My vote is for 3 Billboards - just based on buzz and controversial appeal
>According to based Kermode, the movie that has the most chances of winning is Lady Bird because it's not as controversial or divisive as others. So while some critics will probably vote down Get Out, Three Billboards or Shape out of spite, Lady Bird will only get positive votes and take hom teh award
>dude kill all men >all men are rapists >i'm a stupid irrational cunt >let's use humor to diffuse the tension literally every scene this is all i got outside of that billboard flick. garbage.
this is the kind of quality film criticism i come to Cred Forums for
m8 you're not wrong but I think the character archs are somewhat rewarding and ppl are getting that as their takeaway rather than the shit remarks you pointed out
Ladybird is my guess. The last couple of years, the unexpected film has won. 3 Billboards is the obvious favourite, followed by The Shape Of Water. Also, Ladybird is the only one with a female director
This is how the Oscars will go >"Drumpf will not divide us as Americans" >#MeToo >some shit movie that had some gay political message will win first place, preferably one with a nonwhite lead actor >Some rich as fuck celebrity will give a lecture to white middle America "That their time is up"
Only lasr year was it unexpected. Spotlight was an obvious win in 2016.
Probably Three Billboards or Shape of Water. Of the 4 films I've seen that have been nominated, I liked Dunkirk the best and Darkest Hour the least.
It was between Spotlight and the Revenant in 2015, with the Revenant being the more mainstream expected film. And the year before, Birdman won over Boyhood which was the clear favourite
If Lady Bird won I'd be really disappointed.
>2018 >caring about oscars
Oscars haven't meant shit for like a decade. Its just a who has the blackest or most female cast award
I get Kermode's rationale, TSOW and 3B voters might be at the end of opposing spectrum (e.g. I vote SOW at #1 but 3B at #7). But I highly doubt many would put Lady Bird at #2. I'd say Get Out has a better chance to profit from the split vote (and I will hate it) Also to me it seems like Oscar voters are lazy these days (nomination for Denzel, Mudbound cinematographer, Peele) so I highly doubt they won't just vote for 3B and call it a day. So, Will Win: 3B Should Win: CMBYN
If Black Panther don't win there gonna be riots!
I watch the Oscars only for the technical categories and for the occasional meme fuck ups. All the big categories are completely worthless really
Your completely worthless really!
>Should Win: CMBYN Haha fuck no. This is like babbies first European film with paper thin characters acting irrationally (his ex gf just forgives him no reason cause lol can't have loose ends) and an obnoxious 4th wall breaking speech where the happily married father tells the son (the audience) how great a month long gay sex fest was and how the love involved was way more pure than any straight married couple. It was a pretty good film until the last half hour though
I'm sure you won't say that if BR2049 gets nominated for BP
Really hope Phantom Thread comes in and makes a massive upset. Best Picture, 4th Oscar for based DDL, Best Director for PTA. No fucking politics and a fantastic movie. I just can't see it winning because it didn't have enough politics and had an all white cast. If Phantom Thread wins then the Oscars have some genuine integrity, if Get Out wins they are pathetic.
I'd take Get Out over TSOW any day. But yeah, Phantom Thread is /our film/
>best movie not even nominated >the two by far best sure won't win
>>best movie not even nominated Which is?
Didn't Three Billboards also have an all white cast?
Pitch Perfect 3 you tard
You missed the point of Three Billboards. I think its pretty funny how people are praising Frances Mcdormand's character for being a "strong female women who don't take no shit" when the whole point of the movie is that she is acting stupidly and irrationally because of her anger and grief and her arc ends in her realizing this after she burns dickson and sees him take out the case of her daughter as she is burning alive. Dicksons character arc was just as good and very similar. It was a fantastic movie, wouldn't mind if it won but still want Phantom Thread to.
No it has a couple of black characters. They aren't in it much but work well in the movie.
>the most chances of winning is Lady Bird i'm totally OK with this desu
>>According to based Kermode, the movie that has the most chances of winning is Lady Bird because it's not as controversial or divisive as others. Once again Kermode just shows how much of an idealist retard he is. So what if it's not controversial? Lady Bird has won jack shit at all the other award ceremonies. At this point it's just a clear tossup between Three Billboards and Shape of Water.