (((John lebowitz)))'s opinions like they are gospel. Its sadly very easy to fall into the whole libtard meme if you don't bother scratching the thin veener of bullshit.

>Pretending any of those will go blue this year

You mean the Jane Doe civil suit that has zero evidence backing it up?

all the guys in contsruction ive met in
MI like trump, but idk there a shit load liberals downstate.

>Thus why 1/3 of millennials voting for a 3rd party is a good thing for trump.
Millennials are easy to manipulate. The MSM right now is savaging Gary for his recent missteps, trying to drive them back into the Clinton camp.

Bernie also got cheated out of his nomination by the DNC

Orlando here, don't be fooled into complacency. Democrats have been funneling Puerto Ricans by the boatloads over the past several months, the I4 corridor has fallen to liberalism.

Flee the US while you still can.

It's probably less damaging to not release them.
He's probably being audited for a reason.
>inb4 IRS conspiracy

Cred Forums seemed a lot more sure about Romney than they do about Trump. I think we all know he's going to lose.

You have to see the desire for something different in Millenials though. Look at how much support from Bernie came from them, and the media savaged Bernie. Not only that, but Gary is playing the Millennial card so well right now.
What we are talking about are Naive young individuals who think they can make a big difference, Gary may not take that full 1/3, but he will siphon a shit ton away from Hilary.

The IRS is used as a political attack dog you goon

ONE WORD:

BREXIT.

In 10 years of republican rule you're gonna be saying the same thing about the republicans.

Here's the real fucking red pill for you right now. You ready? Here it is. They are both the fucking same and they will both shaft common people.

Left, right, blue, red, it doesn't matter who is in charge. Corruption and military industrial complex creates false wars to siphon off our tax money, Clinton signs off on it, raking in money from either secret shares and stocks or favours once her presidential term is over.

You're a fucking moron, but you won't believe anything I say until you experience it for yourself.

See you in 10 years, don't say I didn't try to fucking tell you.

One day you'll realise that the only chance anyone had of getting a fair and prosperous America and world was Sanders. And only because he is anti Zionist, anti oligarch and anti neocon.

cringe t.bh

Your own fucking image shows that the average of the last week was certainly in Remain's favor

>implying Romney had any hype behind him
He was literally "anyone but Obama" vote

She did shit all over him in the debate

I meant to say Clinton or trump as president signs off on it

Fuck it I'm talking to idiots abandon thread

>Bernie got cheated
How?
The DNC only controlled the Caucuses and Bernie won them. The DNC doesn't control the Primaries and Bernie lost most of them. Sanders lost by a wider margin to Hillary than Hillary lost to Obama.
It was a communist Jewish conspiracy against the socialist Jew?
At least put some effort in your conspiracy theories.

>there are no candidates anywhere else on the ballot trying to carry the Trump doctrine
Trump wasn't even an option people thought possible before. Rest assured that someone (maybe Donald Jr.) will take his strategy again on the next election.

>Yeah. Anger. And someone acting out of anger doesn't make the wisest decisions.
Its not only anger, its the Immigration question in general. You can't just put that away now that its obvious that it brings so many voters. Trump is right that if he hadn't run they wouldn't even be talking about it. but pandora's box has been opened never to be shut again.

>You had damn well better hope Trump's candidacy hasn't critically hurt the people left in the party willing to stand on the issue, because the leadership will want it behind them even more than before.

The old cucks of the party have no chance of pulling enough traction again, people will study the phenomena that was Trump's campaign and will try to harness the same effect over again.

just like how rand paul tried to pull his father's fame over. Hopefully less pathetic though

Yes, yes, user. Everything that doesn't work your way is a conspiracy.

they said jeb would beat trump

ask jeb how that turned out

Wow, the chemicals in my brain are now moving in a completely different way because of the fact my eyes happened to glance over your completely unique post that was not at all banal or puerile in anyway.

Do you have something against dooooOOOOOOOOOOOGGGGSSS

Are you retarded?

are you? ;)

B-buh Cred Forums told me Trump won the debates?

and now it's only going to get worse thanks to this miss piggy thing

Humor me.

>The truth is mittens actually had a significantly closer race to Obama than Trump has had to Clinton. Trump has spent the majority of his candidacy at 20-30% odds of winning and being 4-10 points down. Mittens was 4 points down from Obama at some of his WORST dips and average a 2 to 3 point deficit.

>It's funny that people say that Romney was an obvious loss when Trump is in a significantly worse position.

Shilling this hard

>Your own fucking image shows
My own fucking image shows the thing going back and forth depending on which individual poll you pick out. But you can't pick out one poll over another like you might want to if it were a bowl of cherries for the one that looks nicest. That is one of the most basic fallacious approaches, so much so that it's called the cherry-picking fallacy. You have to take them together.

When you do this, you come away with the reality that Brexit was closely contested, most polls putting it within several points, the MoE range that was the actual result.

>Too fat for Trump.
Trump confirmed low test.

Away with you demshill

When was Romney contesting fucking Rhode Island and Minnesota?
When did Romney even have a chance to flip Pennsylvania?
When was Romney ahead in Ohio, ever?

Kek, is this based on the Reuters poll where they over-sampled Dems by 11%?

>On suicide watch
Should you be referring to Nate Bronze?

Got $100 on the cops finding him swinging from his ceiling fan on the morning of Nov. 9th. Bookie was a tight wad about giving me even 3:1 odds with Bronzes current track record.

sweet god he was right

I'm sorry for triggering you.
I will ask Chinese moot to delete my replies.

>Bernie cuck is still butthurt his communist candidate got shafted by Clinton.

Bernie wasn't gonna change shit, if anything he would've mae the US resemble Canada after his 4 years. The last thing we need is more Pozz getting pumped out of the US.

Trump is the only real candidate that is going against the grain, why do you think the media has gone out of their way to shit on him on Every Single Chance They Get? He is the only candidate that actually shows sympathy for the working class. And i mean the ACTUAL working class, not the rentseeking NEETs that want gibs because their liberal arts degree cant get them a job.

Trump may not be perfect and he may not do all the things he is promising, but he is at least a sign that America is getting more comfortable with the idea of going more to the Right. And thats good enough for me to support him.

Thanks again for correcting the record!
> .07 slices of cheap pizza have been deposited into your stomach.

>Not even factoring the J Cox false flag
Why are you so fucking disingenuous, it was a near certainty that Brexit would fail

>a near certainty
Such a statement ought not include 5 polls to 8 showing a leave sentiment even when you TRY to cherry pick.